This is how the map looks to the people putting their money where their mouth is at Intrade.com.

States trading in the 40-60 range put as undecided.

Hello guys and girls!

Time for the post on the second of tomorrows contests.

I give you

North Carolina

According to the Selection Plan for North Carolina the pledged delegates are distributed as follows:

1. District-Level Delegates: 77 - distributed over 13 districts of varying size allocations.
   
2. Pledged PLEO Delegates: 12
   
3. At-Large Delegates: 26
   

For a total of 115 pledged delegates at stake in tomorrows primary.

Lets have a look at the districts. I am going to work from the different predictions I have been able to find on the different blogs out there.
PsiFighter37 at dKos
fivethirtyeight.coms computermodel
Elliot at electioninspection - he won the prediction contest on PA at TheField.

Contrary to the Indiana districts there is quite a few districts with an odd number of delegates. That makes it quite a bit more important who gets the popular vote, even if by a little, in a given district.
As you go down over the districts remember to marvel at display after display of gerrymandering at its absolute finest.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

50% AA population combined with low income, old whites. The 58,333% should be guaranteed for a 4-2 split for Obama. As PsiFighter37 points out he did come close to the 75% in neighbouring Virginia districts, so the 5-1 might be in reach - if a bit of a stretch.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

The guys at 538 says this could go 4-2 Obama, even though we are dealing with some poorer areas, since its split evenly among the demographics - and is the one of the youngest and most male district. The two others think he will have problems breaking the 58,333% barrier. I'm keeping at 3-3.



4 Delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Young, middleclass whites and a lot of rural area. Not enough to carry either over 62,5% for a 3-1 split.



9 Delegates -- Split percentages | 5,556% | 16,667% | 27,778% | 38,889% | 50,000% | 61,111% | 72,222% | 83,333% | 94,444%
Prediction: Obama 6 Clinton 3

High income, highly educated, two universities. representative David Price is an Obama endorser. Obama will break the 61,111% to get a 6-3 split. 7-2 is viewed as unlikely, but not altogether impossible.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

White lower middle class Appalachian district. Clinton land. But not enough to get Obama under 30%, which will get him the 2 delegates.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Described as CD#5 with a better education. Clinton win, but not a 70%+.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

58,333% to get a 4-2 split seems to be to much for either. Slight favour to Obama though, due to a good base of high education and 21% AA population - could bring him near the 4-2 split.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 2

30% AA population and large part urban areas. Obama did fine in neighbouring SC districts. Should be a solid 3-2 for him.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

Upper white middle class. Our predictors seems a little split on which way it could go. PF37 says Hillary has the better chance of the 4-2 split. 538 says Obama will make with a few % to spare, and Elliot says he will make the 4-2 no problem. Slight favour for 4-2 makes it our guess.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Another Appalachia district like CD#5 that will favour Clinton, but probably not bring her past the 70% for a 4-1 split.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 4

Good area for Clinton. But Asheville is apparently a place for the more liberal, Dennish Kucinich voting, democrats which might affect the vote in favour of Obama enough to avoid the 75% for Clinton that would net her a 5-1 split.



7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Look at that picture again. Is a beauty of a district, won't you agree?
Urban district with 45% AA population. That along with a high level of education should easily bring Obama over the 64,286% mark for a 5-2 split.



7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Well educated middle class and 27% AA population will win this for Obama. 64,286% for the 5-2 split is within reach and could happen.


That gives us a total on the district level delegates of:

Obama 42 - Clinton 35

Seems like Obama is closer to expanding that than Hillary is to contracting it. But the totals look relatively solid +/- 2 either way.


Statewide delegates

Realclearpolitics have a average on the polls atm at just under 7% for Obama. Personally I think it will be higher than that, so lets play with 8%.
That gives us:

Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
12 Delegates
Split percentages from 3 to 11 | 20,833% | 29,167% | 37,500% | 45,833% | 54,167% | 62,500% | 70,833% | 79,167% | 87,500% |

Obama 6 - Clinton 6

A tad more and Obama breaks this 7-5. 8-4 would be a 25 point win. Not likely

At-Large Delegates
26 Delegates
Split percentages from 9 to 17 | 32,692% | 36,538% | 40,385% | 44,231% | 48,077% | 51,923% | 55,769% | 59,615% | 63,462% |

Obama 14 - Clinton 12

If Obama goes double digits, a 15-11 split is close.


