The only thing that slightly worries me (that might make things closer) is the spate of voter ID laws passed by states and other means that the Republicans have been busily implementing to disenfranchise Democratic-leaning voters in advance of 2012. All things being equal, I would heartily agree with you that none of the GOP Presidential roster are going to fare particularly well against President Obama- though the right-wing machine, Fox News, GPS Crossroads (i.e. Rove) will throw the kitchen sink at President Obama during the campaign to bring down his numbers and make the race more competitive. Of course, unlike 2008 when Obama was largely an "unknown quantity", it was easier to smear him and raise questions about his leadership experience and ability to step up to the plate. Now that he is well-known and has a proven record of accomplishments and leadership, it will be harder for them to find something to really attack him over. The fact that they already spend so much time flailin' and failin' to find something to really attack him over shows how little criticism of substance they actually have on him.

The only real *argument* they can make is that the economy sucks and that President Obama hasn't been able to successfully fix the problem during his first 4 years and that the public should vote in a Republican POTUS to fix things (oh, they'll "fix" things, of course ). Of course, the counter-argument that President Obama and the Democratic Party makes is that the problem was so big that it was never going to be totally fixed within 4 years (not by him or anybody else), the stimulus and other actions by the administration helped make things better (or at least staunched the bleeding) and, to the extent that things could have been made even better, the Republicans share some blame for obstructing additional stimulative measures/progress.