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GOPBasher's Journal
Posted by GOPBasher in General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)
Tue Mar 25th 2008, 09:53 PM
Supporters of Both Candidates Are Killing Us

Remember when this was going to be our year? The unpopular war and deep economic turmoil made the country ripe for a Democratic victory in the presidential election and increased majorities in both houses of Congress. So, why is the presumptive Republican nominee beating both Democratic candidates? The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on March 25 shows McCain ahead of Obama, 50% - 41%, and Clinton, 48% - 43% (poll 1).

That same poll reveals the major reason. Only 71% of Democrats say they’d vote for Clinton in the general election, and just 64% say the same of Obama (poll 1). Neither can even get three-fourths of their own party. That makes it more or less impossible to win a general election, and it’s what one would expect from long, negative, dirty primary campaign. All that negative advertising has its effect, you know. It drives up the negative ratings of the other candidate, now at 52% for each (poll 1). The problem, of course, is that such a strategy will help one’s candidate win the primary, but will kill one’s party in the general election. So, we did it once again, fellow Democrats; we never fail to shoot ourselves in the foot and commit political suicide. We just find new and cooler ways of doing so.

We have other problems, of course. This year, they started when the Republicans settled on a nominee fairly quickly, and he, John McCain, essentially started his general election campaign. Furthermore, of all the GOP candidates running, he was, by far, the most electable. (With Romney or Huckabee, I don’t think we have anything to worry about.) McCain has tremendous appeal among independents, and that’s his political strength. Furthermore, we did not nominate our most electable candidate; polls early in the primary season showed that John Edwards always faired better against the Republicans than other Democrats. Still, we would be able to overcome these problems with a united Democratic party.

Imagine how the numbers in the general election trial heats would start moving if all (or, at least, 90%-95%) of the supporters of each candidate would vote for the other in the general election? In other words, the source of my greatest angst is also the source of my greatest hope. If we can unite for the general election, we’ll win. An extensive Pew Research Center poll in the first two months of 2008 showed the Democrats with huge advantages in party identification. Fifty-one percent of Americans either consider themselves Democrats or are independents who lean that way; just 37% are Republicans or independents who lean toward the GOP (poll 2).

The damage is not yet fatal, but primary that lasts until the convention surely will be.

Poll 1: (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con... ).

Poll 2: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-vote...
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