Intrade: Clinton shares collapse – Democrats pick up 5 Rep Senate Seats
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contrac...
I) PRESIDENTIAL MARKETS

Using the principle of the “the wisdom of crowds” markets selling shares on political futures have been amongst the most accurate predictors of outcomes of political races. The price for Dems winning the White House 62, while Obama leads McCain 56 to 38.

Clinton’s shares on Intrade fell sharply over the last week. McCain and Obama have virtually the same price (95 versus 90)

Obama’s shares now top 90 while Clinton’s shares fell from 22 on May 6th to 8 on May 12th (At the same time this thread centered on the presumptive nature of the race http://journals.democraticunderground.com/... )



To give an idea of how the Clinton campaign rates on the market compare it to other long shots that are trading at similar odds:

Bird Flu will be found in the US this year 26.0

Lunar X Prize by 2012 (Private company lands on the moon) 20.2

Spitzer will be indicted 17.5

Hillary Clinton will be nominated for President 8.5

Bin Laden captured by 9/30 8.2

McCain will not be the Republican nominee 5.9

II) VICE PRESIDENTIAL MARKETS

Democrats
Clinton 15
Webb 11.5
Gore 10.7
Richardson 8.0
Warner/Strickland 5.0
Edwards 4.5
Clark 3.5
Biden 3.2
Obama 3.1

Republicans
Pawlenty 18
Romney 16.6
Huckabee 10
Giuliani 8.5
Hutchinson/Rice 4.9

III) Democrats favored to maintain control

House 96
Senate 92

IV) Senate Contests

Most contests were in the 90s but the few exceptions

Dem leads in seats now held by Republicans

Colorado 54

Minnesota 52

New Hampshire 72

New Mexico 80

Virginia 80

Republican lead in seats now held by Democrats

None

Tied

Louisiana 50


So sometimes you wonder if we are just talking to ourselves and have we missed something that the rest of the world sees or are more 'enlightened' views disconnected with reality?

Taking an occasional glimpse at Intrade shows that a lot of people who are actually investing money share our reading of the political realities. This is going to be a helpful reality check when the results of West Virginia comes in and all of those talking heads start babbling away about how Obama has to do this or that. According to all of those capitalists who are risking actual money Obama has the inside track to the White House by quite a bit.

I) THE GREAT NATIONAL SUSPENSE IS OVER

Today 448 days after fellow Hawaiian Senator Barack Obama announced his candidacy and 92 days after Senator Obama won the Hawaiian primary with 76% of the vote Hawaiian Super Delegate Dolly Strazar was able to finally able to sort through all of the complex issues of the campaign and decided to announce that she has made up her mind. The entire country eagerly awaited how this DNC representative would go after so much careful consideration. Today we know.

She supports Senator Barack Obama.

Oh and in other fast breaking news the pope is still Catholic and the Junta in Burma doesn't care about the suffering of the Burmese people.

In other earth shattering super delegate news the country was shocked that political world Senator Akaka from Hawaii, DNC Roark from Idaho (Obama won by 80%) and Rep Tom Allen from Maine (Obama won by 60%) all finally made up their minds today and endorsed a presidential candidate.

All for Senator Obama.




II) THE DREADED SPORTS ANALOGY

Nothing is more tediuous than the sports analogy, the fourth quarter - ninth inning - overtime - all evoking the futile attempt to overcome an overwhelming lead with a short clock.

What we are witnessing here however has no other analogy than to what happened on October 30, 1974 in Kinshasa, Zaire (now Democratic Republic of the Congo). The rope-a-dope strategy was used by Muhammad Ali to lay back on the ropes while a much younger and stronger George Foreman expelled all his own arm strength pummeling Ali who had his staff loosen the ropes so he could lean back while Foreman hit him. By leaning back into the ropes Foreman had to reach further and further and in the searing heat used up all his strength.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumble_in_the...
clip
Ali had told his trainer, Angelo Dundee, and his fans that he had a secret plan for Foreman. Almost right away in the second round, Ali started lying on the ropes and letting Foreman punch him, without any attempt to attack Foreman himself (a strategy Ali later dubbed the rope-a-dope).

As a result Foreman spent all his energy throwing punches (in oven-like heat), that either did not hit Ali or were blocked in a way that would do little damage to Ali. This loss of energy is the key to the "rope-a-dope" technique.
clip

In the 5th round Ali started hammering Foreman by the 6th and 7th he was teetering and in the 8th Ali knocked him out.
clip

Some argue this to have been among the greatest demonstrations of strategic planning and actual execution ever displayed in a heavyweight fight. Ali came into the fight with a tactical plan, executed it and achieved an upset for the ages, becoming only the second heavyweight ever to regain a championship.
clip




III) SENATOR CLINTON COMES OUT WITH A BANG

Senator Clinton showed her Formanesque strength in the primaries by starting with 165 Super Delegates and quickly built that number up to 224 before Super Tuesday. Forty One super delegates from New York quickly jumped on board. Obama sat back and loosened the ropes. Those pesky Hawaiian Super Delegates sure take a long time to do research on their native son. Hawaii has 2 Super Delegates in vacant positions,they haven't even bothered to fill the Chairman and Vice Chairman position. It's not the Eighth round yet.

Idaho super delegates also are very careful to consider an 80% landslide. Maine super delegates don't like to rush anything.

There are still 41 super delegates from states that Obama won by landslides. Not the states he won by 5 or 10 points, landslides.

Just a whole bunch of really carefully minded folks.

DNC Edward Smith just wants to get to know the candidates better. He wants to review their platforms. Ed is from Illinois, where evidently, they are very slow readers.





IV) THE OBLIGATORY CINEMATIC REFERENCE, PICKING THE VP.

