Finally tonight as promised, a Special Comment on the passage, last week, of Proposition Eight in California, which rescinded the right of same-sex couples to marry, and tilted the balance on this issue, from coast to coast. Some parameters, as preface. This isn't about yelling, and this isn't about politics, and this isn't really just about Prop-8. And I don't have a personal investment in this: I'm not gay, I had to strain to think of one member of even my very extended family who is, I have...

(Image) FINAL RESULTS FOR 2008* (*As of November 8, 2008) Almost all of the results are in, and as projected, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the presidential election in a landslide! So, how did we do this year with all our projections? Overall, Obama performed better on average than our final projected spreads by state by a very tiny margin of 0.1%. We were high on some spreads and low on others, but on average we were right on the nose … not too liberal and not too conservative. We pro...

I am proud to live in a country that is making great strides in creating an atmosphere of equality for all, a country where true democracy is still within reach and bigotry can be overcome with education, diligence and time. President-Elect Barack Obama’s message of hope and inclusion for all this year made us proud! And I am so proud to have cast my vote this year for him and for all other Democrats on my ballot. We all won yesterday in a sense that change is possible and hope doesn’t go unn...

(Image) Here it is, hot off the presses: The final projections from The Daily Widget's forecasting model for Tuesday. President-Elect Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. Electoral Votes: Barack Obama - 378 John McCain - 160 Popular Vote: Barack Obama - 74.1 million (+9.8 million) John McCain - 64.3 million Third Party - 3.1 million Close races going to Obama: Florida (27) Indiana (11) Missouri (11) Ohio (20) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3) Close races goi...

(Image) THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, November 2, 2008 Contents: 1. Current Stats 2. Electoral Votes 3. Strength of Electoral Votes 4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004 5. Popular Vote 6. National Polls 7. Obama’s Seventeen 8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average 9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail) 10. Probabilities and Potentials 11. Sources and Links (Image) 1. Current Stats With only two days remaining until the election, John McCain is seeing a slight bump in ...

(Image) (Image) – Updated 11/1 – Updated 11/1 – Updated 11/1 1. ANALYSIS Forty-one state polls were released yesterday: 28 for swing states, 5 for blue states and 8 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for this set of polls is 24-14-3. Although 5 states change columns today, two of them tipping from blue to red, the movement was very small for these states and Obama still holds a 9.8 million vote lead in the popular vote count over John McCain. McCain gained about 400,000 votes sin...

() The 17 states where the Obama campaign has focused much of their time and resources this year are: Colorado (9) Florida (27) Georgia (15) Indiana (11) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Missouri (11) Montana (3) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) If all these states were packaged together into one very large state, it would have 196 electoral votes. The graph below shows how Barack Obama is perform...

(Image) () This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters. The overall Popu...

Below are the latest-reported total voters registered by state, and how it compares to 2004. This data is culled from each state's website for Secretary of State and/or Division of Elections. () Only 17 states so far have released a final official count of voter registration totals. A handful of states haven't updated their voter registration totals for public viewing since the primaries. These figures should all be released to the public in the next couple days. The number of registered...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Thirty-nine state polls were released yesterday: 24 for swing states, 6 for blue states and 9 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for this set of states is 27-11-1. The popular vote is tightening only a little bit, by 500,000 since yesterday, but Obama’s lead is still greater than 10 million over John McCain. McCain’s gains yesterday are nowhere near the 2 million per day he needs to maintain catch-up speed. That being so, McCain now needs to find more...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Thirty-one new state polls were released yesterday, and Barack Obama’s record for this set of polls is 26-5. Of the polls released, 23 are for swing states, 5 are for blue states, and 3 are for red states. Obama’s popular vote lead is still holding around 10.5 million over John McCain. The only state to switch columns today is New Hampshire, which is now polling on average with an Obama lead of +11.5. It moves from the Weak Obama to the Strong Obama colum...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Twenty-four new state polls were released yesterday, giving Barack Obama a record of 17-7 for the day. Eighteen of the states polled are swing states, 2 are blue states and 4 are red states. The most interesting of the bunch is the Insider Advantage poll for Georgia, showing Obama trailing by only one point. Mississippi is also tightening, as Rasmussen shows John McCain’s lead there dropping to single digits, moving it from the Strong McCain to the Weak Mc...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Thirty-two new state polls were released yesterday: 25 for swing states, 4 for blue states and 3 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for these polls is 25-5-2. And Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain continues to grow, up another 400,000 since yesterday. Obama now leads McCain by 10,824,459 likely votes with only seven days remaining until the election. McCain would need to earn 1,547,045 new votes every day between now and the election to catch...

With only eight days remaining until Election Day, John McCain is trailing Barack Obama by 10,425,652 likely votes nationwide. McCain would need to earn 1,303,206 votes every day between now and Election Day to catch up! So grantcart and I unveil to you, by popular demand, the all new Huckabee Index for the general election :D (Image) Do you have it in you, John McCain? :rofl: (Image) (Image) (Image)

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Forty-five state polls were released since Friday, and a common theme is beginning to reveal itself in the past week: As we approach Election Day, the number of Undecided voters is on the rise while the number of McCain supporters is dropping. At the same time, Barack Obama’s numbers are inching upward, now over 70 million votes. Voters who once supported John McCain are now giving Obama a second look. We can see proof of this in Arizona, of all places. ...

