(Sorry to link to Politico, but I clicked through to this while wondering why the HELL Politico is now featured on Yahoo News next to AP, Reuters and AFP...)
Why poll numbers skewed: Race effect?
Daniel Libit Fri May 16, 5:55 AM ET
As the nation's pollsters convene this weekend in New Orleans at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, one topic will be the subject of lively debate -- the so-called "Bradley effect."
The Bradley effect, which refers to the propensity of white poll respondents to overstate their support for a black candidate, isn't the only issue that pollsters, statisticians and academics will discuss and dispute. But it may be one of the most consequential since it stands to significantly skew pre-election poll results in an election where it seems increasingly likely that Barack Obama will emerge as the Democratic party's presidential nominee.
"We know that biracial elections have been difficult for pollsters," says Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. "Race continues to be an issue for Obama, and to the extent race is an issue, race will be an issue in polling."
The phenomenon, known in the trade as "social desirability bias," draws its name from Tom Bradley, the former black mayor of Los Angeles who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election despite leading in final day pre-election polls. It resurfaced in the 1989 Virginia governor's election when L. Douglas Wilder, an African-American, barely squeaked by his Republican opponent despite polling that reflected a commanding double-digit lead for Wilder heading into Election Day.
More:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080516/... ;
I'm just sayin'... I'm afraid THIS is what they'll use to explain away inexplicable conflicts between polls -- including exit polls -- and the counted "results" in this general election.
There's no time to change the flawed voting processes by November. The only solution is to get behind Obama in numbers that the "Bradley effect" can't come close to explaining. If they go this route, the anomaly will have to be HUGE. We need numbers too big to ignore -- and yes, I think we can get them!
(Time will tell whether they'll do it this time -- I think Republicans run the country into the ground until it's so far gone only PAIN will bring it back; then they hand it over to Democrats to repair and to take the hits for raising taxes to pay off their messes, etc. And they've run it into the ground in a major way now. But time will tell.)
(Edit: All the more reason to take nothing for granted, including "safe states." But I don't think anybody wants to think of this right now, so I'll just stick it in my journal for future reference!)
