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dbmk's Journal
Posted by dbmk in General Discussion: Presidential
Sun Apr 20th 2008, 04:51 PM
Yeah, sorry to drag you in under what many will probably find a slightly misleading header.

But I have seen and heard many theories and numbers thrown about, as to what it would take for Hillary to make up the differences in pledged delegates fighting over the last 566 pledged delegates.

So I figured I would sit down and do the numbers like I had done for Pennsylvania here.

I have applied different popular vote percentages uniformly across the board, district and state level, for all the remaining districts and state delegate lots.
(Would take quite some time and probably be close to impossible for me to make specific projections for the remaining 66 districts in play.)
This is including Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

So here are the numbers (EDIT: correction from original numbers, where PLEOs and At-large from PA wasn't in):
Popular vote and corresponding HRC gain:
55-45 = +56
60-40 = +110
65-35 = +188
70-30 = +242

So even if Hillary lands 60-40 in ALL the remaining contests - again applied evenly over all districts - she will still be just under 50 short as I see it. (That is including the current committed SDs. In only pledged delegates she is currently around 160 behind.)

Of course, if she does that, her case with super delegates will prob. look rather different than it does now.
But as far as this post goes I am just a numbers man.

So there you have them. Questions, petitions for other numbers(Superball/Lotto/Bingo excluded), criticism and general applause is very welcome.

(One note: Guam is treated as a normal 4 delegate district in this - while it will in fact send 8 ˝vote delegates. So there is a +/- 1 delegate error margin on the numbers )

Oh, and I know this is boring numbers stuff, but if you appreciate that I did them nonetheless, please rec.
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