The 17 states where the Obama campaign has focused much of their time and resources this year are: Colorado (9) Florida (27) Georgia (15) Indiana (11) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Missouri (11) Montana (3) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) If all these states were packaged together into one very large state, it would have 196 electoral votes. The graph below shows how Barack Obama is performing o...

(Image) THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, October 26, 2008 Contents: 1. Current Stats 2. Electoral Votes 3. Strength of Electoral Votes 4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004 5. Popular Vote 6. National Polls 7. Obama’s Seventeen 8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average 9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail) 10. Probabilities and Potentials 11. Sources and Links (Image) 1. Current Stats With only nine days remaining until the election, John McCain is running strictly on Bar...

Below are the latest-reported total voters registered by state, and how it compares to 2004. This data is culled from each state's website for Secretary of State and/or Division of Elections. () Alaska, Florida, Kentucky and Nevada are the only states so far who have released a final official count. A handful of states haven't updated their voter registration totals for public viewing since the primaries. These figures will all be released to the public in the next few days. The number o...

(Image) () This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters. The overall Popu...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Twenty-seven new state polls were released yesterday, and although this was a lean-blue batch of polls, four red states move left today. Ohio had been hovering within the margin of error all year long, but two new polls conducted in the first half of this week now show Barack Obama leading John McCain in Ohio by greater than 10 points with less than two weeks remaining. Ohio moves from the Lean Obama to the Weak Obama column today, and is now polling on average ...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Twenty state polls were released yesterday, a lean-red batch of polls for the second day in a row. Ten of these polls were conducted in swing states, only 3 in blue states and 7 in red states. And for the second day in a row, John McCain loses a bit of ground. Did I mention that ? It’s no wonder why he’s spending time in red states. Speaking of red states, a new poll commissioned by the Argus Leader for South Dakota shows McCain’s lead there dropping to 7 poi...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Eighteen state polls were released yesterday: 8 for swing states, 3 for blue states and 7 for red states. And yet Barack Obama’s lead grows, even when the mix of states being polled leans to the right. Obama isn’t done winning over voters in red states. Take Indiana, for instance. Most polls this year conducted in Indiana have shown a McCain lead, sometimes a strong lead. Only four polls all year had shown Obama leading, two of which were conducted by the hi...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Seventeen state polls were released yesterday, 15 of them in swing states. But this time Barack Obama is trailing in four of them: Missouri, Florida, Georgia and Ohio. Two of these four polls were conducted by Foxmussen (Florida and Ohio). The good news is that John McCain is holding only a 2-point lead in Georgia, and two more polls released yesterday for Missouri and Ohio show Obama leading by 5 and 9 points, respectively. Although none of these states move...

Republicans have been caught driving up McCain's speculation chances of winning and driving down Obama's speculation chances of winning on Intrade and Rasmussen Markets. Between the close of the republican convention and up until late last week, a significant discrepancy was witnessed between share prices for McCain and Obama on Intrade and the same prices on other political speculation market sites such as BetFair and Iowa Electronic Markets. McCain's shares were trading at roughly 10 points ...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS I’m amazed at the polarizing of the electoral map right now. Thirty-eight states and DC are in one or the other candidate’s Strong column today, polling for one candidate by 10 points or greater over the other candidate. That leaves only 12 states still in play, 8 of which are currently leaning to Barack Obama. Only 6 of these states are within the margin of error, and 5 of those are tipping to Obama. Two new polls for Minnesota move that state into the Strong...

Below are the latest-reported total voters registered by state, and how it compares to 2004. This data is culled from each state's website for Secretary of State and/or Division of Elections. Alaska and Kentucky are the only two states so far who have released a final official count. A handful of states haven't updated their voter registration totals for public viewing since the primaries. These figures will all be released to the public in the next 10 days or so. The number of registered vo...

(Image) THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, October 19, 2008 Contents: 1. Current Stats 2. Electoral Votes 3. Strength of Electoral Votes 4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004 5. Popular Vote 6. National Polls 7. Obama’s Seventeen 8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average 9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail) 10. Probabilities and Potentials 11. Sources and Links (Image) 1. Current Stats With only 16 days remaining until the election, the economy remains the top issue affect...

(Image) () This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority vo...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Only six state polls were released yesterday, a brief break for the pollsters as they wait until after Wednesday night’s debate to gather more data. No states changed columns today. Rasmussen released a poll for Ohio showing the race there a tie, 49 for each candidate. Unlike other pollsters, with the exception of Rasmussen’s last Ohio poll, Rasmussen has always shown John McCain leading there this year. It is still a close race in Ohio, but Rasmussen showing ...

(Image) (Image) 1. ANALYSIS Apologies for the lateness of the Daily Widget today … We had no internet connection until 7:30 a.m. Central Time US. Eighteen state polls were released yesterday, and Obama is leading in 14 of them. We now have confirmation that West Virginia is currently in play, and two separate polls also confirm that New Mexico is no longer in play. On the edges of the pie chart, Kansas weakens for John McCain (+13) and Massachusetts goes long for Barack Obama (+26). Amer...