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1. ANALYSIS

Thirty-two new state polls were released yesterday: 25 for swing states, 4 for blue states and 3 for red states. Barack Obama’s record for these polls is 25-5-2. And Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain continues to grow, up another 400,000 since yesterday. Obama now leads McCain by 10,824,459 likely votes with only seven days remaining until the election. McCain would need to earn 1,547,045 new votes every day between now and the election to catch up.





Only two states change columns today, both due to new Reuters/Zogby polls. Nevada moves to the left, from Lean Obama outside of the margin of error to the Weak Obama column today. And as expected, Indiana moves back into the margin of error, from Weak Obama to Lean Obama today.

Indiana isn’t alone among the swing states tightening since yesterday. Missouri was giving Obama a +1.0 lead yesterday, but 3 new polls cause his lead to slip a bit to +0.7 today. And North Carolina is also tightening, Obama +2.4 yesterday but down to Obama +1.3 today. We’ll keep a close eye on these states in the coming days, although they shouldn’t affect the outcome of the election, thanks to Virginia and Colorado voters.








(The Votemaster at Electoral-Vote.com must be sleeping in again today.)



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Arizona Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 61, McCain 34 (Rasmussen, 10/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 44 (Suffolk University, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Indiana Obama 44.0, McCain 50.2 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 42 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 645 LV)
Missouri Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Nevada Obama 48.2, McCain 44.0 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 655 LV)
New York Obama 62, McCain 31 (Siena College, 10/20, +/- 3.7, 721 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Public Policy Polling, 10/26, +/- 2.8, 1038 LV)
Ohio Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34.8, McCain 61.6 (TvPoll.com, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 720 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 672 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 43 (Temple University, 10/23, +/- 3.6, 761 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 40 (VA Commonwealth Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 817 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 44 (Washington Post, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 784 LV)
Virginia Obama 52.0, McCain 44.8 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 671 LV)
Washington Obama 55, McCain 34 (The Washington Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
West Virginia Obama 40.4, McCain 50.3 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


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