Well the Obama campaign has provided us with an amazing demonstration of patience. They did the analysis and planning. And they were patient.

When all of those other SDs were being announced in Dec-Jan they just sat on their ammo. They knew that it is better to come from below. They knew that 40 news cycles were better than 2. They knew that there would be bad days when they needed a bunch of Super Delegates to soften the blow - oh by the way there is a primary somewhere tomorrow. Thursday, more super delegates are predicted with a drizzle to continue to the weekend when add on SDs are expected en masse.

So when it comes to picking the VP, I am glad that there is a team of strategic planners who have shown to be so strategic in their planning that I don't have to worry about it. They are not going to rush into the decision. They are going to factor in every possible angle. They are going to take as much time as ole Ed Smith in IL is in deciding who to support.

Me, whatever they decide that is what I want. Its almost as good as sex. Yes I'll have what she is having:





Who are they going to pick for Vice President? You can listen to all of the pundits, look at the polls, search for the wise DU analysis.

Me? I am going to ask Muhammad Ali.

On May 20th we may have a very good idea if Hillary Rodham Clinton is to be considered for our Vice Presidential Candidate.


I) Preface: Considering Clinton for Vice President should be no harder for Obama supporters than for Clinton supporters to consider Obama for President.

If you want Clinton supporters to accept Obama as our party’s leader for the next 8 years is it not reasonable to consider without rancor Senator Clinton as our Vice President for the next few minutes?

There is always time to go ape shit later

If you want Clinton supporters to reconcile then a civil response to this idea will be helpful, very helpful.

Of course you are completely free to explain in detail why the writer is a fucking idiot – that will cause the Clinton supporter no remorse.




II) May 20th is the decisive day.

Obama will win the pledged delegate majority, he will have the super delegate majority, he will have the Pelosi deluge. He will have money and delegates and he will be in Oregon turning his guns on the Third Bush Turn. There will be no matrix the Clinton campaign can call upon to change the reality of that night.

The next day the Clinton campaign faces the disclosure of April fund raising numbers that will show financial problems and, most likely, the $ 10 million day as a rather ambitious exaggeration. From that point on the Clintons know that they will be answering only questions about them and they will be on the defensive.



III) Hillary’s speech in Kentucky

My guess is that before Obama speaks in Oregon Clinton will give a speech in Kentucky. If that speech is about her campaign and her supporters then she will have gone out on top. If, however, we hear a speech that includes passages extolling the candidacy of Senator Obama, outlining how he has created a new possibility for the Democratic Party then there is a pretty good chance that consideration has been given to her as VP.



IV) The Case for Hillary as Vice President.

Let us put away all of the passion of the last year.

Let us consider this question simply with one factor in mind – will it help us in the General Election? Nothing else matters. The war, the destruction of the middle class, the oppression of the poor, the use of the military instead of diplomacy, the systemic collapse of environmental systems require that we put our personal feelings aside and look at the bigger picture (and it is exactly what we have been yelling at the Clinton supporters to do for weeks).

1) Why Hillary would want it. Hillary now wants, I believe, to establish a place in history as a unique contributor to the Woman’s movement. This is not a bad thing. We don’t criticize Jackie Robinson for this ambition and we shouldn’t criticize her for it either. Returning to the Senate as one among many does not fulfill that. Becoming the first woman Vice President does. There is a different type of attitude between Executive and Legislative types. Hillary prefers an executive rather than a legislative role which depends on so much collaboration.

2) The person most likely to become the 45th President is the next Vice President. She may be 61 now but she doesn’t look or act like it and in 8 years she still will be completely capable of running hard for President. Are there any Obama supporters who can argue that she doesn’t have the energy. The idea that it would be impossible for her to run in 8 years is absurd.

3) Obviously it would solve the healing problem for the party.

4) It would show that Obama is not petty. That he never took the assaults on him personally. That he is a person capable of thinking beyond himself.

5) The fact is that while I believe that Obama is going on to a massive historic win Hillary does carry certain demographics in certain states at a significant rate. For example:
















I frankly don’t consider these polls that significant when it comes to Obama because the campaign hasn’t started yet and I know that Obama is going to go up. What is significant is that Hillary, despite a fairly strange and ineffective campaign has retained higher numbers than McCain.

6) Campaign tested. It’s a tough grind doing what these two have done. And no Republican has done it. She knows the grind and she can take it.

She can debate. She has had 21 of them – or more – some of the debates she was debating 3-4 people at the same time.

The Republicans haven’t had anything like it.

7) She brings even more contributors.

8) She creates a very difficult problem for McCain. If the Republicans nominate two white males the juxtaposition is going to be telling. African Americans, Hispanics, Women all are going to be highly motivated to say, you guys have had your turn.

Who is McCain going to appoint to counter that? If he picks a minority or a Republican woman then it is going to smack of symbolic and not substantive choice. Hillary Clinton isn’t the woman candidate, she is the candidate who happens to be a woman.

9) She brings Bill as a campaigner. Used in the right situations, small towns and in the south he can be very effective, especially when he isn’t emotionally tied to it.

10) She can help Obama be even better prepared for Day One. The fact is that we have seen Obama improve with this campaign. He has a terrific learning curve. The huge minutiae associated with running the government requires experience, which he will hire. Senator Clinton and her husband will have a significant contribution to offer.



Summary:

If Hillary Clinton’s speech on May 20th is a concession speech and it extols the many attributes of the next president of the United States, it would indicate that consideration is being given to Senator Clinton as Vice President. Today Senator Clinton indicated that the two campaigns are in daily conversation.

For many of us this is going to take some time for us to consider in a rational unemotional way. Many of us, myself included have alluded to the feeling that if she is on the ticket we might not support it. Well we all know that is just not true. We got our candidate for President. We won. And now we have to start communicating like we are victors and not as if we are still in the trenches.

