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hnmnf's Journal
Posted by hnmnf in General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009)
Thu Oct 09th 2008, 07:57 PM
Today's Fix for all you poll junkies! Maybe a name change will help the brand.

I'm no longer going to use the RCP average because they include Zogby but not Kos. So instead, I'm going to be using the Pollster Average and my own average of all the polls (except Zogby and ARG), because Pollster sometimes forgets to update.

National Polls

Kos/R2K: Obama 51(unchanged), McCain 41(unchanged)
Gallup: Obama 52(unchanged), McCain 41(unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 50(-1), McCain 45(unchanged)
Hotline: Obama 47(+2), McCain 41(-3)
GWU: Obama 48(-1), McCain 45(unchanged)
Zogby*: Obama 48(+1), McCain 44(-1)

*Zogby's polls are not included in personal averages.

Pollster Average: Obama 49.4(+.1), McCain 42.9(-.6)

HNMNF Average: Obama 49.4(unchanged), McCain 43.2(-.3)

State Polls

A little note on Rasmussen state polls. To me there seems to be too much volatility between their Fox polls and their personal polls. Anybody have any knowledge on this? So I'm going to base poll to poll changes based upon the last Fox poll or the last Ras poll.

Virginia
PPP: Obama 51(+3), McCain 43(-3)
RCP Average: Obama 50, McCain 44.9

North Carolina
Rasmussen: Obama 49(-1), McCain 48(+1)
Civitas(R): Obama 48(+3), McCain 43(-2)
RCP Average: 48.4-46.6

Florida
Rasmussen: Obama 50(+3), 47(-1)
RCP Average: Obama 48.1, McCain 45.6

Michigan
Rasmussen: Obama 56(+5), McCain 40(-6)
RCP Average: Obama 49.8, McCain 41.6

New Jersey
Rasmussen: Obama 50(-5), McCain 42(unchanged)
RCP Average: Obama 50, McCain 40

Indiana
Rasmussen: McCain 50(+1), Obama 43(-4)
RCP Average: McCain 48.8, Obama 45.0

Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision(R): Obama 54(+7), McCain 40(-6)
RCP Average: Obama 53.4, McCain 39.6

Georgia
Strategic Vision(R): McCain 50(-2), Obama 43(+4)
RCP Average: McCain 51.2, Obama 43.8

And then a Series of ARG Polls, some that are very funny
MO: McCain +3
MT: McCain +5
TX: McCain +19
NH: Obama +9
OH: Obama +3
MN: Obama +1
WV: Obama +8

Yup, they have Obama up only 1 in MN but up 8 in WV....suuuuurrre.

Electoral Map



http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pre...

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmem... /

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...
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