1. ANALYSIS

We’ve seen the thread titles here on DU: Barack Obama leading by 10 in Colorado! By 8 in Missouri! By 8 in West Virginia, 17 in Oregon and 33 in New York!

Almost every time a blue state or swing state is polled lately, the result is very bad news for John McCain. And on the rare occasion that a red state is polled lately, the news gets worse for McCain. North Dakota is now in play, according to a new poll conducted by Minnesota State University Moorhead. More than in play, Obama is leading by 2 points. This comes a few days after Montana is shown with a very small 5 point lead for McCain. Could the Big Sky states be turning blue again?

McCain’s growing red state problem is evident in recent polls for Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina as well, and these are the states we know about. Other red states haven’t been polled yet in October, such as Arkansas, Arizona, Kentucky and Louisiana. The gap between the two candidates could be wider than we know.

Add to that list such blue states as Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island that haven’t been polled yet in October, and the gap could grow even more. Only then can we see how Obama could lead in nationwide polls by 10 points. In this political climate, good news for Obama is always just around the corner.

At this particular corner, Barack Obama is leading John McCain by more than 6.6 million votes nationwide, but it could very well be a 10 million vote lead. I dare PNAC to steal that without getting caught.

We were given an idea of what is possible this year back in July, and the map below from July 12 seems to be coming back to life:





Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Florida Obama 51, McCain 46, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 51 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 547 LV)
Missouri Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 546 LV)
Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.2, 551 LV)
New York Obama 64, McCain 31 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 547 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Dakota Obama 45, McCain 43 (MN State U Moorhead, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 771 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 31.9, McCain 63.0 (TvPoll.com, 10/11 +/- 3.5, 813 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 584 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 757 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


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