http://www.alternet.org/election08/85549

The Poblano Effect: Obama Could Score Huge Electoral Victory over McCain
By Josh Kalven, Progress Illinois. Posted May 17, 2008.

If the huge African-American turnout numbers Obama received in the primaries occurs on Nov. 5, Obama could win 350 electoral votes.

During an April 25 conference call to unveil the Obama campaign's 50-state voter registration drive, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand sounded genuinely exasperated as he tried to steer reporters to the topic at hand.

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But some new data indicates that, come November 5, we may find ourselves looking back at this year's intensive voter mobilization efforts as what put Obama -- and down-ballot Democrats nationwide -- over the top.

The Poblano Model

This new data was generated by the anonymous 30-year-old author of the website FiveThirtyEight.com. A statistician and analyst, "Poblano" (who asked that his real name be kept private for professional reasons) has developed a sophisticated regression model that uses state-by-state polling data to assess possible general election outcomes in individual states.

"We weight the average based on the reliability of the pollster," Poblano told me. "The polls that have a better track record are obviously going to be emphasized more heavily. We look at sample size. We look at how recent the poll was. We also skew various demographic factors as well."

In the Frequently Asked Questions section of his site, Poblano lists the demographic variables that his model takes into account in each state. Included are John Kerry's 2004 performance, the candidates' respective fundraising efforts, and other factors such as income, race, religion, age, and education level.

Using the resulting baseline averages, Poblano runs simulations -- 10,000 at a time -- to determine the probability of either Obama or Hillary Clinton beating John McCain in the fall.

"The simulation takes the polls we have now and recognizes that this far out from the election there are a lot of uncertainties," Poblano explained. "There was a point in time at which Walter Mondale led Ronald Reagan by 17 points or something. So we look at how much polls move over time, plus the margin of error in each poll, plus the fact that polls are never as good as they claim to be And we just simulate around that."

Poblano's simulation engine has produced some fascinating results. According to his current data, the model predicts that Clinton would win four states against McCain that Obama is favored to lose (FL, AR, WV, OH). Meanwhile, Obama wins eight states where Clinton would likely fail (MI, WI, IA, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR).

Using his simulation engine, Poblano went way against the grain last Monday, predicting that Obama would win the North Carolina primary by 17 points (most expected him to win by a single-digit margin). The following day, Obama took the state by 14.

Poblano's Indiana projection was even more spot on. He predicted a 51-49 Clinton victory. And sure enough, that's what happened.

Later in the week, pollster Mark Blumenthal devoted his National Journal column to the "Poblano Model," noting that it had outperformed five major national polling operations in predicting the results of Tuesday's primaries.

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The Full Monty

Of course, to really understand the ramifications of Obama's 50-state registration drive and the unprecedented excitement surrounding his campaign, you have to look at how increased turnout across all three of these groups could tilt the electoral map in his favor.

So Poblano devised several possible scenarios. The first, titled the "40/20 Plan," increases the youth vote by 40 percent and the African-American vote by 20 percent, while keeping the Latino vote at the 2004 level. The "40/30/20 Plan" projects a 40 percent increase among 18-24 year-olds, a 30 percent increase among Latinos, and a 20 percent in increase in the black vote. Finally comes the "Best Case Scenario," which assumes a 40 percent increase among African-Americans and a 50 percent increase in both the youth and Latino vote nationally.

The "40/20 Plan" alone increases Obama's chances of winning from 49.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The "40/30/20 Plan," meanwhile, lifts this probability over 70 percent:

These projections illustrate the extraordinary level of flexibility enjoyed by the Obama campaign as they head towards the general election. Rather than focusing on simply winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they have a big enough war chest and a broad enough base of support to create all sorts of contingencies in case one of those typical battleground states goes for McCain.

"If Obama wins the traditional big three, he's going to have a tough time losing anyway," Poblano said. "But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio -- if you're winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it's a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election."

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