I do not disagree with anyone who says his excuses as regards the photographs are bullshit, that it represents Obama choosing to side with the concerns of the military over the concerns of transparency, or that his decision to refuse to release is very disappointing.

I do not think it represents Bush-like malevolence either, nor is it an attack on liberalism, nor is it anything of the sort. It is, I believe, a simple decision taken from a purely political perspective. Consider the following, if you would. There are two sides at play here: internally, there is his intelligence and military structure, which strongly opposes releasing the photos partially to protect American soldiers abroad, partially to protect its image abroad, partially to protect morale in those agencies, and partially to protect themselves from public anger. Externally, there is the political left, which strongly supports releasing the photos, partially in the name of transparency, and partially to increase public anger over Bush-era abuses to increase pressure for prosecution. Obama, placed in that situation, has everything to gain by siding with the military and absolutely nothing to gain by siding with the left.

To explain this, let's discuss that last goal of the left: increasing pressure for prosecution. This is an interesting phenomenon. Prosecution of Bush officials is at its core a legal and not a political fight. While it is true that political pressure can sometimes spur Congress to action, all the political pressure in the world cannot be brought to bear on a courtroom. Courts are by design immune to such pressure. What matters for the success of a prosecution, once begun, is the weight of the evidence and nothing but. When it comes to torture, conviction of anyone in particular is by no means a sure thing. Think back to the Plame affair: it was obvious that the White House had leaked Valerie Plame's name to the media, but yet the Bushies were careful to ensure that all damning communications, paper trails, and orders were routed through Scooter Libby. Scooter lied and stonewalled, and the entire investigation fell apart, able to do nothing but convict him on obstruction of justice. There's no particular reason to believe that a conviction is a sure bet, and no amount of political pressure can change that fact.

That much is obvious, of course. You may be thinking that the purpose of pressure is to encourage the prosecution to be launched, with conviction beside the point entirely. Well, no, conviction is not beside the point at all. If Obama launches a high-profile public investigation of his political opponents, and if that investigation does not result in criminal charges, it will be difficult to defend the investigation as anything but an embarrassing waste of time and money. If Obama launches an attempt to throw his political opponents in jail, and if a judge then rejects Obama's arguments as to why a former President of the United States must be jailed, it will be impossible to defend against charges of an unprecedented political witch hunt. Going after Bush would be the highest-stakes game Obama could buy in to. Prosecution of a former President is unprecedented; the only thing that could justify it would be conviction.

Therefore, the only criterion Obama will use to decide whether to launch a public investigation/prosecution will be the weight of the evidence available, for that is the only criterion that will determine whether prosecution would be the nation's final repudiation of Bushism under a triumphant Democrat, or would be the beginning of the nation's rejection of an overreaching, witch-hunting Democrat. Political pressure for prosecution is nothing but noise; it cannot affect the result and therefore it will not affect the decision. The only possible results of that pressure are frustration in the White House and anger among those pressuring who despair to see their calls have not been acknowledged.

So let us return to the choice between the military and the left. If he chooses the military, he loses nothing internally, he gains a small amount of respect in some circles, but he will temporarily increase anger among the left (for a few days, perhaps) with perhaps a negligible lasting impact. If he chooses the left, he will temporarily satisfy some, but will enrage many in his administration (people whose cooperation would be necessary in any investigation, I might add). However, in choosing the left, he will also increase the volume of calls for prosecution; the grisly new public evidence of Bush's abuses will of course horrify many. That would represent a long-term headache, as would the anger among the military and the intelligence services.

There's no net benefit to releasing the photographs. There's a strong benefit to holding them back. While I'm disappointed he won't be releasing them, I'm hardly surprised.