Air of uncertainty

Bhutto's assassination throws Pakistan's fragile political process into turmoil - and next month's parliamentary elections into doubt
Brian Katulis
December 27, 2007 6:00 PM | Printable version

Today's murder of opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is a seismic event, one that will have far-reaching ripple effects for the days and weeks ahead in Pakistan. Having just returned from Pakistan last week, this incident does not come as a complete surprise to me. On the eve of a crucial election, tensions on the street and among the political class were palpable, and violence was escalating in recent months.

Bhutto narrowly survived a suicide attack in October that killed 150 people in Karachi, and about 50 people were killed last week in a suicide bombing at a mosque in northwestern Pakistan aimed at a candidate for parliament and former interior minister. The attack on Bhutto wasn't the only one to occur today - four aides to Nawaz Sharif, another leading opposition figure and former prime minister, were killed at a separate election rally in Pakistan's capital of Islamabad. ( my comment: yes, the attempt nobody speaks about, as we do not like Sharif)


...

All too often in recent years the United States has looked to elections in other countries as the primary indication for success or failure in a country's progress toward political reform. The US has also become singularly focused on individual leaders like Bhutto. Her murder is a tragedy, and Musharraf has called for a three-day mourning period. As the world remembers her contributions, it should also keep her record in perspective. Under Bhutto, Pakistan provided support to the Taliban in the 1990s. Some observers note that Bhutto was not the saviour of democracy she claimed to be, including Bhutto's niece in a recent, biting op-ed in the Los Angeles Times. And it was also in part on Bhutto's watch that Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father Pakistan's nuclear programme, built an international network that led to dangerous transfers of nuclear technology.

As Pakistan enters an even more complicated period, US policymakers should resist the temptation to see the situation in simplistic, black-and-white, freedom-versus-terror terms. Past experience in Pakistan and elsewhere demonstrates that putting our hopes on a single leader or a single election rarely makes Americans safer or advances stability and prosperity in other countries.