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brokensymmetry's Journal
I want to hear the truth about where we are and hear about solutions.
Really?
We are $9,000,000,000,000 in debt. That's right now, today. We are continuing to spend
on a host of projects, including Iraq. No matter who gets elected, we will remain in
Iraq. We need the oil like an addict needs crack. We will spend blood and treasure to
remain. We would pawn Queen Elizabeth's crown if we could get our paws on it.
We have a demographic tidal wave approaching. Medicare and Social Security will start
withdrawing more than is deposited. That will add to the annual deficit, hence to the
aggregate deficit.
Interest rates are lower than inflation. Low interest rates help consumers and stimulate
the economy; they also weaken the dollar. Foreign creditors see no reason to lend to the
U.S. when they merely lock in a guaranteed loss.
But if we increase interest rates, the annual interest costs on our debt will explode. Thus
we dare not let interest rates increase. But this forces the dollar lower. Which in turn makes
foreign goods (i.e., oil, food, raw materials) more expensive.
Oh, and by the way...we are past peak oil. Oil will get more expensive. And since
diesel and fertilizer is getting more costly, food will continue up. And do you recall that
massive debt? We'll continue to export to a hungry (and more affluent) world. Enjoy your memories
of steak. Expect chicken to become a luxury.
Online work and telecommuting? Fine. But keep in mind that the worker is now engaged in
global labor arbitrage, and is in direct competition with the global labor market. Thus, the
wage levels in the U.S. and other countries must reach equilibrium. Ultimately, the cost structure
will also reach rough parity; in the meantime, the adjustment will drive Americans into the same
financial situation as other workers around the world. I trust that creates an appropriate level
of horror; if not, it should.
Solutions? I suppose that we could simply default on the national debt, along with various
commitments like Social Security and Medicare. We could then spend the next two generations
rebuilding our economic and social infrastructure such that our grandchildren would have a chance.
We, on the other hand, would sweat and strain for meager rewards as we fixed the mess. That
won't happen. It is not viable.
So we'll inflate and inflate, and we'll get poorer both as a society and as individuals. From
time to time, we'll discuss why things went wrong and how to fix them. They went wrong when
we started living large, circa the early 1950's. There is no practical way to fix any of this.
Yeah, I'm a ray of sunshine.
And this is one of my relatively optimistic scenarios.
number 1. More for grins than anything else.
You see, it doesn't matter in the least whether I'm
for it, against it, ignore it, or just never see it.
Reality asserts itself, and could not care less about
what I want, believe, or expect.
People are capable of solving many problems - but notice
that the collective behavior of human-kind is essentially
the same as a yeast colony. We increase in number so long
as resources support the increase. We go into overshoot.
Next stop - dieoff.
Could people all decide to live small, have only one
child, cease eating meat, and a score of other things?
Sure. It could happen this very evening. But, it won't.
Could someone, somewhere create a table-top device that
was safe, cheap, and produced limitless amounts of clean
energy? Maybe. We'd just continue acting like a yeast
colony and increase our numbers some more.
Take a look at the global fisheries...
Consider the outlook for water...
Factor in oil...and climate change...
Now look at the various nations of the third world,
including much of the population of China and India.
Consider their aspirations to become SUV driving
quasi-Americans.
If you can look at all that and tell me there won't
be a dieoff, then I suppose we'll just have to wait
and see what comes. I expect that whoever the next
President might be, they will deserve our deepest
sympathy.
Not one we'll like, either.
Humanity has the collective wisdom of a yeast colony.
We have grown and multiplied and consumed, our population
has increased past the carrying point, and so we will
continue for a time.
As the consequences of overshoot develop, we'll destroy
the fisheries, the forests, the living creatures of
every sort. We will consume every drop of oil, every
chunk of coal, every scrap of timber. And in the end,
we'll scavenge each other - at least figuratively, and
perhaps literally.
Ultimately, population will decline and come into line
with carrying capacity. Billions will be dead, our
civilization will be ash. The environment will be
a burned out husk.
And no, there's nothing that can be done. Recycle if
you want, bicycle if you will, hand out leaflets and
speak up for the environment if you'd like. But in the
end, nothing will change. We would do as well to seek
repeal of the law of gravity.
Those who have been reading news about Mexico's election are surely aware of the ongoing political crises. There are, however, a couple additional factors worthy of consideration. 1) Cantarell, Mexico's big offshore field, is in rapid decline. You can read more here: http://www.energybulletin.net/1651.html 2) As Cantarell declines, and Mexico's domestic oil usage continues at the present pace or increases, Mexico will face a loss of foreign trade earnings. 3) No matter how the present political confrontation develops, half the population is sure to be disgruntled; and probably angry. 4) It seems unlikely that the U.S. will welcome increased flows of Mexican nationals. Whatever your views on the issue, I speak to my perception of the political reality. If this is true, remittances to Mexico are likely to decline. 5) Mexico is no longer the cheapest source of manufacturing. China, perhaps India, along with other nations in the global economy, all seek to attract manufacturing with cheap labor costs. This seems to put further pressure on Mexico. My conclusion: Mexico faces a variety of difficult financial problems that will grow steadily worse. The new President will not be accepted by half the population, and will likely be blamed for a worsening economy. This will lead to trouble. At the risk of engaging in hyperbole, I wonder if civil war in Mexico is possible. Such things have happened. The DU community includes a host of smart people with good insights. I'd like to see what you think of the situation.