There are, I am sure, many ways to criticize the points above. I will probably agree with many of them.

However how we treat the question of how we consider Hillary as a Vice Presidential candidate will have an impact on how the Clinton supporters react to Senator Obama as the Presidential candidate, and how they act in DU.

Therefore it would be very considerate to the Clinton supporters in DU to agree or disagree in a polite dispassionate way. If you want Clinton supporters to help heal the party and rebuild a united front to the McCain apostasy known as BUSH III then some restraint would be a strategic advantage

Of course calling the writer of the OP a dickhead or anything else would be completely understood, entirely accurate and would in fact delight many Clinton supporters as well.

Senator Obama has officially started the real General Election campaign today



I) A CAMPAIGN LIKE NO OTHER

The strangest threads on DU are the ones that project what is going to happen in the fall. It is premised on the idea that having nearly concluded the most unusual , radically different and historical primary campaign in American history that we can extrapolate anything from the past.

All of those who realistically expected Barack Obama to garner 1.5 million contributors before he had the nomination in hand line up over here – exactly none.

If you don’t understand exactly how wonderfully different this campaign is then look at this video for one minute.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fwJEWLUv8

The point – are we going to ‘win’ Idaho? (and all of the other traditional Republican states) – don’t know and unlikely. But as of today we have more volunteers, could raise more money than Senator McCain. If Senator McCain does not go to Idaho and work in Idaho he will lose Idaho and all of those other states like Idaho. McCain has to work hard just to catch up to Obama in his own ‘safe’ states.



II) LETS LEAVE ALL OF THESE ‘OBAMA HAS TO DO THIS IN THE FALL’ TO PAT BUCHANAN

They are all idiotic for the reasons stated above and no one does stupid like Pat Buchanan.

He’s a professional at stupid and we are only amateurs.

It’s not a fair competition.

He will win the stupid contest every time.






III) OBAMA DOESN’T FIGHT FAIR HE CHEATS (BY THE RULES)

Lets say you and a bunch of friends agree to a game of touch football. Each side has 6 players and are evenly matched. A few more players show up but instead of dividing them evenly you add them to your side. That is what is happening.

In the past Obama has avoided close contests. The reasons is that he goes out and gets more players and changes the landscape to his advantage.

Why did I change to Obama? This one paragraph (sent by well known fence sitter FrenchieCat) had more impact on me than any of the speeches he ever gave

Its from 1993

A huge black turnout in November 1992 altered Chicago's electoral landscape-and raised a new political star: a 31-year-old lawyer named Barack Obama.
In the final, climactic buildup to November's general election, with George Bush gaining ground on Bill Clinton in Illinois and the once-unstoppable campaign of senatorial candidate Carol Moseley Braun embroiled in allegations about her mother's Medicare liability, one of the most important local stories managed to go virtually unreported: The number of new voter registrations before the election hit an all-time high. And the majority of those new voters were black. More than 150,000 new African-American voters were added to the city's rolls. In fact, for the first time in Chicago's history-including the heyday of Harold Washington-voter registrations in the 19 predominantly black wards outnumbered those in the city's 19 predominantly white ethnic wards, 676,000 to 526,000.
http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine... /

People if we had done in the rest of the country what Obama did in Chicago there would have never been an Iraqi war. George Bush would be completely unknown.




IV) BARACK ‘ISN’T TOUGH ENOUGH’ ETC ETC FOR THE GE.

Just so silly. If you have the country roughly divided 40% to 40% and the two parties divided competing for the 20% which has been split almost exactly down the middle what do you do? – go out and get another 10-20% on your side, fight like hell for the 20% in the middle, and make a reasonable appeal for the 40% on the other side.

Close election – well if you think a 40 state win is close then this is going to be a close election. While McCain is playing checkers Obama is playing Chess, with a Russian adviser, and a computer program, with a marching band playing around McCain.

Senator Obama just defeated the most organized, toughest, hard fighting, smartest Democratic machine in modern history. A machine that embarrassed the Republicans twice.




V) OBAMA LAUNCHES ITS SECRET WEAPON
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/p...

Today is the official kickoff of Vote for Change, an unprecedented 50-state voter registration and mobilization drive. In over 100 cities across America, from Anchorage, Alaska to Miami, Florida, grassroots supporters will hit the streets to register voters. With events planned in every single state, no matter where you live, you can find an event near you.
As Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas explained,"This could change the face of American politics for decades to come."
Our efforts across the country have already yielded incredible results. According to a recent Associated Press survey, over 3.5 million people registered to vote in the first three months of 2008. Now we're expanding our approach to every single state, as part of a sustained, six-month effort that could reshape the electoral map.
Most events will begin in the late morning or early afternoon, and will run approximately four hours. No prior experience is necessary, and materials and training will be provided at each location.

There is no better way to start your weekend, and no more important work to be done right now than bringing more voters, and more voices, into the political process. Click on a state below to find an event near you:




VI) WHAT HAVE THEY DONE SO FAR
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vfc...

On May 10th, Barack Obama is launching Vote for Change, an unprecedented 50-state voter registration and mobilization drive. More than 100 events will be held across the country that day. Obama volunteers will register new voters as the start of a six-month voter registration drive.

We can change Washington if more Americans get involved, get registered and show up to vote on November 4th. If millions of new voters get involved, a powerful message will be sent to the special interests that dominate the old politics. This is an important time to find more people in your community to register to vote. To attend a May 10th Vote for Change launch event in your area, click on your state above.

Recent voter registration drives have registered more than 200,000 new Democrats in Pennsylvania, more than 165,000 new Democrats in North Carolina, and more than 150,000 new Democrats in Indiana. Those numbers just scratch the surface of what's possible.




