http://www.democraticunderground.com http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:40:41 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:40:41 My husband is voting for Obama this November -- the first time in 37 years of voting he's ever voted for a democratic candidate for president. Why? He's a fiscal conservative. All our lives in the business world we had both voted for a lot of Republicans, because they were the party "for small busin... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/39 Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:59:54 I lived in northeastern Missouri for 23 years before moving up to Illinois last year (I'm now in Hastert's old district which elected democratic Bill Foster last March.) This past weekend I decided to visit my old stomping grounds and do some canvassing and I am FIRED UP AND READY TO GO!

The Obam... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/38 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 12:08:15 that will come in handy, I think. I was reading another blog earlier, and a RWer sneeringly said that this act passed 90-8 in the senate, and that Biden voted for it and McCain did not vote. He then directed to this:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=s1999-354

which seemed to confi... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/37 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:31:08 1) If the DNC wants to prevent another state jumping in front of the line in 2012, they will need to impose sanctions on FL and MI this Saturday. My initial thought was to split the pledged delegate vote in half and strip all the super delegates of their vote. On further consideration, it would be d... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/36 Wed, 28 May 2008 11:55:21 Here's the super delegate tracking history since January from DCW

..........HC....BO......HC Lead..HC%
1/13...165....69..........96......71%
1/20...171....77..........94......69%
1/27...184....88..........96......68%
2/3....198...105..........93......65%
2/10...224...127..........97......6... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/35 Tue, 06 May 2008 12:43:22 Making all thier delegates super delegates would not only reward them, it would COMPLETELY discount the voters in both states.

My solution:

1) Make each pledged delegate worth half a vote
2) Give uncommitted delegates to Obama in MI
3) Super delegates from both states receive NO vote, as the... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/34 Mon, 05 May 2008 08:55:03 Early in April I [link:www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5412549&mesg_id=5412863|theorized] that the SD's would start endorsing Obama by one's and two's -- staying under the radar as the focus stayed on the primary races. I predicted that by Oregon/Ken... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/33 Sun, 27 Apr 2008 17:14:16 In fact, the only math thread put up by a Clinton supporter was soundly debunked as flummery.

There is nothing fuzzy about the reality of 408 PD's in the remaining contests.

There is nothing fuzzy about the reality of 1627 being the majority of the total 3253 PD's.

There is nothing fuzzy ab... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/32 Fri, 25 Apr 2008 11:14:03 Anyone been wondering how it all began with the super delegates back in January? Here's the weekly tracking record from [link:demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html|DemConWatch]. I added today's totals at the bottom, just FYI. In a little over 3 months, Hillary has added... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/31 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:11:53 [u]Six[/u] for Clinton
4-16-08 - Aleita Huguenin (CA)
4-17-08 - Add-on Jim Florio (NJ)#
4-17-08 - Add-on Brendan Byrne (NJ)#
4-18-08 - Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)
4-19-08 - Rep. Tim Ryan (OH)
4-20-08 - DNC Moretta Bosley (KY)

[u]Eight[/u] for Obama
4-16-08 - Rep. Andre Carson (IN)
4-16-08 - ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/30 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:03:00 Puerto Rico has 55 delegates in play on June 1.

According to various sources at DemConWatch, Obama's lead over Clinton in pledged delegates is anywhere form 163 to 168.

Assuming an apportionment of delegates that parallels popular vote (more on that below), here is her net delegate gain if she... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/29 Sun, 20 Apr 2008 17:22:18 [u]Five for Clinton[/u]
4-12-08 - DNC Taling Taitano
4-16-08 - Aleita Huguenin (CA)
4-17-08 - Add-on Jim Florio (NJ)#
4-17-08 - Add-on Brendan Byrne (NJ)#
4-18-08 - Rep. Betty Sutton (OH)

