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1. ANALYSIS

Forty-five state polls were released since Friday, and a common theme is beginning to reveal itself in the past week: As we approach Election Day, the number of Undecided voters is on the rise while the number of McCain supporters is dropping. At the same time, Barack Obama’s numbers are inching upward, now over 70 million votes. Voters who once supported John McCain are now giving Obama a second look.

We can see proof of this in Arizona, of all places. Obama’s poll numbers haven’t risen much there, but McCain’s poll numbers have dropped. Two new polls over the weekend show McCain leading in Arizona by only a couple points as the number of Undecideds in Arizona has risen to 15%.





Of all the states polled this weekend, Arizona is the only state to change columns. It moves from the Strong McCain column to the Lean McCain column today.

Further, Obama now leads McCain nationwide by more than 10 million votes, according to the totals from the state polls. With only eight days left, McCain would need to find 1,250,000 new votes every single day to make up the difference. If there were a “Huckabee Index” for the general election, this would be it

This will be an exciting week for us!



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alabama Obama 34, McCain 54 (AEA/Capital Survey, 10/16, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Arizona Obama 40, McCain 44 (Myers/Grove, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 41.5, McCain 43.5 (Zimmerman & Associates, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas Obama 41, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (Rocky Mountain News, 10/23, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Connecticut Obama 56, McCain 31 (Univ Connecticut, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 502 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 562 LV)
Georgia Obama 45, McCain 51 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 615 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 49 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Illinois Obama 59, McCain 35 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 631 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 40 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Kentucky Obama 39, McCain 55 (Research 2000, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 53, McCain 34 (Suffolk University, 10/21, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 37, B1, N1 (EPIC-MRA, 10/22, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Minnesota Obama 42, McCain 37 (St. Cloud State Univ, 10/18, +/- 4.6, 509 RV)
Mississippi Obama 33, McCain 46 (Univ South Alabama, 10/18, +/- 5.0, 403 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 47 (Research 2000, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 54, McCain 39 (Boston Globe/UNH, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 725 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Jersey Obama 56, McCain 39 (Marist College, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 628 LV)
New York Obama 65, McCain 29 (Marist College, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 527 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.6, 744 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio Obama 52, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/22, +/- 5.0, 408 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 46, B1, N2 (Univ of Cincinnati, 10/22, +/- 3.3, 886 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 3.1, 993 LV)
Oregon Obama 48, McCain 34 (Riley Research, 10/15, +/- 4.4, 499 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 10/22, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 608 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 41 (Morning Call, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
South Carolina Obama 35, McCain 55 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
South Dakota Obama 41, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Tennessee Obama 38, McCain 54 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 45, McCain 44 (Winthrop University, 10/9, +/- 3.8, 665 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/23, +/- 2.8, 1231 LV)
West Virginia Obama 43, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


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