VII) THIS IS WHAT TERRIFIES RUSH LIMBAUGH AND THE REPUBILCAN PARTY

"This could change the face of American politics for decades to come," said Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, predicting permanent gains for her party

AND MORE

The numbers even seem to be benefiting Democrats in states that generally lean Republican. In Wyoming, where registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats by more than 2-to-1, Democratic registrations in the first three months of the year surpassed those for the GOP. Ditto in West Virginia, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina -- all states President George W. Bush won in 2004.
North Carolina officials expect a turnout of around 50% in today's primary election -- double the rate of past primaries. Almost half a million voters cast early ballots, more than half the number who voted in the state's 2004 primary overall.
In Indiana, which also votes today, a flood of recent voter applications slowed election systems to a crawl and forced some counties to keep staff working around the clock to process the backlog.
In April alone, Indiana election staffs processed 130,000 new or updated voter registrations.
"Those numbers completely obliterate any numbers from 2004," said Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita. For the primary, he said, "I've been pulling my staff in for war-game meetings, playing out every scenario."


This AP article was quoted by FREEP.COM (It was the link from the Obama page – I didn’t even know it existed by that name lol)

Here is the first comment:

As a penalty for Bush we may have to suffer through four years of socialist liberal idiocy. Then a reorganized conservative gang will come in and clean up the mess levelled upon America by these far left kooks.




VIII) SO HOW MANY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT ADDING TO THE PARTY?

Ten million?

Twenty million?

Thirty million?


Well we haven’t really started and Obama has already added 3.5 million.

It would be well to remember this number 1.5 million contributors.



IX) DON’T KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT THIS SUMMER I AM GOING TO REGISTERING VOTERS.

I live in California so there isn’t going to be a lot to do on his campaign here. But one of the country’s safest Republican seats (‘Duke Cunningham’ federal prisoner 78989929) can be in play.

San Diego Union Tribune

"Well, there's this 30-something named Nick Leibham, an attorney with some D.C. experience. No elective office. He's got some dough behind him. Trendy Web site (picknick08.com). Pro staff. Party, union endorsements. He's the primary winner, I'd guess."
"I'll make you a bet, Jack. Bilbray doesn't win by more than three points. That's the over-under."
http://www.picknick08.com/u-t-columnist-ha...



X) TO SIGN UP AND HELP CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE OF AMERICAN POLITICS FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS GO HERE

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vfc...


(will be reposting this in GDP a little bit later)

The International Brotherhood of Hard Working White Guys broke a 172 year tradition and endorsed a Democrat.

Meeting Summary

Gus Johnson Chairman; I would like to bring this meeting to order by calling on Butch Smith who has a media report.

Butch: I would like to play the excerpts from our leaders recent speeches. I found this on YouTube, it was a lot of hard work but my 9 year old finally helped me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi8zyp1je9Y

Thanks for your hard work Gus. Now Frank Morgan will you please bring in the refreshments.

Frank; this week I had my wife make Hickory BBQ chicken wings and home made Pecan Pie with home made crust.

Gus: Thanks for your hard work Frank. Now as you all know most politicians never give us white guys enough credit for working hard and everyone knows its our hard work that built this country. Our hard working President will soon be history and all of the fantastic members of this hard working team will be history.

Hillary Clinton understands how hard we work and is going to follow up with the fine example of our President. All of those who want to endorse Hillary Clinton for President raise your beer – shit MADGE MADGE bring in some more goddamn beer. OK everybody raise your beer. OK everybody agreed and thank you for your hard work.

She is going to come here and we have to show that we appreciate her hard work in supporting us in our hard work. Curt you sit home all day can you organize the signs?

Curt: No problem I’ll get Sanchez and her kids to do that they live in our back lot and they always have extra time on Sunday evenings.

Gus: Good. We need media who can call the media?

Arnie: No problem I’ll have Ruth do it tomorrow in between her shifts.

Gus: That should just about wrap it up, time to go bowling – thanks for your hard work.

Members in Unison: Thank you Gus for working hard!!

I. THE CAMPAIGN THAT REFUSED TO GROW

The stark reality which no Clinton supporter ever addresses is that exactly one year ago Senator Clinton entered the campaign with 38%. Before Iowa that number was 42%. Through all of this campaign Senator Clinton has not been able to move her numbers at all. She has flatlined for the entire race and is always hovering between 42-47%.

In a 3 (or 8) person race a 42% level of support is a commanding lead. In a 2 person race it is a loss.

This primary cycle has had two over arching themes: the ascendency of Senator Obama and the rejection of the Clinton brand for the future of the Democratic Party. She did not pick up any of the other candidates for Presidency and she didn't pick up any of their supporters.


II. HILLARY THE GREAT

And here is the supreme irony. She was good enough and she should have had it. A few times the real Hillary Clinton slippped through, and no the tearful wispy cry in New Hampshire was not one of them. I saw her on Nightline. Fantastic. No packaging no spin. A smart relaxed funny confident woman. The kind of woman I want my daughters to be.

But Hillary the Great was put away. The Clinton team knew better they had won it before (but actually they hadn't they had won the 3 candidate race before and never in fact had won a 2 party national election and sadly poor Ross Perot declined to run again) and resorted to the Selling of Senator Clinton, the 'New and Improved Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton'.

Had Hillary done what McCain had done and shucked the idiots that became her entourage and gone to town halls by herself and exhausted every question rather than planting them then she would be the nominee and the ticket would be Clinton/Obama. She is that good. But she would have had to walk into the den and made herself vulnerable and shown people she isn't the demon that she has been charachterized as. But she didn't.


