THE MATH – Monday Night, March 179:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)
Updates and additions today:
- Polls and the Magic Number
- Weighted Popular Vote (based on turnout-by-population)
- Updated pledged delegate and superdelegate totals
Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 –
82.5%********************************************
THE MAGIC NUMBERHere’s what we have
after considering the information in the Polls section below:
Obama’s Magic Number – 110.5 of 318 remaining superdelegates needed, or 34.7%
Clinton’s Magic Number – 226.5 of 318 remaining superdelegates needed, or 71.2%********************************************
TOTAL DELEGATESEstimated Total Delegates as of March 17:
Hillary Clinton – 1,504.5 (519.5 short)
Barack Obama – 1,640.5 (383.5 short)
Remaining Delegates – 884.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/17/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_th... SUPERDELEGATESSuperdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/17/08)
Barack Obama – 221 (Source: NBC 3/17/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 318
PLEDGED DELEGATESEstimated Pledged Delegates as of March 17:
Hillary Clinton – 1,249.5
Barack Obama – 1,419.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/17/08)
“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 17: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08, plus MS)
“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 17: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 159.5
Barack Obama – 312.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)
OVERALL CONTESTS WONHillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30
(Source: DailyKos 3/17/08)
PRIMARIES WONHillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16
CAUCUSES WONHillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14
BLUE AND RED STATES WONHillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)Status Quo as of March 17 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848
(Source: Wikipedia 3/17/08 plus states listed above)
Total weighted* popular vote as of March 17:
Barack Obama – 15,764,931
Hilary Clinton – 14,093,210*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes
Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 17 (includes WA):
Barack Obama – 13,173,496
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549
Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 17:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)
With Florida only added, as of March 17 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834
With Michigan only added, as of March 17
* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 17
* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)********************************************
SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLITHillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 237 of 318, or 74.4% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 249 of 332, or 74.8% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 226 of 332, or 68.1% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 244 of 330, or 73.8% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 242 of 320, or 75.5% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 229 of 320, or 71.6% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 236 of 332, or 71.1% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 234 of 330, or 70.8% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 239 of 332, or 71.8% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 101 of 318, or 31.6% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 123 of 332, or 36.9% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 212 of 332, or 63.9% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 114 of 330, or 34.4% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 110 of 320, or 34.2% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 135 of 320, or 42.2% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 148 of 332, or 44.6% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 178 of 330, or 53.8% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 187 of 332, or 56.2% of remaining SDs
Going 50/50 here on out, in Senator Clinton’s best case scenario, she would still need more than two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination.
On the other hand, Senator Obama’s superdelegate needs would be at a disadvantage ONLY if the Michigan delegation is seated as is, from the January results, in a 50/50 scenario. With the possibility of a new primary in Michigan on June 3, these disadvantages quickly disappear.
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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PRIMARY DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTONHillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 208 of 318, or 65.3% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Clinton needs 204 of 332, or 61.4% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 197 of 332, or 59.3% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Clinton needs 209 of 330, or 63.2% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 320, or 63.4% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Clinton needs 200 of 320, or 62.5% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Clinton needs 201 of 332, or 60.5% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 205 of 330, or 62.0% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Clinton needs 200 of 332, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 130 of 318, or 40.7% of remaining SDs
2. FL, MI new elections – Obama needs 167 of 332, or 50.3% of remaining SDs
3. FL, MI seated as is – Obama needs 241 of 332, or 72.6% of remaining SDs
4. FL not seated, MI new election – Obama needs 149 of 330, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
5. FL new election, MI not seated – Obama needs 148 of 320, or 46.3% of remaining SDs
6. FL seated as is, MI not seated – Obama needs 164 of 320, or 51.3% of remaining SDs
7. FL seated as is, MI new election – Obama needs 183 of 332, or 55.1% of remaining SDs
8. FL not seated, MI seated as is – Obama needs 207 of 330, or 62.6% of remaining SDs
9. FL new election, MI seated as is – Obama needs 225 of 332, or 67.8% of remaining SDs
Giving Senator Clinton a 55/45 edge in pledged delegates from here on out will still require her campaign to pick up about 60% or more of the remaining superdelegates IN EVERY SCENARIO.
The 55/45 disadvantage in pledged delegates from here on out for Senator Obama’s campaign would still put forth three scenarios where they would need less than half of the remaining superdelegates to clinch the nomination, and two more with almost even odds (Scenarios 2 and 6). If Michigan holds a new primary on June 3, we could remove the three scenarios with large disadvantages for Senator Obama, and arrive at a worst-case scenario of 55.1% (Scenario 7). Scenario 7’s impact would be reduced to about 50% if only half of the Florida delegation is seated.
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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATESThese are all the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.
If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,669.0 of 3,540.0, or
75.4%.
Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)
The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 65.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.0%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.3%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 55.1%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.9%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 62.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.8%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 61.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.7%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 61.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.3%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.5%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 58.5%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.5%, in all remaining contests
Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 56.4%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.6%, in all remaining contests
********************************************
THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIOLooking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 59.7% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. That’s considerably higher than the 55.1% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 59.7% in only one state during this primary season.
On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 40.3% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan, to maintain his lead over Senator Clinton in pledged delegates. Even though that’s higher than the 35.0% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.
Clinton’s wins over 59%: (1)
Arkansas – 70%
Obama’s wins over 59%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Mississippi – 61%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
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POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates.
Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.
Pennsylvania (April 22)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Clinton as +16.0%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20... Guam (May 3)
No Poll
Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls shows Senator Obama with +15.0%
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/india... North Carolina (May 6)
Real Clear Politics average has Senator Obama as +8.2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20... West Virginia (May 13)
Mark Blankenship Enterprises (as reported in the Charleston Daily Mail) shows Senator Clinton with +21.0%
http://www.dailymail.com/News/election08/2... Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll
Oregon (May 20)
Riley Research Polls have Senator Clinton as +8.0%
http://www.rileyresearch.com/polls/2008_1_... Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll
Montana (June 3)
Mason-Dixon shows Senator Clinton with +12.0%
http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/0... South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll
If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!
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MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGANThis is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.
Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:
"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along,
we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time.
The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”
Source:
http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_st... (emphasis mine)********************************************
BROKERED CONVENTIONFeel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.
Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_conv... ********************************************
OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTIONThe link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!
Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de... ********************************************
Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and make your own scenarios):
http://www.box.net/shared/xnx7q7hk0o ********************************************
Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP..
DU Donor
