February 14, 2011



http://www.suddenlysenior.com/jokeslatest....

February 10. 2011

More Welfare for Wall Street

QE 2 Sets Off Inflation Alarms

By MIKE WHITNEY

Ever since he launched the second round of his bond-buying program (QE2), Ben Bernanke has been on a roll. The S&P has gained 10 percent and the economic data has improved dramatically. Manufacturing and retail have rebounded, consumer confidence has started to brighten, and personal consumption (PCE) is on the rise. Car sales, hotel occupancy and exports are all up, too. Even the banks seem to be more eager to lend than they were just a few months ago. Only housing is still in the doldrums and the Fed chairman probably has something up his sleeve for that, too.

Perma-bear Marc Faber thinks he's figured out the secret of Bernanke's recent successes. He says, "Never underestimate the power of printing money." Indeed. Only, in this case, an asset swap of US Treasurys for bank reserves works just as well as a printing press. Bernanke simply buys up boatloads of Treasurys from the banks and, "Voila", investors flock to riskier assets like lemmings to a cliff. And, just look at the results. Stocks keep climbing higher and higher, and everyone is happy. Well, almost everyone.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker is not happy and he's taken his grousing to the press. Lacker thinks that Bernanke should heed the market's warnings and back off while he still can.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0210201...

February 8, 2011

How to Make $4 Trillion Vanish in a Flash

Why Another Financial Crash is Certain

By MIKE WHITNEY

On August 9, 2007, an incident took place at a bank in France that touched-off a financial crisis that that would eventually wipe out more than $30 trillion in capital and thrust the world into the deepest slump since the Great Depression. The event was recounted in a speech by Pimco's managing director Paul McCulley, at the 19th Annual Hyman Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies. Here's an excerpt from McCulley's speech:

"If you have to pick a day for the Minsky Moment, it was August 9. And, actually, it didn’t happen here in the United States. It happened in France, when Paribas Bank (BNP) said that it could not value the toxic mortgage assets in three of its off-balance sheet vehicles, and that, therefore, the liability holders, who thought they could get out at any time, were frozen. I remember the day like my son’s birthday. And that happens every year. Because the unraveling started on that day. In fact, it was later that month that I actually coined the term “Shadow Banking System” at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole.

“It was only my second year there. And I was in awe, and mainly listened for most of the three days. At the end....I stood up and (paraphrasing) said, ‘What’s going on is really simple. We’re having a run on the Shadow Banking System and the only question is how intensely it will self-feed as its assets and liabilities are put back onto the balance sheet of the conventional banking system.’”

BNP had been involved in credit intermediation, that is, it was exchanging bonds made up of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for short-term loans in the repo market. It all sounds very complex, but it's no different than what banks do when they take deposits from customers and then invest the money in long-term assets. (aka--"maturity transformation") The only difference here was that these activities were not regulated, so no government agency was involved in determining the quality of the loans or making sure that the various financial institutions were sufficiently capitalized to cover potential losses. This lack of regulation turned out to have dire consequences for the global economy.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0208201...

By Susan Antilla


Politicians are making like Santa Claus and asking business for wish lists of regulations it would like to get rid of.

Rich people are heading out for shopping sprees at Tiffany & Co. and not feeling ashamed about it anymore.

One economist at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, is even hyping an imminent “super-cycle” of global economic growth. And to think we’ve been stressing about trifles like fat, dangerous banks that could bring down the economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/b...

An Emerging Bubble Alert

January 6, 2011

By MIKE WHITNEY

Counterfeiting is an effective way to stimulate the economy, but the costs can be quite high. For example, if trillions of dollars in fake cash was injected into the financial system (undetected), we'd probably see the same type of thing that we see when a credit bubble is inflating; asset prices would rise, unemployment would fall, economic activity would increase, and GDP would soar. But when people figured out what was going on, investors would panic, the markets would crash, and the economy would go into a deflationary nosedive.

