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Febble's Journal
Posted by Febble in General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)
Fri Aug 11th 2006, 02:38 PM
here it is:




1250 precincts, with raw data: on the vertical axis is the swing to Bush (the amount by which he increased/decreased his share of the two-party vote) and on the horizontal axis is the RAW PRECINCT LEVEL EXIT POLL DISCREPANCY measured in z scores that represent how far from zero the discrepancy was relative to what would be expected if the only error was sampling error (see TIA's posts to find out what sampling error is, if you don't know). Roughly, anything with a z score of more than 2 or less than -2 shouldn't happen in more than 95% of precincts IF the only source of error is sampling error.

As you can see, there are a fair number of precincts with z scores lower than -2 (means that Kerry did better than the exit poll suggested) but a great many more precincts with z scores higher than 2 (means that Bush did better than the exit poll suggested). From this we can conclude that there was something other than sampling error going on (could be non-sampling error, could be fraud) and that more of it was going in Bush's direction than Kerry's.

But the point about this plot is that there is NO TENDENCY for Bush to DO BETTER RELATIVE TO 2000 where he DID BETTER RELATIVE TO THE EXIT POLL.

So the "tell-tale" precinct level RAW data (no weighting, no nothing) tells the tale that whatever was causing the exit poll discrepancy didn't seem to have much effect on Bush's vote. Which rather suggests to me that that something wasn't fraud (which would).

So there you have it, PP. Tell-tale precinct raw data. And the tale it tells. If it's telling anything else (and it could be, although I've interrogated it pretty thoroughly), then perhaps you'd like to suggest what.
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