Let's simplify things. There are only four numbers we need to remember:

90

The primary season is about 90% over. Remember last night as the numbers were coming in from Pennsylvania? Not much changed between 90% of the results in and 100% of the results in. What we have ahead of us in this primary has already been done nine times before.

137

Senator Obama's pledged delegate count is 137 below the halfway mark. Nancy Pelosi has informed us that a large number of superdelegates are standing by to endorse the candidate who earns the majority of pledged delegates. The way things are going now, Senator Obama will reach this threshold on May 20 during the Oregon and Kentucky primaries.

65

Once Senator Obama's pledged delegate total reaches Pelosi's number (or even before then), only 65 of the remaining superdelegates are needed for Senator Obama to clinch the nomination. That's only about 20% of the remaining superdelegates The pledged delegates for the remaining primaries will carry him the rest of the way.

80

In order for Senator Clinton to reach the nomination, she will need 80% of the remaining superdelegates to agree with each other and endorse her. And this would be on top of the pledged delegates she is expected to receive in the remaining primary contests. The likelihood of 80% of the remaining superdelegates agreeing with each other is very low. So far, the superdelegates who have already endorsed have split roughly 53/47. It would be much more probable for the remaining superdelegates to follow that trend, go 50/50 or 60/40, or at a ratio of 2:1 at the very most.


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More detailed information can be found here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discu...