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FogerRox's Journal
Posted by FogerRox in General Discussion (1/22-2007 thru 12/14/2010)
Sun Jun 22nd 2008, 11:52 PM
The report is owned by the Indians, its proprietary, not in the public domain. THe USGS has only used seismic data in its studies. Seismic data that shows a very fragmented field.

Back to the EIA
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anw...

Quote:
ANWR Production Uncertainties

There is much uncertainty regarding the impact of opening ANWR on U.S. oil production and imports, due to several factors:

* The size of the underlying resource base. There is little direct knowledge regarding the petroleum geology of the ANWR region. The USGS oil resource estimates are based largely on the oil productivity of geologic formations that exist in the neighboring State lands and which continue into ANWR. Consequently, there is considerable uncertainty regarding both the size and quality of the oil resources that exist in ANWR. Thus, the potential ultimate oil recovery and potential yearly production are highly uncertain.
* Oil field sizes. The size of the oil fields found in ANWR is one factor that will determine the rate at which ANWR oil resources are developed and produced. If the reservoirs are larger than expected, then production would be greater in the 2018 through 2025 timeframe. Similarly, if the reservoirs are smaller than expected, then production would be less.
* The quality of the oil and the characteristics of the oil reservoirs. Oil field production rates are also determined by the quality of oil found, e.g., viscosity and paraffin content, and the field’s reservoir characteristics, i.e., its depth, permeability, faulting, and water saturation. This analysis assumes oil quality and reservoir characteristics similar to those associated with the Prudhoe Bay field. If, for example, the oil discovered in ANWR has a considerably higher viscosity than the Prudhoe Bay field oil, e.g., over 10,000 centipoise, then oil production rates would be lower than projected in this analysis.


Thats what you get from KIC#1, drilled in 1985, results never made public.
http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/ern/01a...

Remember Badami ? Turned out to be a a fragmented field, with heavy oil
fficial&hs=fk6&pwst=1&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=Badami+arctic+oil&spell=1" target="_blank">http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=...

And Badami is what 30 miles from ANWAR ? Low porosity and heavy oil means low production.

Badami 8 rsevoir penatrations:

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/36...
BP said they would get 35kbpd

newsbank - really long url
But Badami produced 5k bpd, then declined to 1350bpd, then shut down

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/36...

Only 30 miles away Anwar is supposed to produce 1.4bpd ? Based on a USGS survey that never pushed a drill bit 5 inches.....frick brilliant citation.

This is why I laff my ass off when someone mentions Anwar as some sort of cure all, I'll start with Aurora.

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/document...

http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/product...

As you can see Aurora was an off shore well, quite close to KIC.

Quote:
However, since ANWR was established in 1960, exploration in the region has been restricted to surface geological investigations, aeromagnetic surveys, and two winter seismic surveys (in 1983-84 and 1984-85). No exploratory drilling has been accomplished in the area except for one well commenced in the winter of 1984-85 on Kaktovik Inupiat Corporation and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation lands southeast of Kaktovik on the Coastal Plain.
http://www.anwr.org/backgrnd/potent.html


The only drilling data the USGS claims to have is from slant or offset drilling, because the only 2 wells ever drilled in Anwar, are private, the USGS cites recent offset drilling in the 1999 report. Your guess is as good as mine which off shore rig they used. Warthog, Stimson Aurora, I dont know. I cant find any indication any of these rigs are even still there.

Its clear Anwar at best is fragmented, and of low quality, API as low as 19.
http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/product...

Compounding production problems are the numerous fractures, meaning water injection cannot be used, as the water will follow the cracks and destroy the ability to any reasonable production.

The case for drilling is that the same formations at Prudhoe Bay continue into area 1002.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...


Fractured anticlines and fingering says this isnt so. Badami maybe an example of this.
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