So here's the point: Deregulation allows the banks to create as much bogus money as they want in the form of credit. When a bank issues a loan to someone who can't repay the debt, it's counterfeiting, which is the same as stealing. This is what the banks did in the lead-up to the Market Meltdown of '08; they issued trillions of dollars of mortgages to people who had no job, no income, no collateral, and a bad credit history. The banks abandoned all the standard criteria for issuing loans, so they could increase the quantity of loans they produced. Why? Because bankers get paid on the front-end of the transaction, which means that when they make a loan, they mark it as a credit on their books so they can draw a hefty salary and a fat bonus at the end of the year. In other words, there are powerful incentives for bankers to do the wrong thing, which is why they act the way they do.

Now that the economy has begun to stabilize, there are signs that the whole process is starting over again and another bubble is already emerging. Check out this clip from an article in The Tennessean titled "Auto lenders approve more subprime borrowers":

"As the auto industry continues to make a slow recovery from tough times of the past two years, lenders are finally loosening credit restrictions and approving car loans for customers with less than prime credit ratings. In the third quarter last year, for instance, the share of new vehicle loans to "credit-challenged" consumers rose 12.7 percent compared with the same period in 2009, said Experian, one of the nation's major credit reporting agencies.

Loans to borrowers with subprime credit scores as low as 550 were among categories that grew the most....Credit restrictions were the biggest reason people stopped buying new cars during the recession, but "that's not a problem anymore," said Marty Horn, sales manager at Nashville's Crown Ford.

"We're not having any trouble finding financing for anyone with a score in the 600s," he said. "We can get most people financed through Ford Credit, and if that's not available, we have other lenders ready to step in."...

"We're seeing loans of up to 140 percent of value from some lenders, and Capital One is by far our best lender for the subprime customer, which is below a 620 score," said Michael Creque, general manager of Alexander Chevrolet-Cadillac in Murfreesboro." ("Auto lenders approve more subprime borrowers", The Tennessean)

Can you believe it? Auto finance companies are lending up to "140 percent of value" of the loan to "credit-challenged" consumers? And this is going on just two years after the biggest meltdown since the Great Depression.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0106201...

By John R. Talbott

Bestselling author of The Coming Crash in the Housing Market

As reported on HuffPost last week, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has expressed opposition to the possible nomination of Elizabeth Warren to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to a source with knowledge of Geithner's views.

One can assume that Geithner, being very close to the nation's biggest banks, is concerned that Warren, if chosen, will exercise her new policing and enforcement powers to restrict those abusive practices at our commercial banks that have been harmful to consumers and depositors.

Certainly, Warren is not the commercial banking industry's first pick to serve in this new role. And unlike other legislation in which an industry's lobbying effort would naturally slow or cease once the legislation is passed, the new financial reform bill is continuing to attract enormous lobbying action from the banks. The reason is simple. The bill has been written to put a great deal of power as to how strongly it is implemented in the hands of its regulators, some of which remain to be chosen. The bank lobby will work incredibly hard to see that Warren, the person most responsible for initiating and fighting for the idea of a consumer financial protection group, is denied the opportunity to head it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-r-talbo... ?

By Mike Whitney

April 22, 2010


Going ... Going ... Uh ... Still Going

Housing has been going sideways for seven months now, mainly due to lax lending standards (at FHA), the Firsttime Homebuyers Credit, and the Fed's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) buyback program. But once the props are removed, the market will fall sharply.

So where's the real demand for housing?

Here's a hint: There isn't any.

The market's in a shambles, decimated by years of fraud and perfidy. What was once a booming industry is now a abscess-ridden corpse that buyers are avoiding like the plague. And who can blame them? A new home is no longer a symbol of status and upward mobility, but a millstone to be shed at the earliest possible opportunity. The industry is facing an insurmountable PR challenge; how to take a "sow's ear" and stitch it into a Gucci purse. Good luck with that. Low interest rates and federal subsidies alone won't do the trick.

