Historical Election Analysis: Uncounted and Switched votes

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...

The Democrats lose votes in every election. This analysis determines the effect of uncounted and switched votes on presidential elections going back to 1948 – as well as on the 2006 midterms. The landslide elections are not included: Eisenhower (1952-56); Johnson (1964); Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984). T

The adjusted vote shares show that Gore and Clinton won by higher margins than the recorded votes indicate. The 1988 Bush-Dukakis election is especially suspicious.

The True 2004 vote (Kerry 66.1- Bush 58.38mm) was determined by calculating the approximate number of returning Gore, Bush and Nader voters (2000 recorded vote less 3.5% % mortality, assuming 95% 2000 voter turnout). The 12:22am National Exit poll vote shares were the most-likely base case scenario. According to the U.S. Census, 3.4mm of 125.74mm votes were uncounted. Assuming that 75% of the uncounted votes were for Kerry, then 7.3% (4.5mm) of the total votes cast for Kerry must have been switched. The switched vote rate was based on the following equation:

True Vote = Recorded +Uncounted + Switched.

In 1988, Dukakis led Bush I in the preliminary exit polls, just as Kerry led in 2004. Assuming a 3% uncounted vote rate and that 7% of Dukakis votes were switched to Bush I (the same percentage switched from Kerry to Bush II), then Dukakis won the election by 50.3-49.7%.

For 1980, a 3.0% switched vote rate is assumed (Bush I was running as VP). In 1968 Nixon won by 500,000 votes; we assume a 1% switched-vote rate. For Carter in 1980, JFK in 1960 and Truman in 1948, the switched vote rate is assumed to be zero.

A sensitivity analysis table for each election displays the effects of changes in the Democratic share of uncounted votes and percentage of switched Democratic votes.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...

In the 2006 midterms, the Democrats gained 31 congressional seats – a solid victory. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% – and gain more than 40 seats. The National Exit Poll at 7pm (55D-43R) confirmed the pre-election trend: a Democratic tsunami was taking place. But at 1pm the next day, the Final NEP used implausible weights and vote shares in order to once again force a match to the recorded vote count. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 additional seats.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...

Kerry won the final NY pre-election poll by 59-40 which closely matched the 58.5-40.2 recorded vote. The NY exit poll was Kerry 62.75-Bush 35.35- Other 1.9. But this implies that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush- clearly impossible.

The 2000 recorded vote was Gore 60.5 - Bush 35.4 - Nader 4.1. According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader 2000 voters by 71-21%; 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected.

Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote, and using 12:22am NEP vote shares the adjusted vote becomes Kerry 60.8-Bush 38.1%, well within the 2.6% NY exit poll margin of error for 1452 respondents. But Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than it was nationwide.

Adjusting Kerry’s NEP Voted 2000 vote shares to plausible NY levels, Kerry wins by 62.7-36.3%, matching the exit poll. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 91-95% of NY Gore voters and 54-62% of those who did not vote in 2000, his NY vote share ranges from 60.5-63.7%.

A third analysis, based on uncounted and switched votes added to the recorded vote, indicates that Kerry won NY by 62.8-35.8%. The analysis assumes that 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry) and 7% were switched from Kerry to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average since NY uses lever voting machines. The 7% switched vote assumption reflects the national result based on the 12:22am Exit poll adjusted for feasible weights.

Assumptions
95% voter turnout in 2004 of Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters
3% mortality
12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares

Recorded
2000.................... 2004
Gore 4112 60.5% Kerry 4314 58.48%
Bush 2405 35.4% Bush 2963 40.17%
Nader 277 4.1% Other 100 1.35%
Total 6794........ Total 7377


Calculated

NY2k Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 15.1% 1116 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.4% 3789 91% 8% 1%
Bush 30.0% 2216 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.5% 255 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 60.83% 38.08% 1.09%
Total 7377 4487 2809 81


Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry% Kerry% DNV
Gore 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61%

89% 59.3% 59.5% 59.7% 59.8% 60.0% 60.1% 60.3% 60.4%
90% 59.9% 60.0% 60.2% 60.3% 60.5% 60.6% 60.8% 60.9%
91% 60.4% 60.5% 60.7% 60.8% 61.0% 61.1% 61.3% 61.4%
92% 60.9% 61.0% 61.2% 61.3% 61.5% 61.6% 61.8% 61.9%
93% 61.4% 61.6% 61.7% 61.9% 62.0% 62.2% 62.3% 62.5%


Adjusted NY Vote Shares

New weights were calculated based on NY 2000 recorded vote
adjusted for 95% turnout and 0.87% annual mortality rate.
Kerry NEP vote shares were increased to reflect his NY vote.

