Hello everyone. Time for some facts again (and perhaps a little speculation.)

Guam

An island that apparently scares people to the degree that they dare not utter its name.

Lets see for ourselves what kind of beast we are talking about:


I haven't been able to locate Guams State Delegate Selection Plan for the Democratic primaries. But here is what TheGreenPapers have to say about it:
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A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 8 of Guam's 13 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 4 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention). Guam's caucus is conducted like a party-run primary where voters cast secret ballots in their respective precincts. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates.

* Each of these 8 pledged delegates will only cast ½ (or 0.5) of a vote on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.
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So just to muddy the concept waters, we now have a caucus run as a primary.
(The final 5 of the 9 mentioned delegates are the super delegates.)

Pollsters seem to avoid the Guam subject too, as I have been unable to find any polls on what the outcome might likely be in Guam.
What we can say is what the percentages for a given split will look like:

Split percentages: | 6,250% | 18,750% | 31,250% | 43,750% | 56,250% | 68,750% | 81,250% | 93,750% |

So to get a 2,5-1,5 split for +1 delegate either candidate will have to get above 56,25% of the vote. 68,75% for a 3-1 win seems a little bit too much out of the ordinary for any of the two candidates, but I really have no clue.

So there you have it. Not so scary after all, huh?

Would love to hear from anyone willing to offer up opinion, or even better, numbers on what the situation is out there.
(phrigndumass has a presentation of Guam here. Not sure it holds up though. )