III. SADLY THE TRUTH IS GOOD ENOUGH BUT IS NOT USED

And the whole sad affair can be boiled down to Bosnia snipers. The truth was good. The truth was fantastic. The truth proved her point that she has been around and knows where the problem areas were and because she saw how prudent and careful her husband had been that even in a war zone, a war zone that had not one single combat death, the first lady was safe enough not only to go but to take her daughter and get a poem right out on the tarmac - no need to worry or run from snipers.

But just as she feels that Hillary the Great is not good enough the story of First Lady safely arriving in a War Zone was not good enough. It raises the question why doesn't she just be herself and get rid of all of the packaging.


IV. THE PARTY DECLINES THE 'NEW AND IMPROVED' AND GOES ANOTHER PATH

The party has gone another path. It is not simply a different candidate it is a different strategy. The umbilical cord to the corporate universe has been severed and a mass base has been replaced. The plucky community organizer who added 400,000 Democrats to the polling rolls in Chicago has added 3 million in the primaries.

This summer they will add another 10 or 20 million people. That is where the real campaign is heading. One candidate will be doing undraisers and one will be changing the landscape with a completely new and reformed Democratic Party. Stronger and united.


V. SOME WHO LOVE HILLARY THE GREAT CAN'T UNDERSTAND THE REST OF US.

Some who fell in love with Hillary the Great and can't understand the rejection of 'New and Improved Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton' cling to her candidacy and insist she absolutely must be on the ticket. If we could undue the marketing and some how find Hillary the Great that would have been possible.

Some of these supporters are the best that the party has. Some have been longtime and substantial supporters and some are fantastic writers. The party is not going back. We could no more go back than Europe could have pretended that Columbus hadn't taken a trip somewhere. It's not that we found a messianic candidate its that Senator Obama has shown us the new world of the Democratic Party and we like it.


VI. HOPE THAT YOU WILL COME ALONG

Hopefully everyone will want to come.

Sadly some are too bitter to make the trip.

Maybe they will take some time and join latter.

The party is not however, going to accept their intransigence as the obstacle to unity. Its up to them. They are welcome to come aboard. We like them and admire them we want them to come.



To the Lovers of 'Hillary the Great':

I hope to see you in the new Democratic Party that is being formed.

Peace


By letting it go it all gets done.
The world is won by those who let it go.
But when you try and try.
The world is beyond the winning.
Lao Tzu

It's late at night and the janitor for the Central Methodist Church has left the lights on in the basement of the side coffee hall room. The shadows make it difficult to see but the room seems packed.


Moderator: "We have a new member go ahead"

"My name is grantcart and I am an addict I am addicted to snark."

Moderator: "How did it start?"

"I live in a bad area its an upscale area of San Diego and everyone is a Republican and drives Hummers and German cars. Everytime I park the car I have to snark before I fit my Honda in. Anyway its 'Duke' Cunningham's district and just out of survival I used to write him snarky letters and share them with friends. Then they threw his sorry ass into prison and I was more or less cut off".

Moderator: We understand Congress is a gateway snark. Cunningham was a major dealer.

"I had pretty much adjusted and then Cheney shot his friend in the face and didn't visit him in the hospital and like the whole country snarked it up. It was like MJ in the '60s or coke in the 80's everyone was emailing jokes and pictures."

Moderator: Yes the market value of snark collapsed it was everywhere for free.

"Yeah well I kept sending my friends snark mail and I noticed that they were sending me less and less. Campaign started and I would do just recreaional snarking. Mostly light stuff like Thompson shit or Guilliani shit but I had a couple weekends where I OD on some pristine Romney shit"

cliffordu "that Romney shit was the best shit around plentiful sweet aroma full of hypocrocy and completely pretenscious"

Moderator: Please cliffordu don't interupt.

"Well that import stuff always left a terrible after taste in my mouth - yeah it gave you a fix but then you had to see these repulsive guys going on and on they were snorting it up, and not snarking, like the believed that stuff so I cut it out and started just taking domestic snark. Little Gravel, some Kucinich but afterwards I felt guilty cause he's such a good guy. But it was harmless stuff just recreational post debate stuff. I thought I could handle it."

"Then Iowa and the quality of the snark just started to soar and I couldn't get enough - finally my friend told me to take it to DU and that was like having an alcoholic become a winetaster at Gallo. The Clinton campaign just went crazy they had all of these mainline sources and like every day there was Penn, Wolfson, Carville, McAuliffe and Davis. But I ended up having to mix it with alcohol it was too strong to take it straight up. But once you got em it would keep me going for hours or days. Sometimes I would be in my car at a light thinking about what one of those guys said and I would glance around and realize that all of the people in the neighboring cars would be staring at me because I had been shaking with laughter."

TheVoiceofReason, "Man you crazy to be taking that shit and snarking while driving you could have killed someone"

berni_mccoy: That Penn was pure shit, you take a straight shot of that, especially if it was a film clip and you could be wiped out for days, if you operated heavy machinery you could kill someone.

Moderator: Any other effects:

"Sometimes like 30 minutes after I got a Wolfson hit Ill be giggling and my family stares at me. Their Thai and speak English but they just stare at me. At night I talk about it in my sleep. A couple of months ago I had two weeks of it and my wife said I kept saying 'Wyoming - great win for Hillary', she moved to the guest bedroom but last night she said I was yelling '14 points for Indiana'. I had a dream about changing my sex and moving in with m*****j*** and snarking Obamians.

Moderator: Well why are you here?

"Well we all know that our main dealers are going to be shutting down and I wanted to be prepared for it, afraid of going cold turkey."

(the whole room groans and shifts in its seat - musical phone signal "WAR what is it good for" starts)

Moderator: Turn off your cell phone please

"Sorry it was a text message"

"Clinton campaign just released a press release. Last night confirmed Senator Clinton's commanding hold on the nation's most important demographic 'people who have basements'. People who have basements experience the fullness of America. They play ping pong. They play pool. They have work benches where they make diaramas. They have cub scout meetings. It was people who have basements that won the Big War. They don't have a lot of basements in elitist places like San Francisco or Illinois.

