Gene Lyons most recent Obama-bashing column asked a good question. What states can Obama win that Kerry lost? In order to win, Obama needs to win more states than Kerry, so what states have been competetive and might tip to Obama? So I looked up the swing states and made the following tables.

States Republicans won by small margins

state - victory margin - (margin 2000) - N(Nader vote)-> theoretical 2000 margin)
Iowa - .67 (-.31) - N(1.63) -> (-1.94)
New Mexico - .79 (-.06) - N(3.55) -> (-3.61)
Ohio - 2.11 (3.51) - N(2.5) -> (1.01)
Nevada - 2.59 (3.55) - N(2.46) -> (1.09)
Colorado - 4.67 (8.36) - N(5.25) -> (3.11)
Florida - 5.01 (.01) - N(1.63) -> (-1.62)
Missouri - 7.20 (3.34) - N(1.63) -> (1.71)
Virginia - 8.20 (8.04) - N(2.17) -> (5.87)

states that were close in 2000, but not in 2004

state-margin 2000 - (margin 2004) - N(Nader vote)-> theoretical margin)
Arkansas - 5.44 (9.76) - N(1.46) -> (3.98)
Arizona - 6.28 (10.47) - N(2.98) -> (3.3)
WVa - 6.32 (12.86) - N(1.65) -> (4.67)
Louisiana - 7.68 (14.51) - N(1.16) -> (6.52)

States Democrats won by small margins in 2004

Wisconsin - .38 (.22) - N(3.62) -> (3.84)
New Hampshire - 1.37 (-1.27) - N(3.9) -> (2.63)
Pennsylvania - 2.50 (4.17) - N(2.10) -> (6.27)
Michigan - 3.42 (5.13) - N(1.99) -> (7.12)
Minnesota - 3.48 (2.40) - N(5.2) -> (7.60)
Oregon - 4.16 (.44) - N(5.04) -> (5.48)
New Jersey - 6.68 (15.83) - N(2.97) -> (18.8)
Washington - 7.18 (5.58) - N(4.14) -> (9.72)

small margin in 2000

Maine - 5.11 (9.00) - N(5.70) -> (10.81)
Tennessee - 3.86 (14.27) - N(.95) -> (2.91)

First, it is scary/sad to see both Florida and Michigan on that list. Hillary needs to stop trying to stir them up for her own advantage and the credentials committee needs to placate them somehow. It is interesting that Gore, a southerner, made Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia close while Kerry/Edwards did not. Arizona was close in 2000, I believe, because a percentage of Arizona votes were not happy with the way Bush treated McCain in the primaries. Arizona is not in contention in 2008.

Gore seems to have done better in all of the swing states and that, to me, speaks of the popularity of Clinton even if he does enrage conservatives. Richardson would seem to be a logical choice as well. Not only for his experience, but also to possibly tip New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. The other difficulty is also keeping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota in our column.

Senate races might be another factor, with Minnesota being one that we should be able to pick up. Although it is also interesting to see that Minnesota and Wisconsin are not as progressive as I previously thought.