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dbmk's Journal
Posted by dbmk in General Discussion: Presidential
Thu May 01st 2008, 11:23 AM
Given the current numbers from DemConWatch, the need for superdelegates look like this, given an estimate for GU/IN/NC that I think is reasonably favoured for Senator Clinton:



Notes:

Hillary needs 40% of the SDs even if she takes 100% of the pledged delegates after IN/NC.

Obama can still do it in that situation with 65-70% of the SDs.

Its probably more likely to be a 50-50 from there, making the numbers around 75% for Hillary and 27% for Obama.
Which in absolute numbers are about 218 for Hillary and 78 for Obama.
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