Heads up, ya'll, for the second round of Texas caucuses.... the County / Senatorial District conventions, coming to your teevee on Saturday. In these conventions, the delegates chosen at the precinct conventions, on election day, now have another exciting meeting to attend. Once more, the percentage of delegates is determined by Those Who Show Up. People will sign-in and indicate their presidential preference at each convention. The people who show up get the delegate spots for the next level.
Now, although it is true that the delegate count from the caucuses is not final until state, this next step will enable us to get to a 95% certainty to project delegates chosen at the state level. The reason for this is simple -- most of the people who are chosen to go on to state will really, really want to be there. So the percentages are unlikely to change from senate convention to state convention.
Also, here's a little-known tidbit. The Texas Democratic Party chair, Boyd Ritchie, and his wife, Betty Ritchie, are both undeclared superdelegates. He is up for re-election this year. He will be elected by those same delegates who will attend the state convention in June. Now, if Mr. Ritchie does not stand for re-election, he will no longer be a superdelegate. If he DOES stand for re-election, I suspect he will face a good deal of pressure to declare who he will be supporting. If the delegates attending state are... say.... 60% Obama delegates... and if he wants to get re-elected... well, you see where I am going with this. So we could also eventually get 1 or 2 superdelegates out of the results Saturday.
Texas is about to be back in the news, and Saturday will be a good news day for the Obama campaign.
What will you find in this blog? Well, my "serious" interests are Texas politics and local activism; my not-so-serious interests are yoga, Keith Olbermann, and various other random stuff. Enjoy!