and lurkers. Talking Dog, for what it's worth, I've felt this fall would be a critical juncture and posted it in the SWT pool. My reasoning is part history, part experience, part fact.

My history/experience/fact...in Houston, when the S&L scandal first hit, we had high oil prices due to the Arab embargo residual (local Houston based oil companies had surplus funds)so at first the Real Estate market held up. But as things slowed down (the 87 Crash), oil dropped and folks were laid off en mass. These lay offs combined with those adjusting ARM loans (they were called Balloon Mortgages then) started coming due-causing more S&L's to go belly up (they actually were fairly sound-no shady deals-just victims of others mis dealings). The time span from S&L scandal to RE bust was almost 1+ years, after which the hole just got deeper. In our current market, most folks look back now and say the switched in August last year. If August was the earthquake, these interest rate drop, layoffs, and foreclosure are ripples that are swelling into a Tsunami. I expect the full force will start hitting fall and winter.

I'm not an eCONomist, but I see something similar in the graphs and anecdotal evidence of the Great Depression. You had a bad day and the market went down but 'rallied' around 1931, but eventual finished even lower than the initial crash after 1931. I think we are following that graph closer than most financial folks care to admit. Hey, I could be eating ground glass here and I will admit my mistakes but the world situation has changed and I don't think we will get out of this crash as easily as our politicians think.

And speaking of politicians....I will be in Washington DC this evening and staying until Saturday evening. I will be completing my National CPR, AED, and First Aid Instructor certification. I am just thrilled to go there again. I have my camera at the ready and have a list of new things I want to see.

So for a theme song today I would like to suggest a little Beatles.....

I'm looking through you, where did you go
I thought I knew you, what did I know
You don't look different, but you have changed
I'm looking through you, you're not the same

Your lips are moving, I cannot hear
Your voice is soothing, but the words aren't clear
You don't sound different, I've learned the game.
I'm looking through you, you're not the same

Why, tell me why, did you not treat me right?
Love has a nasty habit of disappearing overnight

You're thinking of me, the same old way
You were above me, but not today
The only difference is you're down there
I'm looking through you, and you're nowhere

<snip>

I'm looking through you, where did you go
I thought I knew you, what did I know
You don't look different, but you have changed
I'm looking through you, you're not the same

<snip>


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.