THE MATH Update - Illustrated Projections Based on Polls: Total Delegates and “Popular” Votes




Based on the latest polls for each upcoming contest, this first chart shows total projected delegates for each candidate. The current difference in delegates is 152.0. The projected totals, based on polls, show a difference from today of only two delegates:
Senator Obama – 1,938.5 (+150.0)
Senator Clinton – 1,788.5



This second chart shows the number of superdelegates needed to keep the other candidate from reaching the nomination total of 2,024 delegates, based on the projections above. This is each candidate’s “Huckabee Index” (Obama – 66; Clinton – 216).



This last chart shows the current “popular” votes and projected “popular” votes for each candidate, based on the latest polls. A turnout-by-population percentage for each state was calculated based on each state’s 2007 population, and each state’s history of a heavy democratic primary voter participation.

To illustrate Pennsylvania:
2007 Population – 12,432,792
Average turnout in 2008 for Democratic Primaries: 13.2%
Previous turnout when race was still not decided: 10.0% (1992)
Projected heavy turnout for Pennsylvania: 17.0%
Total projected Pennsylvania voters: 12,432,792 x 17.0% = 2,113,575
Latest Poll: Clinton +3 (51.5% to 48.5%)
Projected votes in Pennsylvania for Senator Obama: 2,113,575 x 48.5% = 1,025,084
Projected votes in Pennsylvania for Senator Clinton: 2,113,575 x 51.5% = 1,088,491


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Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota





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