(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from a daily average of the national poll crosstabs. When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 7.0%, or 51.1% to 44.1% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 6.1% for Obama (down from 7.0% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 6.2% for Obama (down from 6.6% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 6.5% (down from 7.1% last week) nationwide.

As the National Poll Widget below shows, Obama’s nationwide lead is +7.8% on average, or 0.8 points above what the state polls show for the popular vote (Obama +7.0%, see blue widget above). The daily tracking poll average lead of Obama +6.6% is more similar to the lead Obama is seeing in the state polls than the non-daily national poll lead of Obama +8.4.





The widget below is a quick summary of where all the demographics currently stand. The graphs following show these statistics over time.







GENDER CROSSTABS













ETHNICITY CROSSTABS















AGE CROSSTABS






































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