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OnTheOtherHand's Journal
Posted by OnTheOtherHand in Election Reform
Mon Sep 10th 2007, 09:52 AM
You can read the post "upside down," but it will be easier like this:

Here is the table at 7:33 PM on election night:



---------------------------------------------------------------------------
And here is the table at 1:24 PM the next day:



In either order the big-city and rural shares of votes are the same within rounding error -- but seeing them in the right sequence makes it clearer how the pollsters increased the Bush vote shares in each category.

By the way, just using the 2000 size shares -- for instance, assuming that 9% of votes were cast in big cities and 23% in rural areas -- without altering anything else would have shaved Kerry's lead by about 2 points. That underscores the weirdness of arguing that the pollsters inflated the big-city vote in order to make Bush do better.
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