Really?

We are $9,000,000,000,000 in debt. That's right now, today. We are continuing to spend
on a host of projects, including Iraq. No matter who gets elected, we will remain in
Iraq. We need the oil like an addict needs crack. We will spend blood and treasure to
remain. We would pawn Queen Elizabeth's crown if we could get our paws on it.

We have a demographic tidal wave approaching. Medicare and Social Security will start
withdrawing more than is deposited. That will add to the annual deficit, hence to the
aggregate deficit.

Interest rates are lower than inflation. Low interest rates help consumers and stimulate
the economy; they also weaken the dollar. Foreign creditors see no reason to lend to the
U.S. when they merely lock in a guaranteed loss.

But if we increase interest rates, the annual interest costs on our debt will explode. Thus
we dare not let interest rates increase. But this forces the dollar lower. Which in turn makes
foreign goods (i.e., oil, food, raw materials) more expensive.

Oh, and by the way...we are past peak oil. Oil will get more expensive. And since
diesel and fertilizer is getting more costly, food will continue up. And do you recall that
massive debt? We'll continue to export to a hungry (and more affluent) world. Enjoy your memories
of steak. Expect chicken to become a luxury.

Online work and telecommuting? Fine. But keep in mind that the worker is now engaged in
global labor arbitrage, and is in direct competition with the global labor market. Thus, the
wage levels in the U.S. and other countries must reach equilibrium. Ultimately, the cost structure
will also reach rough parity; in the meantime, the adjustment will drive Americans into the same
financial situation as other workers around the world. I trust that creates an appropriate level
of horror; if not, it should.

Solutions? I suppose that we could simply default on the national debt, along with various
commitments like Social Security and Medicare. We could then spend the next two generations
rebuilding our economic and social infrastructure such that our grandchildren would have a chance.
We, on the other hand, would sweat and strain for meager rewards as we fixed the mess. That
won't happen. It is not viable.

So we'll inflate and inflate, and we'll get poorer both as a society and as individuals. From
time to time, we'll discuss why things went wrong and how to fix them. They went wrong when
we started living large, circa the early 1950's. There is no practical way to fix any of this.

Yeah, I'm a ray of sunshine.

And this is one of my relatively optimistic scenarios.