But all in all out numbers give us a grand total of:

Obama 62 - Clinton 53

A 9 delegate win for Senator Obama. I still have a feeling Obama is underestimated in the above, but there you have it. 5 more than
I have in Indiana for Senator Clinton.


Anyways - there you have it. What do YOU think?

Hello guys and girls!

Time for another little post on the numbers of a coming primary contest.

I'll start with Indiana (North Carolina will follow asap)

Lets get right into it:

Indiana

According to the Selection Plan for Indiana the pledged delegates are distributed as follows:

1. District-Level Delegates: 47 - distributed over 9 districts of varying size allocations.
   
2. Pledged PLEO Delegates: 9
   
3. At-Large Delegates: 16
   

For a total of 72 pledged delegates at stake in tomorrows primary.

Lets have a look at the districts. I am going to work from the different predictions I have been able to find on the different blogs out there.
PsiFighter37 at dKos
fivethirtyeight.coms computermodel
Elliot at electioninspection - he won the prediction contest on PA at TheField.

Note: There is quite a few districts with even numbered delegates. In general that seems to work in Obamas favour here as there might be a few where Hillary will break 50% but not overwhelmingly. (In other states it hasn't been in his favour - before someone starts crying foul and what have you.)


6 delegates - Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

Second largest AA population of the districts. Close to Chicago. Thats points for Obama in what otherwise might look more like a Clinton area. Most seem to agree that neither will break the 58,333% threshold though. So thats going even split. It might be an outside shot a +2 for Obama if the AA+Chicago influence is stronger than expected.



6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction:Obama 3 Clinton 3

Again 58,333% is the threshold for a 4-2 split. Should be Clinton area but apparently the polls show Obama even with Clinton in north Indiana - so this is again called for an even split. this one tilts to Clinton though, so could be 4-2 in her favour.



4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Borders a 60-40 Ohio district for Clinton. This areas a bit more mixed - but should be a sure win for Clinton. Everyone agrees that 62,5% is a bit far fetched though. Even split again.



4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Another 4 delegate district with a tough 62,5% threshold that will make it hard for Clinton to make a delegate gain here. This district stretches half of Indiana from north to south. Mostly rural with some Indianapolis suburbs. Purdue University gives Obama a little plus. Clinton wins here, but not enough. Split again.



4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Looks like CD#4. Above average income. 538 calls it: "Home to Indiana's bourgeoisie" - but also very republican overall. Giving the gasbag a chance of meddling some. Depending on the Limbaugh vote, this could be an Obama win - but still only for a split.
(By now it should be clear to new readers what restrictions the district delegates puts on the overall development in the remaining primaries.)



5 delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

The only district with an odd number of delegates. That will hand Clinton +1 delegate in a mostly, geographically at least, rural district that borders Ohio heavily and is the least educared area. Obama got just under 40 in the neighbouring Ohio district and there are some Indianapolis suburban like areas in play with a large part of the population in this district, so it is deemed more or less impossible for Clinton to break the 70% needed for a 4-1 split.



6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

Indianapolis. 29.4% AA population. Even though the demographics are seemingly not as favourable as in you would normally see in an urban district like this, Obama should be able to break the 58,333% for a 4-2 split, but 75% for a 5-1 seems out of the question.



6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 4

Should be Clinton leaning land, even if it neighbours Obamas Illionois. Some think Hillary can break the 58,333% for 4-2 split. And given that its Bayhs hometurf as well, it is very likely. If Obama does good overall theres a good shot at him holding this for an even split. But expect 4-2 Clinton.



6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

Again heavy Clinton land (borders Kentucky to boot) - but former, and apparently still quite popular, congressman (30+) years Lee Hamilton has endorsed Obama and we have Indiana University in Bloomington that should give Obama a buffer to keep Clinton under 58,333%. Yet another split.

That gives us a total on the district level delegates of:

Obama 23 - Clinton 24

This could move +/- 4 for both as some of the above predictions could be quite close. More likely for Clinton than Obama perhaps.

Statewide delegates

Realclearpolitics have a average on the polls atm at just under 6%. I am going to err on the side of Clinton here and go with a mini-PA result of 8% for a 54-46 win (which will probably be rounded up to a tripledigit win).
That gives us:

Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
9 delegates -- Split percentages | 5,556% | 16,667% | 27,778% | 38,889% | 50,000% | 61,111% | 72,222% |

83,333% | 94,444% |
Obama 4 - Clinton 5

The 3-6 split is out of the question. That would mean a 22 point win for Hillary.

