THE MATH – Sunday, March 9

Changes today: Popular vote, New Superdelegate (IL), Extra details

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,619.0 of 3,227.0 – 81.2%

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 9:
Hillary Clinton – 1,475.5 (549.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,598.5 (426.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 948.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/9/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 9:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/9/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 245 (Source: CBS 3/9/08)
Barack Obama – 210 (Source: AP 3/9/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 340

POPULAR VOTE

Status Quo as of March 9:
Barack Obama – 13,005,114
Hillary Clinton – 12,414,786
(Source: Wikipedia 3/9/08)

With Florida as of March 9:
Barack Obama – 13,581,328
Hillary Clinton – 13,285,772

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,619.0 of 3,540.0, or 74.0%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%

Clinton’s wins over 58%: (3)
Arkansas – 70%
New York – 58%
Rhode Island – 58%

Obama’s wins over 58%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%
Wisconsin – 58%

What the math is telling us: Hillary Clinton has already lost the race.