(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 3.98%, or 49.64% to 45.66% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 3.83% for Obama (up from 0.9% two weeks ago). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 3.76% for Obama (up from 1.3% two weeks ago), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 4.16% (up from 1.6% two weeks ago) nationwide.

The reason these demographic percentages change is that we are projecting an increase in voter turnout this year among young people, females, African-Americans and Latinos. The pollsters are finally beginning to work these demographic increases into their polling methodology, which we can now see because of the similarities of the results.


GENDER CROSSTABS


The women’s vote continues to increase for Obama. If this is the year of the woman, it won’t be because of Sarah Palin … it will be because women will be the one single demographic that takes back our country this year from the scourge of the last eight years. The male vote is also coming around to Obama.











ETHNICITY CROSSTABS


The Latino vote is making huge gains for Obama lately, and could help tip the election to him even if he drops among white voters between now and Election Day. The number to watch for Obama in the white voter demographic is 40%. If he is able to sustain polling of 40% among white voters, then voting among other ethnic groups will put him over the top in the popular vote in November. Obama has maintained at least a 40% take among white voters for almost a month now.














AGE CROSSTABS


Two weeks ago Obama led in every age group except those between 45 and 64. He now leads in every age group below 65. Young voters are currently skyrocketing for Obama.






































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