At-Large Delegates
16 Delegates
Split percentages from 4 to 12 | 21,875% | 28,125% | 34,375% | 40,625% | 46,875% | 53,125% | 59,375% | 65,625% | 71,875% |
Obama 7 - Clinton 9

This could go 8-8 if Obama keeps it under a 6,25 point loss. 6-10 would mean a 30 point loss. Not happening.

That gives us a grand total of:

Obama 34 - Clinton 38

A 4 delegate win for Senator Clinton. Two of my mentioned predictors even have it 36-36. Could be 32-40 if Hillary has a good day.

There is not really a big win scenario for Hillary here, unless she really breaks out in the districts beyond all expectations.

Anyways - there you have it. What do YOU think?

I will follow up with North Carolina later today.
(13 districts.. Why can't they all be more like Guam?).

Given the current numbers from DemConWatch, the need for superdelegates look like this, given an estimate for GU/IN/NC that I think is reasonably favoured for Senator Clinton:



Notes:

Hillary needs 40% of the SDs even if she takes 100% of the pledged delegates after IN/NC.

Obama can still do it in that situation with 65-70% of the SDs.

Its probably more likely to be a 50-50 from there, making the numbers around 75% for Hillary and 27% for Obama.
Which in absolute numbers are about 218 for Hillary and 78 for Obama.

Hello everyone. Time for some facts again (and perhaps a little speculation.)

Guam

An island that apparently scares people to the degree that they dare not utter its name.

Lets see for ourselves what kind of beast we are talking about:


I haven't been able to locate Guams State Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic primaries. But here is what TheGreenPapers have to say about it:
-------
A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 8 of Guam's 13 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 4 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention). Guam's caucus is conducted like a party-run primary where voters cast secret ballots in their respective precincts. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates.

* Each of these 8 pledged delegates will only cast ½ (or 0.5) of a vote on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.
-------

So just to muddy the concept waters, we now have a caucus run as a primary.
(The final 5 of the 9 mentioned delegates are the super delegates.)

Pollsters seem to avoid the Guam subject too, as I have been unable to find any polls on what the outcome might likely be in Guam.
What we can say is what the percentages for a given split will look like:

Split percentages: | 6,250% | 18,750% | 31,250% | 43,750% | 56,250% | 68,750% | 81,250% | 93,750% |

So to get a 2,5-1,5 split for +1 delegate either candidate will have to get above 56,25% of the vote. 68,75% for a 3-1 win seems a little bit too much out of the ordinary for any of the two candidates, but I really have no clue.

So there you have it. Not so scary after all, huh?

Would love to hear from anyone willing to offer up opinion, or even better, numbers on what the situation is out there.
(phrigndumass has a presentation of Guam here. Not sure it holds up though. )

Hello everyone!

Time for

The Danish Pennsylvania Democratic Primaries Prediction Projection Presentation v2.0

See v1.0 here.



Been searching for predictions on the districts today.

So far I have found five different takes on it:
minvis at myDD (yeah, I know, but it is relatively unbiased afaict)
Al Giordano at TheField
PsiFighter37 at dKos
CQPolitics
ObamaManiac2008 at dKos

The first two are from march 12. The next two are relatively fresh from within the last week. And the last is from today.
Apply whatever source critique you feel it needs.

So lets take it one district at the time:



South and central Philadelphia; Chester

minvis: 4-3
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 4-3
OM08: 5-2

Thing is - registration is way up in this area and especially around the AA communities and college areas. Add to that an overall 51% AA population.
It is viewed as increasingly likely that this could go 5-2 for Obama. To get there he has to break 64,286%.

That would prob. require about half the white vote. I can see that happening. A guy at dKos said he would give everyone there a dollar if it didn't break that way .
I am not going to go as far. And it would be easy to downplay expectations, and err in favour of Hillarys.

But I do think all the indications are strong enough that I will call it 5-2.




West Philadelphia(born and rais<STOOOOP!> ok, sorry.); Chestnut Hill; Cheltenham
(Split listed Obama-Clinton)
minvis: 6-3
AG: 6-3
PsiFighter: 7-2
CQpolitics: 7-2
OM08: 7-2

As you can see the newer predictions say 7-2. That needs a 72,222% vote for Obama.
The area is majority AA with an addition of a sizeable group of high education liberals. In that light the needed percentage is definately likely.
I am keeping that at 7-2. 83,333% for an 8-1 split is probably out of the question.