Moderator: Oh Mr. Grantcart stop please stop now you have the whole room snarking

phrigndumass: I got it too 72% of baement owners favored Clinton as well as 63% of people who not only knew what a hula hoop was
but still owned one. Also 73% of the people that did not own a fondue pot went for Clinton.

Moderator: All of you please leave. (everyone shuffles out of the room)

TheVoiceofReason: "Gonna miss Wolfson and McAuliffe when their history. You can't make that shit up - we will never see that again"

Cliffordu: "Not a problem I have been looking at the imported stuff and McCain has the strongest shit yet. He goes back and forth on everything calls his wife pretty names and keeps saying 'My Friends' right before he lays a big fat turd on you:

pringndumass: "Well that will take us to Nov 4th and then we will be officially 'shit out of luck'"

"No way man I got us a back up - my main dealer he's going inside man. This guy has been dealing since the 70s he will find it and he will pass it to us for years man"

Everyone: Who

"His code name is Senator, Senator Franken.

On MSNBC with Andre Mitchell

He was talking about winning the vast rural areas and said quoting exactly "last night we won 90% of the territory"


Terry McCauliffe "last night we won 90% of the territory"
So now the new metric is ----- dirt


Now Alaska is more important that New York.


Would somebody with graphic capabilities do a map of the US and show the Clinton campaign that the Obama campaign has indeed won more dirt.

More votes
More delegates
More primaries
More caucuses
More donors
More money
More Governors endorsing
More Senators endorsing
More Reps endorsing

but if you want to get us really angry just don't go there because god dammit WE GOT MORE DIRT.

I) The so called 'Nuclear Option' hysteria continues unabated despite the fact that it makes no sense.

Background: One guy without sources made a stinking pile of dung alleging Clinton is about to launch a coup on the DNC Rules Committee.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/c...

The people on the rules committee have been in leadership roles for years in the party and love the party more than either candidate that they may now support. The people promoting this could not name a single person on the committee they think would support it.

Even the author of this crap states that the plan is contingent of the following

quote
For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.
unquote

Beyond that it isn't with the rules committee. Credential challenges would go to the credential committee and then to the floor of the convention. There is no 'nuclear option' that gives Hillary MI and FL without a floor fight.

Today Hillary confirmed again that it will be decided before the convention.

Just because the HuffingtonPost wants to sensationalize and stir up the hornets nest does not mean that we have to follow such claptrap.



II) Add on Super Delegates favor Obama. There are a total of 76 Super Delegates that are being chosen as per schedule to fill the last open super delegate spots.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ad...

So far 13 Add on SDs have announced for Obama and 9 for Clinton 7 undeclared.

Of the 47 SDs not yet selected 27 come from caucus and primary states that Obama took by overwhelming margins and 9 that Clinton took. There are 11 from large states that Clinton took (CA 5 TX 3 PA 3) that might split some of their SDs for state pary unity.




III) Pelosi Club Super Delegates 6 undeclared and 1 Clinton




IV) Assuming that Obama will maintain a 135 delegate lead (135 today) and will maintain that number through the primaries Senator Clinton will have to make up 135 delegates with 135 net SDs.

Total SDs left 272

minus Obama add ons/pelosi Delegates 34


Leaves 225 super delegates left and she has to net 169 (135 Obama delegate lead + 34 'highly likely known additional Obama SDs)


Hillary will have to get 169 + 28 = 197 (225 - 169 = 56/2 = 28). 197/225 = 87%



Therefore If Obama maintains 135 delegate lead and if Obama picks up 34 SDs from the add ons from his states and the Pelosi club the Senator Clinton would have to gross 197 Super Delegates of the remaining 225 unannounced Super Delegates - 87%


This is why I believe a quick end is imminent.

Besides the fact that tomorrow the field will be reduced by 180 delegates and Hillary will still have to make up the same 140 delegate deficit is the question about money. The fact that the Clintons have gone quiet about a metric they normally boast about when they have good news is an indicator. The use of the 527 to buy candidate ads in Indiana is another. The change from strident anti-Obama to pandering is another indicator.

But the real reason is unlike us they are talking with the super delegates. They know that the super delegates are not there. The Clintons are not stupid and they will not prolong a futile campaign. They will know tomorrow the number one question that they will be facing is "Is Hillary dropping out?".

They may decide to wait until West Virginia to go out on a big victory but after that she is looking at three more losses in OR, MT and SD.

Over the last week Senator Clinton has dropped all of the incindiary rhetoric that has been apart of her attack on Obama since Super Tuesday.

Gone are the wink and nods, nothing about 'our people' and 'our issues'.

Gone is the guilt by association, Rev. Wright, Ayers and Rezko.

Gone is the baiting about 'refusing to debate'.

Gone is the attack on Obama the elitist.

Gone is the be afraid tact (3:00 call and undermining the commander in chief status).

Gone are the stump speech references to Florida and Michigan.

Gone are the references that frame Obama as primarily an African American candidate.

Bill Clinton is behaving.

The surogates have gone to the beach.

(The threads in reference to the 'nuclear option' are in reference to an article by Edsall at Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/c... I find his argument entirely unconvincing. To begin with his facts are wrong. Inclusion of the delegations are not going to be decided by the rules committee. Ultimately it will be decided by the credentials committee at the convention and be submitted to a vote to the floor of the convention if necessary. After publishing an incindiary post the Clinton campaign comes back and says http://facts.hillaryhub.com/archive/?id=74... we haven't changed anything and the Rules committee is filled with long long time senior officials to the party who may support a candidate but are very indipendent. Edsall then turns this around and says it confirms a 'secret plan' ridiculous. If they wanted to turn up the heat they would be making a lot of statements on the stump.)