Kerry wins by 62.70-36.30%, closely matching his True Vote calculation and the NY Exit Poll.

NYS Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 15.6% 1149 62% 36% 2%
Gore 51.1% 3770 93% 7% 0%
Bush 29.9% 2205 11% 89% 0%
Other 3.4% 254 65% 15% 20%

Adj 100% 62.70% 36.30% 1.00%

NY Exit 100% 62.75% 35.35% 1.90%
True Vote 62.82% 35.83% 1.35%

Actual 7377 58.48% 40.17% 1.35%

Adj 7377 4626 2678 74
Actual 7377 4314 2963 100
Diff 6.73% 312 -285 -26


Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry Kerry% DNV
%Gore 54% 57% 59% 61% 62%

91% 60.5% 60.9% 61.2% 61.5% 61.7%
92% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8% 62.0% 62.2%
93% 61.5% 62.0% 62.3% 62.6% 62.7%
94% 62.1% 62.5% 62.8% 63.1% 63.2%
95% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 63.6% 63.7%


NY True Vote: Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments

NYS Votes Kerry Bush Other
Actual 7377 4314 2963 100
Unctd 2% 75% 24% 1%
Unctd 151 113 36 2

NYS Total 7528 4427 2999 101
Pct 100% 58.81% 39.84% 1.35%
Switch 7.0% 302 -302 0

True 7527 4729 2697 101
100% 62.82% 35.83% 1.35%
Diff 415 -266 2

Nice Job for Rove in MO, Schlotzman!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discu...

And now from the Repugnant National Committee:

http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:YxB2_F...

2006 FAST FACTS ON VOTER FRAUD

Tennessee Bureau Of Investigation Is Reviewing Reports Of Double Voting In Memphis, TN; 12 Smartcards Used To Activate Electronic Voting Machines Went Missing From A An Early Voting Location.

In 2006, Thousands Of Potentially Fraudulent Registration Cards Have Been Submitted By Democrat-Affiliated Groups In The Battleground States Of Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, And Pennsylvania.

Democrat Registration Cards In Question Feature The Names Of Deceased People, Forged Signatures, Nonexistent And Invalid Names And Addresses, And Fraudulent Social Security Numbers.

A Federal Grand Jury Indicted Workers From The Left-Wing Voter Registration Group ACORN For Submitting False Voter Registrations In Kansas City.

ACORN Reportedly Illegally Campaigned For Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill (D-MO).

Thousands Of Deceased Citizens Remain Registered To Vote In Missouri And New York.

This Cycle, Democrat Primary Elections In Kentucky And New Jersey Have Already Led To Indictments And Arrests Alleging Vote-Buying And Absentee Ballot Fraud.
Chairman Of The Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), Called On The IRS To Monitor ACORN For Potentially Violating Tax Laws.

These 2006 Activities Parallel The Widespread Democrat Fraud And Intimidation Of The 2004 Election. In 2004, The Democrat Playbook Was To Fake Voter Intimidation Even If It Didn't Exist.

snip

MISSOURI : Thousands Of Questionable Voter Registration Cards Submitted By ACORN In St. Louis:

"St. Louis County Election Officials Claim Hundreds Of Fraudulent Voter Address Changes Have Been Turned In By ACORN ..." ("ACORN Accused Of More Bogus Election Forms," The Associated Press, 10/25/06)

"At Last Count, The City Election Board Has Compiled 4,000 Questionable Voter Registration Cards ..." (Jo Mannies, "County Finds Bogus Voter Information," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 10/25/06)

"Voter Registration Cards Were Forged For A Dead Person, Had False Signatures And Change Of Addresses Or Incorrect And Missing Personal Information ..." ("ACORN Accused Of More Bogus Election Forms," The Associated Press, 10/25/06)

"The St. Louis Elections Director Estimated That After Investigating 5,000 Registrations Turned In By ACORN, Only 10 To 15 Percent Were Legitimate And It Had Appeared That Names Had Been Copied From The Phone Book." (Employment Policies Institute, "ACORN In Hot Water Again For Voter Fraud," Press Release, 10/31/06)

