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Truth is stranger than Fiction
Posted by JohnWxy in Environment/Energy
Thu Jan 20th 2011, 03:54 PM
Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts plug-in electric vehicles could account for up to 9% of US auto sales in 2020 and 22% in 2030

Plug-in electric vehicles such as Nissan's Leaf battery-electric model and the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid have the potential to comprise 9% of auto sales in 2020 and 22% in 2030 (1.6 million and 4 million vehicle sales respectively), the subscription research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported today.

Achieving such growth levels, however, will be dependent on two key factors - aggressive reductions in battery costs and rising gasoline prices, the company said.

The report issued this morning comes less than a week after analysts at J.D. Power and Associates - contradicting the fairly rosy future for electric-drive vehicles by some industry figures - said stable gasoline prices, high technology costs and uneven regulatory approaches are likely to hamper global acceptance of hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles over the next decade.
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J.D. Power and Associates
"Southern California-based J.D. Power sides with those projecting more modest growth, saying that combined hybrid and BEV sales will claim just over 7 percent of the passenger vehicle market by 2020 - or 5.2 million electric-drive cars and light trucks. "
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The J.D. Power report is one of a growing number, though, that take into account the continuing global economic slump and its impact both on consumers' spending habits and governments' willingness to aggressively promote and incentivize expensive electric-drive technologies.

We've reported on several, including a May report by Deloitte that said 6 percent market penetration by electric-drive vehicles in the next decade would be the best-case scenario and a Dec. 18 report from Pike Research that enumerated may of the same issues Sargent and his team raise.
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