Very interesting analysis from TruthDig and DailyKos that shows how the all-important "swing voter" is not actually a moderate-centrist who yearns for deficit reduction and "pragmatic" non-ideological candidates. Rather, the swing voter is a disaffected partisan who just hasn't seen anything worth voting for in a while. This is bad news for Obama's reelection, as he's been running to the right just as fast as he can since the party's "shellacking" in 2010. Only, if you remember, the Dems who received the drubbing were the middle-of-the-road Third Way'ers. In 2010, solid liberals did fine as a whole.

According to this analysis, if the party wants to win in 2012, they need to start playing to win right now with the phony deficit negotiations. Stand firm for Democratic programs and fight for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid as if your job depends on it...because it does.



http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/ite...

STUDY: TO WIN VOTES, MOTIVATE YOUR BASE

Numbers from a recent Pew Research Center study contradict the conventional thinking on independent voters. Independents are not moderates who can be swayed to the right or left with appeals to moderation and centrism, but “disaffected political partisans” (in the words of the Daily Kos), rebels unhappy with the politicians and parties they feel have betrayed the issues they care about most.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/17/9...


Independent voters are actually closet partisans

Pew Research Center released a study of independent voters last (May) that may help refute the Washington conventional wisdom. That conventional wisdom, roughly states that independent voters are middle of the road moderates who don’t support either party but swing their votes to and fro depending on what is important to them. They are fiscal conservatives who want a balanced budget. They are pragmatic centrists who want bipartisan solutions to every problem. They don’t like partisan bickering or political fighting. What they want is a harmonious, fiscally prudent government that doesn’t do too much or too little. Sort of a walking army of Midwestern Lutheran insurance actuaries.

The conventional wisdom on independents is, naturally, completely wrong. Independents are not a monolithic group of moderates. In fact, they are very diverse in their political opinions and there isn’t a “move to the middle” formula that will win them over. Moderates, in fact, are now overwhelmingly Democrats. Independents are, for the most part, disaffected political partisans.

... It is highly unlikely that folks who lean toward either party, and remember the vast majority of independents lean, are going to swing their votes to and fro between the parties. What is likely, however, is that many independents may not be as motivated to vote as strong or weak partisans. To solve this problem, the parties need to motivate them to vote. Since the matrix of issues that motivate independents will more or less coincide with those issues that motivate party partisans, political strategists should do something counter-intuitive to the conventional wisdom: To win independents, motivate your base.

Pew studied folks identified as Solid Liberals, whom you could also call "strong partisan Democrats," albeit 24 percent of this group identify themselves as independents who lean Democrat. There was no drop in turnout among this group in 2010. Where there was significant drop, however, is what Pew calls the "New Coalition" Dems (moderates & Dem leaners) and the Post-Moderns (youth). Of those "New Coalition" Dems, fully 42 percent of them identify as independents. We didn't lose in 2010 because we lost independents. We lost 2010 because our independent leaners and young folks didn't vote, while Republican leaning independents turned out in droves.

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Step back. Look at the big picture. We need to win independents in 2012. But don't make the mistake of believing that these are folks we need to "win back." We didn't lose them. They just didn't see anything worth making a trip to the voting both for. We need them to come back. What will motivate these guys to come back? The answers may surprise you:



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