" Perkins Says That She Knew That At Least One ACORN Worker Was Fabricating Cards From The Phone Book And From Newspaper Obituaries And That She Reported It Weeks Ago." (Jeremy Kohler, "Allegations Of Fraud Cloud ACORN Voter Drive Again," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 10/29/06)

MISSOURI: ACORN Workers In Kansas City Indicted By Federal Grand Jury:

"A Federal Grand Jury Handed Up Indictments ... Against Four People For Allegedly Submitting False Voter Registrations To The Kansas City Election Board." (Dave Helling, "False Voter Registrations Allegedly Submitted," The Kansas City Star, 11/2/06)

"All Four Defendants Worked ... For ... ACORN." (Dave Helling, "False Voter Registrations Allegedly Submitted," The Kansas City Star, 11/2/06)
" Election Director Ray James Said ... More Than 15,000 Registrations ... Have 'Discrepancies' ..." (Dave Helling, "Election Officials Seek Voter Registration Inquiry," The Kansas City Star, 10/24/06)
"Most Of The Names Were Submitted By ... ACORN." (Dave Helling, "Election Officials Seek Voter Registration Inquiry," The Kansas City Star, 10/24/06)

MISSOURI : Missouri GOP Filed Complaint With The Federal Election Commission Over ACORN's Illegal Campaigning For Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill (D-MO):

"The Missouri Republican Party Has Asked Federal Election Regulators To Investigate Whether A Group That Registers Voters Illegally Campaigned For Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill." (Jeff Douglas, "Missouri Republicans Allege Illegal Campaigning For McCaskill," The Associated Press, 10/13/06)

"The Complaint Sent To The Federal Elections Commission ... Points To An Online Video Testimony From Former Employees Of The St. Louis Branch Of The Association Of Community Organizations For Reform Now -- Or ACORN." (Jeff Douglas, "Missouri Republicans Allege Illegal Campaigning For McCaskill," The Associated Press, 10/13/06)

"The Video ... Shows Two ACORN Workers Protesting ... That They Were Never Paid For Signing Up New Voters. Two Workers Said In The Video They Were Told By ACORN To Solicit Votes For McCaskill While Registering Voters." (Jeff Douglas, "Missouri Republicans Allege Illegal Campaigning For McCaskill," The Associated Press, 10/13/06)

"The Four-Page Complaint Claims That It's Illegal For ACORN To Solicit Votes Because The Nonprofit Organization Is Not Registered To Do So." (Jeff Douglas, "Missouri Republicans Allege Illegal Campaigning For McCaskill," The Associated Press, 10/13/06)

MISSOURI : Thousands Of Deceased Citizens Remain Registered To Vote In Missouri :

" ... 10,520 Deceased Citizens ... Remain Registered To Vote In Missouri ... 235 ... According To A State Database Created Earlier This Year ... Managed To Cast A Vote After Death." (Matt Wynn, "Deceased Still On State's Voting Rolls," The Missourian, 11/2/06)

"Dead People Remain On The Voter Rolls Of Every County In Missouri. St. Louis County Leads The State With 2,270 Registered Voters Who Are Dead." (Matt Wynn, "Deceased Still On State's Voting Rolls," The Missourian, 11/2/06)

Fox News' Jeff Goldblatt: "The U.S. Justice Department ... filed suit ... against a secretary of state here, asserting in part that federal election law requires 'immediate removals from the voting registration list used in elections for federal office based on death.' But some people seem intent on bringing the dead back to life for this election." (Fox News' "Special Report," 11/3/06)

..............................................................

Now for the Truth:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...


The 2006 Midterms

Summary Analysis

This is the final of three pre-election articles I wrote with Michael Collins (autorank) and Alistair Thompson of SCOOP. The purpose was to quantify the risk of fraud in the 2006 Mid-terms. The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and Senate. It also indicated the House seats and Senate races where fraud was most likely to occur. And extensively documented voting “anomalies” confirmed that perhaps millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.

The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240 House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats, although they barely won Virginia and Montana. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House and Senate.

There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies were caused by uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the Final National Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use of fallacious weightings. The 2006 Final “How Voted in 2004” weights were manipulated just like they were in the 2004 Final “How Voted in 2000”.

