So, DU, we're 3/4 the way through October. And, we haven't seen the "October Surprise" yet. What do you think it will be?

To those of you that are worried about McCain's push into Pennsylvania, I have two words for you.

Rudolph Giuliani.

Yes, Mr. Nine/Eleven. He ignored Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. He put all his electoral eggs in one basket, (Florida) and got trounced.

So, with McCain going "all-in" into Pennsylvania, like the gambler he is, he just emulating the "great" Giuliani. His thinking is, "Why bother with Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa when Pennsylvania is enough?"

However, with Pennsylvania staying solid blue, Virginia going solidly blue, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri leaning blue, and Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, North Dakota, and Montana moving towards blue, I think McCain is going to look rather foolish come 11-4.

65 of the seats aren't changing. 37 are Democrats, 26 are Republicans, one is Bernie Sanders, and one is Joe Lieberman. Out of the 12 seats that are held by Democrats, none of them are remotely competitive. The closest is Lautenberg in New Jersey, and he's still +12.6.

(All data is from 538.com, unless otherwise specified.)

Out of the incumbent Republican seats:
Mark Warner is a shoe-in for John Warner's old seat. (+ 26.4)
Tom Udall is just as sure to replace Pete Dominici's seat. (+ 17)
Mark Udall should easily get Wayne Allard's seat. (+ 6)
Jeanne Shaheen should swipe John Sununu's position from underneath him. (+ 5.7)
Kay Hagan has a very good chance of getting Elizabeth Dole's seat, to cheers from North Carolina. (+ 2 and trending positive)

This gives us 54 Dems, plus 1 for Sanders, leaving 55.

Three more races are within our grasp.
Mark Begich is facing Ted "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens. This should be a gimme, but it IS Alaska. (+ 0.8 prior to Stevens' trial)
Jeff Merkley will probably ride Sen. Obama's coattails to a win in Oregon over incumbent Gordon Smith. (+ 0.8 as well)
Al Franken is holding up well against Norm Coleman, and should also coast to victory with a little help from Sen. Obama. (- 0.9, but rapidly fluctuating)

This would give us 58, including Sanders.

Out of the 15 Republican positions left, 11 are almost sure GOP wins. Out of the four left:
Ronnie Musgrove, former MS governor, is facing appointee Roger Wicker. Obama may not be able to help much here, but Dems should prioritize this race, especially for funding. (- 2.5)
Jim Martin is facing Saxby Chambliss. Chambliss was an absolute jerk to Max Cleland in 2002, and it might come back to bite him. Incidentally, Chambliss is losing ground in the polls. (- 5.8 but improving for the Dems)
Bruce Lunsford is actually doing well against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell's vote for the bailout might hurt him, because Kentuckians aren't happy about it. This is another race that more funding may help. (- 6.3)
Rick Noriega is facing John Cornyn. Cornyn is a big Bush fanatic, so when Bush's name is only slightly better than mud, so is Cornyn's. On the other hand, it IS Texas. (- 9.9)

It is reasonable to expect 1 of these four to win, and 2 is possible, but 3 is really pushing it. This would give us 59 with only one win, including Sanders. If Lieberman stays with us, we get 60.

So, again, we could give Lieberman more power than he deserves. Fortunately, it won't hinge on who gets to be Senate Majority Leader.

Edit: I forgot that we had 49 + Sanders and Lieberman, not 48 + Sanders and Lieberman. The numbers have been fixed.

3,244 - That is the number of cities that are bigger than Wasilla, Alaska in the United States.

Would the mayor of Le Mars Iowa, Wyoming Ohio, Vermillion South Dakota, Shasta Lake California, Santa Fe Texas, or Jerome Idaho be qualified to be the Vice President of the United States? No.

However, every single one of these cities (and 3236 others) is bigger than Wasilla. Given the (lack of) thinking of the GOP, they are as qualified than Sarah Palin is for the Vice Presidency.

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16 - That is the number of cities that have more people in them than the ENTIRE state of Alaska.

New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, Detroit, San Jose, Indianapolis, Jacksonville (FL), San Francisco, Columbus, and Austin (TX) are all bigger than Alaska in population. I am not counting suburbs; this is just the cities themselves.

Will Wynn, Michael B. Coleman, Gregory Ballard, and John Peyton. Do these names sound anything resemble familiar? No? They are the mayors of Austin, Columbus, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville respectively. Each man has a jurisdiction greater than Alaska. Why haven't these been vetted? Heck, Ballard and Peyton are Republicans. Plus, Peyton is younger (3 months younger) AND been in office for longer. (5 years as mayor) Why have they gotten a call from the GOP?

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John McCain has shown poor judgment with for his running mate, and even worse judgment in trying to make Palin look "experienced." Even though Alaska is an entire state, there are 46 governors and 16 mayors that have a greater population than it. Plus, her "preparation" prior to being governor is 4 years as a council member and 6 years as mayor of the 3,245th largest city in the United States. There is no national experience, much less global experience, in this woman.

I'm sorry, but this is pathetic. Even though Barack Obama lacks the years of experience that either John McCain or Joe Biden has, even his Illinois State Senate district (1/19th of Chicago proper) has a quarter of the people as Alaska does. This gives him 11 years of experience at the level Palin has 1.5 years, plus 3.5 years of national experience.

There is NO way anyone could call this woman qualified to become Vice President.

Some fellows wanted to see a VP of change,
Some fellows wanted to win Indiane,
Some fellows wanted to shatter that ceiling,
I just want to beat John McCain,

So...

I'm Biden my time,
To clean GOP grime.
Ya' know it'll be great,
With Obama/Biden '08,
Biden my time.

Next year, next year,
They'll be inaugurated.
We'll be, we'll be,
Completely elated.

I'm Biden my time,
To clean Bush's grime.
They'll win all the debates,
And all the swing states,
Biden my time.

(long instrumental interlude)

I'm Biden my time,
To rid of GOP grime.
We'll go vote on a Tuesday,
Oh what a good news day,
Biden my time.

Give me, give me,
A foreign policy expert,
Leave out, leave out,
That scary Mormon stuffed shirt.

We're Biden our time,
To catch Bush's crime,
I'm ready for the convention,
And then the election,
Biden my time!

(Originally "Bidin' My Time" from Girl Crazy; composed by George Gershwin; original lyrics by Ira Gershwin)