Fri May 28, 2010 at 11:01:04 AM EDT

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/24-26. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/10-12 results)

Joe Sestak (D) 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R) 40 (45)

That's quite the primary victory bounce, +8 points. Where did the numbers shift?
Sestak Toomey

Democrats: 76 (73) 8 (11)
Republicans: 6 (4) 82 (84)
Independents: 35 (30) 35 (44)

Sestak enjoyed a net gain of +6 among Democrats, +4 among Republicans, and +14 among Independents. That'll do the trick.

For Toomey, the news isn't better when looking at the two candidate's favorabilities:

Favorable/Unfavorable

Sestak 48/30 (39/26)
Toomey 47/42 (45/40)