In 2006, the weights were transformed from 47 Bush/ 45 Kerry at 7pm to 49 Bush/ 43 Kerry at 1pm the next day! This replicated the 41 Bush/39 Gore to impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weight changes in 2004. The net effect of the change was to cut the Democratic margin in half -from 55-43% to 52-46%! Applying realistic weights to the 7pm NEP (using the 12:22am 2004 NEP) the Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120- Generic poll trend projection! Was it a coincidence or confirmation? You decide.

This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.

Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the pre-BushCo world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.


more Truth....

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...


This is what Richard Morin , a Washington Post Staff Writer, wrote on Thursday, November 4, 2004:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...

“An Election Day filled with unexpected twists ended with a familiar question: What went wrong with the network exit polls?... In two previous national elections, the exit polls had behaved badly. Premature calls by the networks in Florida led to a congressional investigation in 2000. Two years later, a computer meltdown resulted in no release of data on Election Day…. Results based on the first few rounds of interviewing are usually only approximations of the final vote. Printouts warn that estimates of each candidate's support are unreliable and not for on-air use.….That is why the early leaks anger Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducted Tuesday's exit poll with Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press…. After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics”.

---------------------------------------------------------
Dec.12, 2000 is a day that will live in infamy. Bush needed the help of five right-wing Republicans on the Supreme Court to stop the recount in Florida and enable him to steal the election. There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the 2004 election. State and national pre-election and exit polls pointed to a Kerry victory. Those who claim that Bush won fair and square are relentless in their attempts to thrash polling analyses which suggest that fraud occurred. Since the media will not release tell-tale precinct-level data, analysts must rely on publicly available polling data. And they have determined that the polls provide powerful statistical evidence of fraud. “Voter fraud” has been shown to be a non-existent distraction from the evidence of massive “election fraud”. Voters don’t fix elections, election officials do. The corporate media was quick to dismiss claims of election fraud as a left-wing “conspiracy theory” and the statistical polling analyses of “spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers”.

The media never considered the possibility that the votes may have been miscounted and that the exit polls were essentially correct. They just took it for granted that the vote count was accurate (i.e. the election was fraud-free). After all, isn’t that why the exit poll results are always adjusted to match the vote count? But they never asked why the National Exit Poll had Kerry leading by a steady 51-48% at 4pm (8649 respondents), at 7:30pm (1107 respondents) and 12:22am (13047 respondents) only to see Bush win the 2pm Final (13660 respondents) by 51-48%. Of course, they never did an analysis which would have shown that the adjusted Final NEP weights were impossible and that the adjusted vote shares were implausible. And they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the election was stolen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discu...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...

The True Vote Model

The model encapsulates mathematical arguments which strongly suggest that Kerry easily won the 2004 election. The base case assumes the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares. The 2000 recorded vote, mortality rate and 2000 voter turnout in 2004 are used to determine mathematically feasible (and plausible) weights.

You can download it from here. You need Excel. I found it to be a great learning tool and easy to use. But I couldn't come up with one plausible Bush win scenario in trying to satisfy the TIA challenge.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Ker...

The model determined that 2.6mm (3.9%) of total votes cast for Kerry were uncounted and that 4.5mm (6.8%) votes were switched to Bush. Adding the 7.1mm votes to Kerry’s 59.0mm recorded vote, he won a 66.1–58.4mm landslide with a 336-202 electoral vote margin. A powerful sensitivity analysis displays the effects of changes in input assumptions on Kerry’s national vote for hundreds of scenarios.

The Facts:
1) In 2000, 51.004 million voted for Gore, 50.459 for Bush and 3.275 for Nader and others.
2) Approximately 3.6mm of the 104.7mm who voted in 2000 died prior to 2004. The annual mortality rate was 0.87%.
3) The 2004 recorded vote (122.3mm) consisted of returning Gore, Bush, Nader, first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000(DNV2k).

The Final 2004 NEP weightings were mathematically impossible. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.9mm) of the 2004 recorded vote; he only had 50.46mm votes in 2000 and approximately 48.7mm were alive in 2004. A maximum of 49.2mm Gore voters and 48.7mm Bush voters could have voted in 2004.

Since the impossible Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote must have been impossible as well. The fact that Kerry’s vote shares declined dramatically from the 12:22am NEP timeline to the 2pm Final is further confirmation that the Final did not reflect the true vote; rather, it was matched to a fraudulent, miscounted vote. Evidence of fraud abounds in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, etc.


