Hello guys and girls!

Time for the post on the second of tomorrows contests.

I give you

North Carolina

According to the Selection Plan for North Carolina the pledged delegates are distributed as follows:

District-Level Delegates: 77 - distributed over 13 districts of varying size allocations.
Pledged PLEO Delegates: 12
At-Large Delegates: 26

For a total of 115 pledged delegates at stake in tomorrows primary.

Lets have a look at the districts. I am going to work from the different predictions I have been able to find on the different blogs out there.
PsiFighter37 at dKos
fivethirtyeight.coms computermodel
Elliot at electioninspection - he won the prediction contest on PA at TheField.

Contrary to the Indiana districts there is quite a few districts with an odd number of delegates. That makes it quite a bit more important who gets the popular vote, even if by a little, in a given district.
As you go down over the districts remember to marvel at display after display of gerrymandering at its absolute finest.

6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

50% AA population combined with low income, old whites. The 58,333% should be guaranteed for a 4-2 split for Obama. As PsiFighter37 points out he did come close to the 75% in neighbouring Virginia districts, so the 5-1 might be in reach - if a bit of a stretch.

6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

The guys at 538 says this could go 4-2 Obama, even though we are dealing with some poorer areas, since its split evenly among the demographics - and is the one of the youngest and most male district. The two others think he will have problems breaking the 58,333% barrier. I'm keeping at 3-3.

4 Delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Young, middleclass whites and a lot of rural area. Not enough to carry either over 62,5% for a 3-1 split.

9 Delegates -- Split percentages | 5,556% | 16,667% | 27,778% | 38,889% | 50,000% | 61,111% | 72,222% | 83,333% | 94,444%
Prediction: Obama 6 Clinton 3

High income, highly educated, two universities. representative David Price is an Obama endorser. Obama will break the 61,111% to get a 6-3 split. 7-2 is viewed as unlikely, but not altogether impossible.

5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

White lower middle class Appalachian district. Clinton land. But not enough to get Obama under 30%, which will get him the 2 delegates.

5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Described as CD#5 with a better education. Clinton win, but not a 70%+.

6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

58,333% to get a 4-2 split seems to be to much for either. Slight favour to Obama though, due to a good base of high education and 21% AA population - could bring him near the 4-2 split.

5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 2

30% AA population and large part urban areas. Obama did fine in neighbouring SC districts. Should be a solid 3-2 for him.

6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

Upper white middle class. Our predictors seems a little split on which way it could go. PF37 says Hillary has the better chance of the 4-2 split. 538 says Obama will make with a few % to spare, and Elliot says he will make the 4-2 no problem. Slight favour for 4-2 makes it our guess.

5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Another Appalachia district like CD#5 that will favour Clinton, but probably not bring her past the 70% for a 4-1 split.

6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 4

Good area for Clinton. But Asheville is apparently a place for the more liberal, Dennish Kucinich voting, democrats which might affect the vote in favour of Obama enough to avoid the 75% for Clinton that would net her a 5-1 split.

7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Look at that picture again. Is a beauty of a district, won't you agree?

Urban district with 45% AA population. That along with a high level of education should easily bring Obama over the 64,286% mark for a 5-2 split.

7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Well educated middle class and 27% AA population will win this for Obama. 64,286% for the 5-2 split is within reach and could happen.

That gives us a total on the district level delegates of:

Obama 42 - Clinton 35

Seems like Obama is closer to expanding that than Hillary is to contracting it. But the totals look relatively solid +/- 2 either way.

Statewide delegates

Realclearpolitics have a average on the polls atm at just under 7% for Obama. Personally I think it will be higher than that, so lets play with 8%.
That gives us:

Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
12 Delegates
Split percentages from 3 to 11 | 20,833% | 29,167% | 37,500% | 45,833% | 54,167% | 62,500% | 70,833% | 79,167% | 87,500% |

Obama 6 - Clinton 6

A tad more and Obama breaks this 7-5. 8-4 would be a 25 point win. Not likely

At-Large Delegates
26 Delegates
Split percentages from 9 to 17 | 32,692% | 36,538% | 40,385% | 44,231% | 48,077% | 51,923% | 55,769% | 59,615% | 63,462% |

Obama 14 - Clinton 12

If Obama goes double digits, a 15-11 split is close.

But all in all out numbers give us a grand total of:

Obama 62 - Clinton 53

A 9 delegate win for Senator Obama. I still have a feeling Obama is underestimated in the above, but there you have it. 5 more than
I have in Indiana for Senator Clinton.

Anyways - there you have it. What do YOU think?