Northwest — Erie

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

In order for Obama to avoid the 1-4 split he needs to clear 30%. Not a good area for him, but he didn't go under 30 in the nearby Ohio areas, afaict, so I think 2-3 is the likely split. 3-2 seems way out of the question. Don't be overly surprised if it goes 1-4 though.



West — Pittsburgh suburbs

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Same deal as CD #3. Except here the suburbs of Pittsburgh should make it relatively sure that he clears the 30% threshold. Calling it 2-3 Clinton.




North central — State College

minvis: 2-2
AG: 1-3
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

For it to break 1-3 or 3-1 either needs to take 62,5%. And it could look p0ssible for Hillary, if it wasn't for Penn State. 2-2 it is. Outside chance of 1-3 Clinton.




Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs

minvis: 3-3
AG: 3-3
PsiFighter: 3-3
CQpolitics: 3-3
OM08: 3-3

The break to a 4-2 split here is 58,333%. This could come down to the turnout and how new voters and undecided break. I have seen nothing to support a break either way though. Sticking with the five above. 3-3.



Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County

minvis: 3-4
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 4-3

Joe Sestak has endorsed Clinton. High income, highly educated parts, white area. Depends highly on turnout.
Very tough call. Sounds and looks like it could be 4-3 Obama if he gets enough new democrats.
Afraid to be too optimistic Obamas way and calling it 3-4 in Clintons favour.
64,286% for a 5-2 for either is not likely.



Northern Philadelphia suburbs — Bucks County

minvis: 4-3
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 4-3
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 3-4

Seems very similar to CD #7. Except here we have Obama support in Patrick J. Murphy, an Irag veteran that will probably, and probably already has, worked hard for Obama.
4-3 Obama. Its close though.
Again: 64,286% for a 5-2 for either is not likely.




South central — Altoona

minvis: 1-2
AG: 1-2
PsiFighter: 1-2
CQpolitics: 1-2
OM08: 1-2

Red country. Clinton will surely take this with 50+ for the odd delegate. But 83,333%
for all three is more or less out of the question.




Northeast — Central Susquehanna Valley

minvis: 2-2
AG: 1-3
PsiFighter: 1-3
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 1-3

Strong Clinton country. She needs to break 62,5% to get the 3-1 split and probably will. It _could_ go 2-2 i the close polls holds up. And I will get back to that down below.
1-3 it is.




District #11 -- Northeast — Scranton, Wilke-Barre

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 1-4
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Scranton+ should be Clinton territory. If she breaks 70% its here. Even with Casey out for Obama.
Calling it 1-4 for Clinton.




District #12 Southwest — Johnstown

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 1-4
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 1-4

Again strong Clinton country. Throw in Murtha and we have a probable 1-4 in Clintons favour. Only plus for Obama is a lot of surburban area preventing him falling under 30%. Possibly. Calling it 2-3.

#11 could go 2-3 and #12 could go 1-4 depending on how well Obama does overall.




District #13 East — Northeast Philadelphia, part of Montgomery County

minvis: 3-4
AG: 4-3
PsiFighter: 3-4
CQpolitics: 3-4
OM08: 3-4

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz is a Hillary backer, but it being quite diverse Philly suburbs, it will probably contain Clinton to a 4-3 split.




District #14 Pittsburgh and some close-in suburbs

minvis: 4-3
AG: 3-4
PsiFighter: 3-4
CQpolitics: 4-3
OM08: 4-3

3rd highest AA population of the districts just under 25%. besides that it should be advantage Clinton. Going a little out on a limb, so you can laugh at me afterwards, and call it 4-3 Obama as I think he will break the 50% mark here.




District #15 East — Allentown, Bethlehem

minvis: 2-3
AG: 2-3
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Clinton will win this one. But not with the 70% needed to break it 4-1. Think this is one of the the more solid results and picking it at 2-3.




District #16 Southeast — Lancaster, part of Reading

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Surburban area. Nothing to indicate that either will break the 62,5% mark for a 3-1. If it does it will be Clinton. But then Obama has probably had a relatively bad day.
2-2 it is.