Base Case Assumptions

1) 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)
Kerry won 57% of new voters(DNV2k);
91% of Gore, 10% of Bush and 71% of Nader voters.
In the Final 2pm NEP (13660 respondents) which was matched to the recorded vote, Kerry won 54% of DNV, 90% of Gore, 9% of Bush and 71% of Nader voters.

2) 2000 Voter mortality
The annual mortality rate was 0.87%. Therefore the assumption is that 4*0.87= 3.5% of 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election.

3) 2000 Voter Turnout in 2004
An unknown percentage of Gore, Bush and Nader voters turned out in 2004.
For the base case, we assume 95%.

4) Uncounted Votes
According to the Census (and Greg Palast), approximately 125.7 million ballots were cast in 2004. Only 122.3mm were recorded. Therefore, 3.4mm (2.74%) of the total votes cast were uncounted.

5) Kerry share of Uncounted votes
The vast majority of uncounted (lost, spoiled, absentee, etc.) ballots are from heavily Democratic minority districts. Therefore, the base case assumption is that Kerry won 75% (2.58mm) of the uncounted votes.

Calculation of the Base Case Scenario:
Kerry 66.10mm (52.57%)
Bush 58.38mm (46.43%)
Other 1.27mm (1.01%)


Switched Votes:
Now we have the information we need to calculate the number of votes which were switched from Kerry to Bush.

The True Vote is a simple sum of three parameters, two of which are known:
True Vote = Recorded Vote + Uncounted Votes + Switched Votes

Given Kerry’s true vote, recorded and uncounted votes, we can solve for the number of votes which were switched to Bush:

Switched Votes = True Vote - Recorded - Uncounted
4.488 = 66.097 - 59.027 - 2.582

Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

What are the chances that Kerry would win the final 5 million two-party recorded votes by 54.6-45.4% after losing the first 116 million by 51.5-48.5%? That's a 12% flip in margin (-3% to +9%).

These are ACTUAL RECORDED votes, NOT exit poll results.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Tru...

Late Vote Anomalies

How does one explain these discrepancies in the recorded state vote shares? A total of 121.06 million votes were recorded for Bush and Kerry. Bush won 51.5% of the initial 115.81mm. But Kerry won 54.6% of the final 5.26mm. The probability of this discrepancy occurring due to chance is virtually ZERO.

Kerry exceeded his initial vote share in 38 states, including 15 of 19 battleground states. Corresponding state vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states.

A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote. But the state and national exit polls indicated he was losing. The vote-rigging ended before the final 5 million votes were recorded since Bush “won” the electoral vote and led by 3.5mm in the popular vote. After the final 5mm votes were recorded, the Bush “mandate” declined by 0.5 million to a final 62-59mm.


Far West
(virtually ZERO change from initial to late Kerry vote share)
AZ -0.1% change in last 354k reported
CA -0.8% change in last 2424k reported
WA 0.4% change in last 379k reported

Kerry% Share of Late Vote (000)


Mountain
CO 56% of 74k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 52.4-47.6%
MT 55% of 1.1k
NM 61% of 12k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 50.4-49.6%

Midwest
IA 62% of 14k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 50.3-49.7%
IL 67% of 98k *** Kerry won the recorded 2-party vote by 55.2-44.8%
IN 64% of 13k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 60.4-39.6%
MO 61% of 8k
NE 42% of 47k

East
MD 60% of 183k *** Kerry won the recorded 2-party vote by 56.5-43.5%
MA 72% of 14k
NJ 58% of 194k *** Kerry won the recorded 2-party vote by 53.4-46.6%
NY 66% of 497k *** Kerry won the recorded 2-party vote by 59.3-40.7%
OH 56% of 145k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 51.1-48.9%
PA 59% of 92k *** Kerry won the recorded 2-party vote by 51.3-48.7%
RI 63% of 20k

South
AL 49% of 3.1k
FL 50.4% of 19k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 52.5-47.5%
GA 46% of 45k
LA 72% of 2.5k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 57.3-42.7%
MS 47% of 26k
SC 45% of 25k
TN 58% of 5k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 57.2-42.8%
VA 52% of 105k *** Bush won the recorded 2-party vote by 53.6-46.4%


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