Intrade: Clinton shares collapse – Democrats pick up 5 Rep Senate Seats
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contrac...
I) PRESIDENTIAL MARKETS

Using the principle of the “the wisdom of crowds” markets selling shares on political futures have been amongst the most accurate predictors of outcomes of political races. The price for Dems winning the White House 62, while Obama leads McCain 56 to 38.

Clinton’s shares on Intrade fell sharply over the last week. McCain and Obama have virtually the same price (95 versus 90)

Obama’s shares now top 90 while Clinton’s shares fell from 22 on May 6th to 8 on May 12th (At the same time this thread centered on the presumptive nature of the race http://journals.democraticunderground.com/... )



To give an idea of how the Clinton campaign rates on the market compare it to other long shots that are trading at similar odds:

Bird Flu will be found in the US this year 26.0

Lunar X Prize by 2012 (Private company lands on the moon) 20.2

Spitzer will be indicted 17.5

Hillary Clinton will be nominated for President 8.5

Bin Laden captured by 9/30 8.2

McCain will not be the Republican nominee 5.9

II) VICE PRESIDENTIAL MARKETS

Democrats
Clinton 15
Webb 11.5
Gore 10.7
Richardson 8.0
Warner/Strickland 5.0
Edwards 4.5
Clark 3.5
Biden 3.2
Obama 3.1

Republicans
Pawlenty 18
Romney 16.6
Huckabee 10
Giuliani 8.5
Hutchinson/Rice 4.9

III) Democrats favored to maintain control

House 96
Senate 92

IV) Senate Contests

Most contests were in the 90s but the few exceptions

Dem leads in seats now held by Republicans

Colorado 54

Minnesota 52

New Hampshire 72

New Mexico 80

Virginia 80

Republican lead in seats now held by Democrats

None

Tied

Louisiana 50


So sometimes you wonder if we are just talking to ourselves and have we missed something that the rest of the world sees or are more 'enlightened' views disconnected with reality?

Taking an occasional glimpse at Intrade shows that a lot of people who are actually investing money share our reading of the political realities. This is going to be a helpful reality check when the results of West Virginia comes in and all of those talking heads start babbling away about how Obama has to do this or that. According to all of those capitalists who are risking actual money Obama has the inside track to the White House by quite a bit.