District #17 East central — Harrisburg, Lebanon, Pottsville

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Rural area and Clinton land, with Harrisburg thrown in. She probably wont break the 62,5% mark for a 3-1, And some even think a small win for Obama here is not out of the question. But small doesn't move delegates in a 4 delegate district.
2-2 it is.




District #18 West — Pittsburgh suburbs, part of Washington and Westmoreland counties

minvis: 2-3
AG: 1-4
PsiFighter: 2-3
CQpolitics: 2-3
OM08: 2-3

Large rural areas, combined with high education suburbs. Enough to give Clinton 50%+ but not 70%+. for a 1-4.
Quite sure this goes 2-3.




District #19 South central — York, Gettysburg

minvis: 2-2
AG: 2-2
PsiFighter: 2-2
CQpolitics: 2-2
OM08: 2-2

Good Clinton base, but neighbouring Maryland areas show Obama have some strength here. At least enough to keep it above 37,5% for a 2-2 split.

----

So there we have it. My take on other peoples takes (yeah, you'll have to forgive me. My american history and geography classes here in Denmark were limited, so I take the help I can get ).

And my total is: Obama 50 - Clinton 53.
Same as the first time, arriving via a slightly different path.

--

Now on to something interesting:

The polls on popular vote. And the delegates they bring.

I have:
SUSA - Clinton 50 Obama 44
Mason-Dixon - Clinton 48, Obama 43
Rasmussen - Clinton 49, Obama 44
Quinnipiac - Clinton 51, Obama 44
Suffolk - Clinton 52, Obama 42
PPP - Obama 49, Clinton 46
...
..
..
Now who choked on their preferred beverage on the last one?

It would be easy to dismiss that as a statistical outlier - and probably is to some degree.
But as far as I can tell PPP has been on the money so far. And they called Wisconsin when everone else was calling them crazy. We could be in for something interesting here. If it holds up, any possible flips in the above, can go Obamas way.

I will calculate them into the average of all 6, which gives us:

Obama 44,333 Clinton 49,333

Seems they all agree that the undecideds will break 6-4 for Clinton. But new registrations is expected to break likewise for Obama. So I will split them evenly.

That gives us:

PLEOs: Obama 10 Clinton 10

At-Large: Obama 17 Clinton 18.

There is a threshold right around the 5% and 6% in the two cases, so Clinton could likely gain up to 4 more if it swings just a little her way from those numbers.

But it leaves my total at 4 delegates for Hillary. Possibly 6 or 8.

That can of course all change if one of the wider margins polled holds up. But even Suffolks 10 point spread only gives her 5 of the Statewide delegates. But that would probably also mean that she flips a district or two for a total of 12.

But just for fun, and to validate all my work, I am going to stick to my 4 delegate result.
You can always fire me as your number cruncher after tomorrow.

This of course will be turned upside down if Obama runs away with the popular vote like PPP predicts currently.

But what do you guys say? Am I crazy? Have I completely missed a truckload of points?

Yeah, sorry to drag you in under what many will probably find a slightly misleading header.

But I have seen and heard many theories and numbers thrown about, as to what it would take for Hillary to make up the differences in pledged delegates fighting over the last 566 pledged delegates.

So I figured I would sit down and do the numbers like I had done for Pennsylvania here.

I have applied different popular vote percentages uniformly across the board, district and state level, for all the remaining districts and state delegate lots.
(Would take quite some time and probably be close to impossible for me to make specific projections for the remaining 66 districts in play.)
This is including Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

So here are the numbers (EDIT: correction from original numbers, where PLEOs and At-large from PA wasn't in):
Popular vote and corresponding HRC gain:
55-45 = +56
60-40 = +110
65-35 = +188
70-30 = +242

So even if Hillary lands 60-40 in ALL the remaining contests - again applied evenly over all districts - she will still be just under 50 short as I see it. (That is including the current committed SDs. In only pledged delegates she is currently around 160 behind.)

Of course, if she does that, her case with super delegates will prob. look rather different than it does now.
But as far as this post goes I am just a numbers man.

So there you have them. Questions, petitions for other numbers(Superball/Lotto/Bingo excluded), criticism and general applause is very welcome.

(One note: Guam is treated as a normal 4 delegate district in this - while it will in fact send 8 ½vote delegates. So there is a +/- 1 delegate error margin on the numbers )

Oh, and I know this is boring numbers stuff, but if you appreciate that I did them nonetheless, please rec.