Despite the media-hype and cheery forecasts, the downhill slide has already begun. Here's the lowdown from Realty Check which sums it up pretty well:

"The average number of days from when a borrower stops paying on his/her mortgage to when the bank sends out the first foreclosure notice is 417....And the final foreclosure can take up to a year more. The government's Home Affordable Modification Program, which today the Inspector General for the TARP wrote, "has made little progress in stemming the onslaught".... is simply delaying the inevitable and in some cases kicking the can and the cost down the road for borrowers who will inevitably redefault and for taxpayers who will foot the bill." (Diana Olick Realty Check, CNBC)

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0422201...

Weekend Edition
April 23 - 25, 2010

By Mike Whitney

William Black Charges "Massive, Fraudulent Transactions"

Prof. William Black submitted a 24-page report on the Lehman bankruptcy to the House Committee on Financial Services on Tuesday. It is the best analysis of the underlying causes of the financial crisis to date. Black, who is a former government regulator and white-collar criminologist, shows that the crisis was not an unavoidable disaster, as Wall Street apologists suggest, but the result of large-scale fraud perpetrated by financial institutions like Lehman Brothers. The incidents of fraud were numerous, blatant, extreme and premeditated. In making his case against Lehman, Black exposes the omissions, failures and negligence of the primary regulators, particularly the Fed. Had the Fed not been derelict in its duties, the cyclical downturn would not have turned into a near-Depression.

"Lehman’s failure is a story in large part of fraud," Black said in his testimony before the House. "Lehman was the leading purveyor of liars’ loans in the world. For most of this decade, studies of liars’ loans show incidence of fraud of 90per cent. ... If you want to know why we have a global crisis, in large part it is before you."

As the Litigation Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L crisis, Black knows what he's talking about. He was so dogged in his investigation that Charles Keating "directed his chief political fixer that his ‘Highest Priority’ was to ‘Get Black … Kill him Dead.’” But Black didn't buckle or give ground. He shrugged off the threats and continued to expose unsound practices and illegal activity. His team faced the same challenges that regulators face today, "elite frauds" by powerful institutions that wield tremendous political power.

Black's statement cuts through much of the ideological claptrap surrounding the crisis and shows that deregulation is really the decriminalization of fraud. The notion that the market can "regulate itself" has been jettisoned altogether and public support for reform is gaining momentum.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0423201...

on April 19, 2010 6:36 AM

It's interesting and instructive to read The New York Times' lead story this morning, Top Goldman Leaders Said to Have Overseen Mortgage Unit. While it pretends to report all the particulars of the huge scandal growing out of Friday's SEC action against Goldman Sachs, the story really comes off as an attempt to create an alibi for the so-called "bank." It pretends that some kind of an intellectual struggle was going on among GS executives as to whether the housing market was doing just fine or poised to tank -- therefore muddling the company's intent in setting up investment deals based on sketchy mortgages designed to blow up so that a favored big customer, John Paulson, could collect on the deal insurance known as credit default swaps.

The truth is that anyone with half a brain could see the securitized mortgage fiasco coming from ten-thousand miles away. I said as much in Chapter Six ("Running on Fumes: the Hallucinated Economy") of my book The Long Emergency, which was published in 2005 but written well before that in 2002-4. And I had had no work experience whatsoever in banking generally or Wall Street investment banking in particular.

One week before the SEC action against GS, the Pro Publica website published a story about virtually the same kind of mischief being run out of the Chicago-based hedge fund Magnetar led by a clever young fellow named Alec Litowitz. Like Goldman Sachs, Magnetar deliberately constructed investments (bundles of bundled mortgage-backed securities called collateralized debt obligations) that were certain to fail so that Magnetar could collect on credit default swaps that amounted to a bet against products they themselves had participated in creating. There was no question that Litowitz and his employees did this absolutely on purpose. Nor is there any question that they aggressively sold positions in these CDOs to credulous investors like Thrivent Financial for Lutherans and others.

http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/04/wheres-ri...