Let's suppose that the upcoming hurricane season - which will soon
be upon us - once again produces some large storms.
Let's say that we get two major hurricanes along with some minor
ones. The first one hits the Eastern Seaboard, around the Carolinas.
The second one hits Texas, close to Houston - or, perhaps, western
Louisiana, a couple months later.
As nearly as I can tell, FEMA would be completely unprepared for
all this; likewise the rest of the infrastructure. Gasoline would
skyrocket to $5 per gallon, and numerous locales would not have
it available at any price.
In short, the New Orleans debacle would be replicated on a larger
scale - though perhaps with less loss of life, since there would
likely be less flooding.
So - is such a scenario possible, in your opinion?
What effect might it have politically?
Other thoughts?
I guess I think that the oil companies - greedily little devils that they
are - are so inconsequential that I really don't much care if they try
to dodge some blame. It strikes me as being akin to escaping blame
for soiling the carpet...on the Titanic...just before it goes beneath
the waves.
If oil peaks before we start coming up with alternatives, and if
the decline is steep - then get ready for the die-off. That may
well mean a global population decline to about 1 billion people from
the present 6.5 billion over the course of several decades. Add in
some resource wars (Iraq, anyone?) and you might get an even more severe
die-off.
We have to reduce our dependence on non-renewable energy - not just
fossil fuels - and we'd best get started now. We might have done it
more comfortably if we'd listened to Jimmy Carter - but we as a nation
didn't. We listened to Reagen instead.
So the oil companies - and oil producing countries - will rip us off.
They'll smirk and party and think themselves to be clever. But irritating
as that is, unjust and unfair and wrong as it may be - better that than
the grim alternatives in store if we don't start cutting back a lot.
And that doesn't even touch the climate change issue...
Do I like high gas prices? No...no one does. We all want cheap and easy
motoring. But if someone or something doesn't change our behavior, the
consequences are so terrible you don't want to think about it.
I expect global famine to hit in 20 years - or perhaps less. It will be the beginning of the die-off; population will decline over several decades from the present 6.5 billion to about 1 billion.
This will trigger mass migrations, which will render the present immigration debate laughable.
Given the various pressures you mention, the U.S. and global economies will be under severe stress, and governments will probably resort to massive inflation, thus wiping out the savings of the formerly middle class. The $1,000,000 they had in their 401k will be consumed in a year - or less.
Peak Oil is likely to hit sometime between now and 2010. Given our dependence on oil for agriculture, along with climate change and the death of the oceans, all else will follow.
No, we will not do anything.
To do something, we must cut greenhouse emissions a lot, and we must do it quickly. That's sure to mean economic disruption.
No elected administration - not in the U.S., not in the U.K., not in most places - will find it politically viable to take the actions which are required to mitigate climate change. I doubt that non-elected regimes could pull it off either. The third world has seen the American lifestyle, and they're grabbing for it with both hands - so even if Americans change their lifestyle completely, it won't matter. Our global destiny is set.
Our children will hate us, and our grandchildren - those few who survive - will hold us in contempt. And there is nothing you or I can do to change it.
As you point out so well, they are indeed leeches - they take from their workers, and also the shareholders who actually own the company. Notice that there is no true shareholder democracy - the cost to run an alternative slate for the board of directors would cost millions. Other than that, one can merely withhold ones vote from the existing slate. Stalin could not have exercised tighter control.
CEO pay is a travesty. Companies grind workers into the dirt, bring in illegal alien labor, falsely certify labor shortages to justify H1-B visas, all in the name of profits - and then they spend tens of millions for CEOs. This is plutocracy at its most despicable.
Leeches they are indeed - and that's an insult to leeches everywhere.
Keep in mind that U.S. students aren't pursuing technical degrees as much as they were - for example, per the ACM, we've seen undergraduate enrollment in computer science decline from 4% of all undergraduates nationwide to under 1.5%. Matters aren't improving.
If you go to the NSF website and poke around a bit, you'll also notice that fewer American students are going to grad school. Oh, the classes still have students - students from foreign countries. Not Americans. Interestingly, tuition for those foreign students is about triple what it is for U.S. students.
So, we're not making things, we're not thinking, we're even letting others do the innovating. We are on track for third world status - but with accumulated debts from our golden era.
Add in some other factors - Peak Oil, for example - and we are toast. Our plutocratic leaders could not possibly care less.
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