I) The so called 'Nuclear Option' hysteria continues unabated despite the fact that it makes no sense.

Background: One guy without sources made a stinking pile of dung alleging Clinton is about to launch a coup on the DNC Rules Committee.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/c...

The people on the rules committee have been in leadership roles for years in the party and love the party more than either candidate that they may now support. The people promoting this could not name a single person on the committee they think would support it.

Even the author of this crap states that the plan is contingent of the following

quote
For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.
unquote

Beyond that it isn't with the rules committee. Credential challenges would go to the credential committee and then to the floor of the convention. There is no 'nuclear option' that gives Hillary MI and FL without a floor fight.

Today Hillary confirmed again that it will be decided before the convention.

Just because the HuffingtonPost wants to sensationalize and stir up the hornets nest does not mean that we have to follow such claptrap.



II) Add on Super Delegates favor Obama. There are a total of 76 Super Delegates that are being chosen as per schedule to fill the last open super delegate spots.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ad...

So far 13 Add on SDs have announced for Obama and 9 for Clinton 7 undeclared.

Of the 47 SDs not yet selected 27 come from caucus and primary states that Obama took by overwhelming margins and 9 that Clinton took. There are 11 from large states that Clinton took (CA 5 TX 3 PA 3) that might split some of their SDs for state pary unity.




III) Pelosi Club Super Delegates 6 undeclared and 1 Clinton




IV) Assuming that Obama will maintain a 135 delegate lead (135 today) and will maintain that number through the primaries Senator Clinton will have to make up 135 delegates with 135 net SDs.

Total SDs left 272

minus Obama add ons/pelosi Delegates 34


Leaves 225 super delegates left and she has to net 169 (135 Obama delegate lead + 34 'highly likely known additional Obama SDs)


Hillary will have to get 169 + 28 = 197 (225 - 169 = 56/2 = 28). 197/225 = 87%



Therefore If Obama maintains 135 delegate lead and if Obama picks up 34 SDs from the add ons from his states and the Pelosi club the Senator Clinton would have to gross 197 Super Delegates of the remaining 225 unannounced Super Delegates - 87%


This is why I believe a quick end is imminent.