She has replaced all of this with:



Pandering to Guam and Gas Tax Holliday. She is stressing a poplulist messages.



These are issues that are not going to hurt Obama in the General Election.

MOREOVER BY TAKING MCCAINS GAS TAX HOLLIDAY PROPOSAL CLINTON, FOR THE FIRST TIME, IS HELPING OBAMA START HIS GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN AGAINST MCCAIN.




Senator Clinton,

The rest of the electorate doesn't get it. The media won't get it until Rev. Wright speaks about it.

We get it Senator. You are doing one of two things

Either you are preparing to end your campaign http://www.democraticunderground.com/discu...

or you are committed to continue but only by using issues that will not hurt us in the General Election.

Thank you.

Fellow Democrats




If you get it and appreciate Senator Clinton going to the high ground now give it a rec to say thank you.

Five Indicators that Point to Clinton preparing to Stop Her Campaign after NC/IN

1) Continuing Financial Problems

The Clintons were boasting about the huge bounce in fund raising after PA, including $ 10 million in one day. And yet at the end of the month there has been no announcement. If she had in fact taken in more than $ 20 million then you would expect her to boast about it. No announcement and no rumors.



2) Unable to buy enough ads.

Unable to buy enough ads the campaign has thrown away the law book and made an obvious end around the rules to use money from maxed out donors.

Details here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discu...



3) Change of Message – Stopped using messages that are GE divisive issues

The Clinton campaign has changed radically their message recently and have stopped using the issues that are most damaging to the party in the General Election. She has stopped referring to FL and MI delegates with the incendiary language they used before.

They have stopped even talking about the ‘popular vote’. They know now that they are not going to have any significant advantage in the popular vote.

They no longer refer to issues aimed at damaging Obama. They are running on pure pandering issues – Guam voting in presidential elections (requiring a constitutional amendment) and the silly “Gas Tax Holliday”. If they were going to launch a devistating last minute attack it would be out already.

She is now going out of her way stating that she will be ‘working her heart out’ in November.



4) Change of use of surrogates.

Nothing would be more embarrassing than to send out your ‘mad dog’ surrogates and then stop the campaign the next day. Over the last week the number and use of surrogates has changed and their tone is different. When Clinton’s own DNC Chair changed support from Clinton to Obama – no ‘Judas’ no attack.



5) An indication that they can count.

On Friday the Clinton campaign had their biggest SD day in the campaign. They picked up 4 Super Delegates. There was no press conferences no public appearances nothing. This is not a sign of a campaign that believes things are getting better.


And then there is this video of James Carville that basically admits that, barring Obama taking himself out of the campaign Hillary cannot win:


http://youtube.com/watch?v=4ACAOYv3DKk


This is not to say that the Clinton campaign has made a decision to stop on Tuesday. It does indicate that if the results do not bring in a substantial win for Hillary that they have layed the foundation for limiting damage and trying to leave on top. Perhaps a speech has been prepared for Tuesday.

THE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PROJECT - CLINTON'S CLOSEST FRIENDS JOIN TO FORM AN 'INDEPENDENT 527'

The pro Clinton 527, The American Leadership Project was formed to subvert campaign financing laws and allow those donors who are maxed out to contribute unlimited amounts outside of the campaign. Average size of contributions to the ALP $ 100,000 per person.

527s cannot be candidate driven - they have to be issue driven:

Under federal election laws, political action committees, including ones operated by unions, may contribute a maximum of $5,000 per election to a candidate. But independent groups – called 527s for the IRS code they fall under – have no limits on donations. They may not advocate voting for or against a candidate and may not coordinate their activities with candidates’ campaigns.



MOTHER (HEAD OF CAMPAIGN) AND SON (HEAD OF 527) - BUT FORTUNATELY FOR THE LAW THEY NEVER TALK POLITICS


The APL was formed by Jason Kinney. He is the son of Clinton's state co-chair
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll...
quote

The Obama camp also raised questions about the group's independence, singling out Jason Kinney, an Indiana native and one of the group's organizers who is the son of Vi Simpson, Clinton's state co-chair. The law prohibits outside groups from coordinating their work with political campaigns.

"Since I've started with the American Leadership Project, we have essentially never discussed the campaign," Kinney said of conversations with his mother.

unquote


IS THIS AD ABOUT AN ISSUE OR A CANDIDATE?


Here is a link in the ad

You can decide if it is candidate oriented or issue oriented (defeating Obama is not an issue)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vswsSLdZ86o



THE FEC LIKE THE IRAQI PARLIMENT JUST DOESN'T FEEL LIKE DOING ITS JOB RIGHT NOW - ASK US NEXT YEAR


The reason that they can do this with impunity is that
http://www.bulletpointjournal.com/2008/05/...

quote

The FEC does not currently have a quorum so they cannot act on any investigation or regulatory matter.
Even if they could the AP reports that "FEC investigations typically take more than a year to resolve."

unquote



IF CLINTON IS RAISING 10 MILLION IN ONE DAY WHY DOES SHE NEED A 527 TO FLOOD INDIANA ILLEGALLY?



TPM reports that it is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in Indiana in a desperate last minute attempt to save Clinton's campaign
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmem...



The American Leadership Project -- the 527 put together by big Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- sank another $200,000 today into the ad they're running in Indiana attacking Obama on the economy, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney just confirmed to me.

That brings the total spent on the ad to $1.1 million, Kinney says.

The initial buy on the ad was $700,000. The group dumped another $220,000 into the buy yesterday, and added the $200,000 more today.