[u]Seven for Obama[/u]
4-13-08 - DNC Nancy Larson (MN)
4-16-08 - Rep. Andre Carson (IN)
4-16-08... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/28 Fri, 18 Apr 2008 22:26:20 Obama's quote:

"You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/27 Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:23:48 It's been interesting to note the parallels in history. For those who speak of Obama as an empty suit who happens to be good with words, here's some widely held public opinion on Lincoln's candidacy on the first page of "Team of Rivals:"

"The conduct of the republican party in this nomination is ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/26 Tue, 08 Apr 2008 10:17:48 Right now the whole country is concerned about the super delegates "deciding" the nominee, so look what they're doing. They're trickling in one or two at a time -- not enough to make headlines anywhere except at websites like DU. If they came in [i]en masse[/i], it'd be all over the news that they'd... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/25 Mon, 07 Apr 2008 00:42:58 Remember the story of Babe Ruth pointing out just where he was going to hit that home run? That's just how Obama's spreadsheet strikes me. Just take a look at his "predictions" leaked to the press right after Super Tuesday. Obama's got game.

[div class="excerpt"][b]Revisiting The Obama Delegate S... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/24 Sat, 05 Apr 2008 13:09:14 ...in the threads discussing brokered conventions. There is quite a misperception as to the public's "right" to select a party's candidate, but from what I've seen, a party does a lot better when they pay some attention to the voters. Some historian could shed a lot of light on this (and make some m... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/23 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 18:06:19 When I heard that Obama was giving a major speech in NY, I wondered why he chose to give it there. Then I heard it was to be at Cooper Union, and I got it.

Folks, there are some fascinating parallels here:

Both Obama and Lincoln from Illinois, with few years in a political office. Lincoln had ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/22 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 12:43:53 will change the perception of how he wins it. Right now, per AP's totals, Obama has 1406 pledged delegates and 214 super delegates, for a total of 1620. There's about 330 uncommitted super D's left. We've got 476 pledged delegates available in the upcoming races:

4/22 PA for 158
5/6 NC for 115
... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/21 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 19:48:21 Just for comparison, here's how much larger the turnout was in some of the primary races since later February:

[u][b]State...2004.......2008.....increased[/b][/u]
MD.....615,188.....846,876.....x1.38
VA.....396,181.....977,586.....x2.47
WI.....826,250...1,100,805.....x1.33
VT......82,881........ http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/20 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:54:10 Spring has sprung
The grass is riz
Still wondrin' who the winner is.

It might be he,
It could be she.
When this thing's done
Let's still be WE.


Happy first day of spring, fellow GD-P DUers! :toast: ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/19 Thu, 20 Mar 2008 12:36:29 We've heard a lot in the M$M and right here in GD-P about how unfair caucuses are because they don't reflect the will of the people -- the implied but unstated correlate to this is that the primaries DO reflect the will of the people via popular vote. The Nevada caucus was especially pointed out as ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/18 Mon, 17 Mar 2008 13:29:40 Per CNN, total vote in MS democratic primary:
Obama 255,809 + Clinton 155,686 = 411,495

Per exit polls, 12% are self described Republicans
12% of 411,495 = 49,379

Per exit polls, 75% of Republicans voting chose Clinton
75% of 49,379 = 37,034

37,034 = 23.8% of 155,686
Therefore, 23.8% ... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/17 Wed, 12 Mar 2008 20:47:43 There has been a lot of talk about what will happen if Obama wins the most pledged delegates but Hillary wins the popular vote, but no one (that I know of) has offered any mathematical constructs showing the margins she will need to surpass Obama in the popular vote. Let's crunch some numbers.

Th... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/16 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 22:35:51 I used the AP and Green Papers sources at [link:demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/ultimate-delegate-tracker.html|DemConWatch] to determine how many pledged candidates would be needed by each to achieve the majority of PD's. I came up with Clinton needing 61% vs 39% for Obama if FL and MI remain exclu... http://journals.democraticunderground.com/TheDoorbellRang/15 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 16:46:48