THE MATH – Monday, April 7 – Two Weeks Before Pennsylvania

TIME: 6:45 a.m. Eastern (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,687.0 of 3,253.0 – 82.6%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 82 of 305 remaining superdelegates needed, or 26.9%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 242 of 305 remaining superdelegates needed, or 79.3%

The Huckabee Index – 63 (or 20.7% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 1,654.5 (369.0 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,502.5 (521.0 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 871.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 4/07/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 234 (Source: NBC 4/07/08 plus NC-6)
Hillary Clinton – 254 (Source: NBC 4/07/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 305

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 1,420.5 (206.0 short of HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,248.5 (378.0 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 4/07/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 30; Hillary Clinton – 15
PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 16; Hillary Clinton – 12
CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3
BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Total weighted* popular vote as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Status Quo unweighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 4/07/08)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936

Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, weighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583

With Florida only added, unweighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224

With Michigan only added, weighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Michigan only added, unweighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22): Polls are EVEN (ARG 4/3)
Guam (May 3): No Poll
Indiana (May 6): Clinton +3.0 (Research 2000 4/3)
North Carolina (May 6): Obama +23.0 (Rasmussen 4/5)
West Virginia (May 13): Clinton +28.0 (Rasmussen 3/20)
Kentucky (May 20): Clinton +29.0% (SurveyUSA 3/31)
Oregon (May 20): Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday) – NEW Poll coming this week!
Puerto Rico (June 1): No Poll
Montana (June 3): Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3): No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

********************************************

PROJECTIONS BASED ON POLLS:

Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,707.5 (81 above HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,527.5 (99 below HALF)

“Popular” Vote (unweighted) without Florida and Michigan:
Barack Obama – 16,547,603 (+841,777)
Hillary Clinton – 15,705,827

“Popular” Vote (unweighted) with Florida AND Michigan added*:
Barack Obama – 17,123,817 (+218,695)
Hillary Clinton – 16,905,122
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 238 of 305, or 78.0% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 235 of 306, or 76.6% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 227 of 317, or 71.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 223 of 318, or 70.0% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 86 of 305, or 28.2% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 104 of 306, or 33.8% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 91 of 317, or 28.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 108 of 318, or 33.8% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 209 of 305, or 68.5% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 206 of 306, or 67.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 198 of 317, or 62.3% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 194 of 318, or 60.8% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 115 of 305, or 37.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 133 of 306, or 43.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 120 of 317, or 37.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 137 of 318, or 42.9% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 34.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 65.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 36.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 63.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 35.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 64.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Obama needs 37.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Clinton needs 62.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

********************************************

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/...




Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.