Latest Voter Registration Totals
Latest Early Voting Results
Latest Swing State Graphs
Latest Demographics and Crosstab Graphs


1. ANALYSIS

Twenty-four new state polls were released yesterday, giving Barack Obama a record of 17-7 for the day. Eighteen of the states polled are swing states, 2 are blue states and 4 are red states. The most interesting of the bunch is the Insider Advantage poll for Georgia, showing Obama trailing by only one point.

Mississippi is also tightening, as Rasmussen shows John McCain’s lead there dropping to single digits, moving it from the Strong McCain to the Weak McCain column today. Meanwhile, McCain’s lead is widening again in Arizona, with a new poll there showing him leading by 8 points. Arizona moves from the Lean McCain to the Weak McCain column today.

There was no change in the popular vote margin from yesterday, but McCain’s battle is still going uphill as the clock runs out. He now needs to find 1,802,566 votes every day between now and Election Day to catch up to Obama.





New polls for Florida and Ohio show Obama’s lead expanding, and these two states are now seeing some daylight away from edge-of-seat territory (+/- 3). Obama’s lead in Florida widens by 0.7 points to +3.1 today, and Ohio holds for a sixth straight day beyond +5 (now Obama +6.3).









2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Arizona Obama 41, McCain 49 (Northern AZ Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Arkansas Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 53, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 636 LV)
Florida Obama 49.2, McCain 44.4 (Datamar, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 630 LV)
Florida Obama 50, McCain 43 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 639 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/27, +/- 3.8, 637 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 47 (Howey-Gauge, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Louisiana Obama 38.3, McCain 50.6 (Southeast LA Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 503 LV)
Maine Obama 54, McCain 33 (Market Decisions, 10/20, +/- 5.0, 425 LV)
Mississippi Obama 45, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 48 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 40 (Suffolk University, 10/27, +/- 4.9, 450 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 39 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 39 (University of NH, 10/25, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
New Jersey Obama 53, McCain 38 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 3.9, 648 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 40 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 644 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 588 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 39 (Roanoke College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 614 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.






7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


EARLY VOTING RESULTS


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