Kinney says today's spending was designed to beef up the ad's rotation in the Indianapolis market.

The massive total expenditure -- by far the group's biggest buy yet -- underscores yet again the extent to which Hillary allies view Indiana as an absolute must-win.




NO LONGER A DOUBLE STANDARD

The question of applying a double standard to Obama has long been obvious in this campaign.

Now it is a question of Obama having to play to a very high standard compared to a campaign that has no standard at all.

Ode to a great snarker

pointed but not hostile

brief but penetrating

searing but not personal

relevent but not tedious

self mocking but not depressing

How I look forward to your snarks. And yet you never seem to snark my threads Maddiejoan, have I insulted you?

Your snarks smack leave a mark like the hand print on a pristine bottom during erotic foreplay.

They are always clever but not boastful.

You are the snarkmaster and I bow to your snarkiness.

When your candidate's tepid and dying campaign has experienced the last twinge of electro pulse through the nervous system and we have a formal presumptive nominee will your snarks be endangered will they be gone forever?

Will we be left only with the memory of the perfect snark?


Oh by the way nice snark

MEMO: TO THE NEW BOSSES OF THE PARTY – WE ARE GOING TO NEED A BIGGER BUS.


A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE

When the contemporaries opened their newspapers and read about the ‘Missouri Compromise’ they probably thought that a great conflict was avoided. They didn’t realize that the conflict had been in fact narrowed and that the state of Kansas would run deep in blood and the divisions of the country cemented making conflict inevitable.

Those passengers on that bus had no idea that Rosa Parks’ tired legs and stern constitution was going to ignite the moral outrage of a community, the thrusting of leadership to a young pastor and a great social revolution.

CHANGE OF OWNERSHIP

We are on such a bus now.

This is not just a generational change of leadership in the party. It is not even an ideological one.

It is a change of ownership. The bosses that juice this campaign wouldn’t fit into a smoke filled room. They wouldn’t fit into a stadium. They would overflow the State of Rhode Island.

Next week some lucky American citizen will become the 1,500,000th boss of this campaign. It is a campaign that has way out raised its budget and people still line up to give a little bit more.

And so the bosses are not giving up until we reach 2024. Fine. I checked with the other 1,499,999 of us and we can wait.

A CONFUCIAN PARADIGM

Our new bus driver keeps talking about change and everybody thinks he is talking about Bush but he actually is talking about everyone including us. First we change and then we move it up the scale – change from the bottom. Very Confucius. Change your home and you change your community, change your community and you change your state, change your state and you change the nation, change your nation and you change the world.

And he actually says it if you listen carefully.

And while we are counting our delegates and trading our barbs and conducting micro surgery on what such and such’s surrogate said while having his cat neutered about the need for changes in the national weather administration the driver on the bus is taking us down a new road.

A NEW REALITY HAS ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED

The corporate ownership of the greatest democratic political party in the world has ended.

If it was necessary and I mean absolutely necessary for us to raise ONE BILLION DOLLARS (apologies to doctor evil) we could do it in ten days. We could.

Really the funniest moment in the whole campaign is when a bunch of former bosses wrote a letter protesting Speaker Pelosi’s desire to have the nomination go to the winner of the most elected pledged delegates according to the rules, and they threatened with their pocket book. That was just embarrassing.

OBAMA KEEPS SAYING THAT WE ALSO HAVE TO CHANGE

Now that we are the bosses and we own this party we have to begin to prepare ourselves for a General Election campaign and for Taking Control of the Government.

He has given a couple of examples of what is different in this bus.

One) Use Legislation to legislate and not for posturing and political stalemate.

He says that we have to avoid ‘poison pill legislation’. Legislation that a large majority of the country wants but one party puts something objectionable in it causing it to be defeated allowing the party to go back to its base and get more support while bashing the opponents in the media and never intending to pass anything.

The Republicans do it by not making an exception for the health of the mother for late term abortions. I suspect that we do it on Social Security. We could negotiate a good deal (not perfect but good) but would rather smash the other side over the head in the press and make the base angry. Our old leaders never wanted this one to be solved.
Too many easy headlines, too many easy slogans, too many easy points

Two) He says that we will actually have to listen to each other, including Republicans. Actually listen and not jump to impugn their motivations immediately when they say something. He says if we listen to them they will start listening to us.

Well this is going to be an interesting challenge for DU to say the least.

THE PREDICTABLE: NOT TOUGH ENOUGH AND NOT PURE ENOUGH, ALREADY STARTED.

Obama doesn’t have the nomination yet and there are already threads that he isn’t tough enough for the Republicans (confusing entirely the difference between having a family argument with a fellow Democrat and a no holds barred fight with the third Bush term).

He hasn’t been sworn in yet and there are plenty of folks who say that they are entirely unhappy about his overly moderate tact on policy (while ironically the Republicans will be framing him as the most liberal Senator in history).

WELL I DON’T LIKE THIS CHANGE BUSINESS

This change business don’t like it, never have. Hate it when somebody wants me to get out of my comfort zone and try to do something differently. Try another approach.

But given the fact that he was able to take control of the party away from the old entrenched bosses, given the fact that corporate America – even the good ones – no longer are underwriting our Presidential candidacy – I am willing to listen to this guy and if he wants me to change well I will try it.

If he can get 1,500,000 new bosses lined up to push out corporate ownership, if he can push out the old powerful dynasty, if he can get 10 million or maybe 20 million new voters registered this summer – and I think that is what his next plan is – then I am willing to let him have the benefit of the doubt.

If he is able to do this then I will see about the changes he wants me to look at, after all I have waited forty years for this bus and I’ll be damned if I am going to miss this bus ride.

Oh and remember the new bus driver’s #1 rule:

NO THROWING ANYONE UNDER THE BUS.