By Mike Whitney

Where are the Regulators Who Will Regulate?

weekend edition April 16-18th 2010

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knows that High-Frequency Trading (HFT) manipulates the market and bilks investors out of tens of billions of dollars every year. But SEC chairman Mary Schapiro refuses to step in and take action. Instead, she's concocted an elaborate "information gathering" scheme, that does nothing to address the main problem. Schapiro's plan--to track large blocks of trades by large institutional investors-- is an attempt to placate congress while the big Wall Street HFT traders to continue to rake in obscene profits. It achieves nothing, except provide the cover Schapiro needs to avoid doing her job.

High-frequency trading (HFT) is algorithmic-computer trading that finds "statistical patterns and pricing anomalies" by scanning the various stock exchanges. It's high-speed robo-trading that oftentimes executes orders without human intervention. But don't be confused by all the glitzy "state-of-the-art" technology. HFT is not a way of "allocating capital more efficiently", but of ripping people off in broad daylight.

It all boils down to this: HFT allows one group of investors to see the data on other people's orders ahead of time and use their supercomputers to buy in front of them. It's called frontloading, and it goes on every day right under Schapiros nose.

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney0416201...

Monday, April 5, 2010

A fight is brewing in Washington – or, at the least, it ought to be brewing – over whether to put limits on the size of financial entities in order that none becomes “too big to fail” in a future financial crisis.

Some background: The big banks that got federal bailouts, as well as their supporters in the Administration and on the Hill, repeatedly say much of the cost of the giant taxpayer-funded bailout has already been repaid to the federal government by the banks that were bailed out. Hence, the actual cost of the bailout, they argue, is a small fraction of the $700 billion Congress appropriated.

True, but the apologists for the bailout leave out one gargantuan cost — the damage to the economy, which we’re still living with (witness the latest unemployment figures). Leave it to the Brits to calculate this. Andrew Haldane, Bank of England’s Financial Stability Director, figures the financial crisis brought on by irresponsible bankers and regulators has cost the world economy about $4 trillion so far.

http://robertreich.org/post/498741821/brea...

No Jobs Recovery
By Robert Reich,
02 April 2010

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in March. Great news until you look more closely. In March, the federal government began hiring census takers big time. These are six-month temp jobs, and they tell us nothing about underlying trends in the labor market. It's hard to gauge precisely how many were hired - probably between 100,000 and 140,000, although some estimates put the hiring as low as 48,000. Almost a million census workers will need to be hired over the next few months. Subtract these, and today's job numbers are good but nothing to write home about.

There are some positive signs. Manufacturing payrolls expanded a bit, heath care employers added 27,000 jobs, and about 40,000 private-sector temp jobs were added. But payrolls continue to be slashed in financial services and the information industry.

Two big things to bear in mind:




http://readersupportednews.org/opinion/41-...

Elizabeth Warren

Bad news for commercial real estate and the economy:

By the end of 2010, about half of all commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater, said Elizabeth Warren, chairperson of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel, in a wide-ranging interview on Monday.

“They are concentrated in the mid-sized banks,” Warren told CNBC. “We now have 2,988 banks—mostly midsized, that have these dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending."

As a result, the economy will face another “very serious problem” that will have to be resolved over the next three years, she said, adding that things are unlikely to return to normalcy in 2010.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/36085517

I agree with this:

Speaking on troubled mortgage lenders, Warren said it’s time for the government to "pull the plug" on mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2010/03/el...

Fraud on the Street
By Robert Reich,
30 March 2010

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Monday it had begun an inquiry into two dozen financial companies to determine whether they followed accounting practices similar to those recently disclosed in an investigation of Lehman Brothers.

Where on earth has the SEC been?

It’s now clear Lehman Brothers’ balance sheet was bogus before the bank collapsed in 2008, catapulting the Street and the world into the worse financial crisis since 1929. The Lehman bankruptcy examiner’s recent report details what just about everyone on the Street has known since the firm imploded – that Lehman defrauded its investors. Even Hank Paulson, in his recent memoir, referred to Lehman’s balance sheet as bogus.

http://robertreich.org/post/485015444/frau...