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The Daily Widget ~ THE MATH Weekly
Posted by phrigndumass in General Discussion: Presidential
Tue Apr 01st 2008, 02:56 PM
No, these aren't dance steps. They are the methods being touted as fair ways to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations at the convention.

Since holding a new primary in either state is now implausible, and since seating the delegations based on the January results violates the DNC rules, these ideas for a compromise are starting to gain traction.

The Florida Half-count would seat the delegation for Florida as the GOP did, with a half-vote for each pledged delegate and superdelegate from that state. Accepting this compromise would garner 52.5 delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 delegates for Senator Obama, or a net gain of 19 for Senator Clinton.

The "Michigan Compromise" is a bit trickier. Partly based on congressional district conventions according to the results of the January primary, Senator Clinton would gain 47 delegates to Senator Obama's 36 delegates, or a net gain of 11 for Senator Clinton. They would then look at the total "popular" vote percentages for the entire nation and divvy up the remaining 73 delegates that way. A probable turnout for this part would be 37 delegates for Senator Obama and 36 delegates for Senator Clinton, or a net gain of 1 for Senator Obama. The overall affect of the Michigan Compromise would garner 83 delegates for Senator Clinton and 73 delegates for Senator Obama, or a total net gain of 10 delegates for Senator Clinton in Michigan:

<Snip>

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., in a letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean, proposed that Michigan's 83 pledged delegates be chosen at congressional district conventions according to the results of the state's primary.

...

Under Stupak's formula, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who received 55 percent of the primary vote, would receive 47 delegates.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who pulled his name from Michigan's ballot, would receive 36 delegates. Many Obama supporters in Michigan voted for "uncommitted," which received 40 percent in the primary.

The remaining 73 delegates would be awarded based on the percentage of the popular vote garnered nationwide by Clinton and Obama after the last Democratic presidential primary is completed.

<end Snip>

Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23882892

************************************************

It's worth noting, however, that if a compromise is reached in either of these states, those counts won't be recognized in the contest totals until either Convention or until the rules and/or credentials committees ratify them.

Whatcha think?


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