The Daily Widget ~ THE MATH Weekly - THE MATH Update - Introducing New and Improved: Super Huck 3.0!

First there was the Huckabee Index (phrigndumass) ...

62 ... the number of remaining superdelegates Senator Obama needs to make it
mathematically impossible for Senator Clinton to reach 2,024.

Then there was Huck 2.0, the Upgrade (dailykos) ... (paraphrased)

A number of the superdelegates are add-ons and aren't even picked yet (some
won't be picked until after the primaries are over), so that reduces the number
of remaining superdelegates to endorse by about 65, thus making the Huck 2.0
number somewhere around 43.

And now we introduce, New and Improved, Super Huck 3.0!!!1!! (demconwatch)

"Mr. Super" is an anonymous elected superdelegate who writes on demconwatch that almost all the elected superdelegates (governors, senators, representatives) are members of the Pelosi Club (will endorse the candidate who reaches the halfway mark of pledged delegates). The nonelected supers (there are about 126 DNC supers left) are up for grabs:

If anybody knows superdelegates it's Mr. Super. In his latest post he gives a rundown of where he thinks the remaining superdelegates are in their decision.

Governors (7): All Pelosi Club members, though Kentucky's Steve Beshear could conceivably endorse Senator Clinton, and North Carolina's Mike Easley could endorse Senator Obama.

US Senators (19): As colleagues in the Senate, it's feasible that all could be Pelosi Club members.

Undeclared House Freshmen (18): All Pelosi Club. there 40 freshmen in the class of 2006, the 18 who have not endorsed look to be facing tough re-elects and don't want to risk splitting their base by picking a side. It's not what they were elected to do.

House members (52): Of the remaining House members, most are Pelosi Club. There are a few who may endorse prior to their state's primary, that's a total of nine members when you take out the Freshmen who were referenced above.

DNC Members (126): Virtually all up for grabs, save for a few Party luminaries.

I honestly believe that the peacemakers in all of this could be Jimmy Carter, who though he was not a popular president has since become the most popular ex-president, and the award-winning and Al Gore.

Now our definition of Pelosi Club is a superdelegate that commits to voting for the delegate winner. Not sure if Mr. Super is including the ones that say they'll vote for the leader of the Popular Vote. Hopefully he'll drop in and let us know.

Update: Mr. Super has confirmed that, like us, he considers the Pelosi Club going for the leader of the pledged delegates.

Posted by Matt at 4:32 PM ( http://demconwatch.blogspot.com )

Senator Obama's chances of winning the most pledged delegates is about 99.99%. This will most likely occur on May 20, during the Oregon and Kentucky primaries.

I have projected Senator Clinton's total pledged delegate count to be 1,524.5 from all the primaries and caucuses (see THE MATH). She currently has 256 superdelegates who have endorsed her (see demconwatch), which would bring her total delegates to 1,780.5.

According to Mr. Super's quote above, Senator Clinton might expect endorsements by:
- 1 Governor
- 0 Senators
- 0 Freshman Representatives
- 9 Non-freshman Representatives
- 126 non-elected DNC Supers (Hell, let's give her all of these)

That's 136 of the remaining superdelegates, bringing her total possible delegate count to 1,916.5, or about 1,917 if you round it.

1,917 expected - 2,024 needed = -107

So, the Super Huck 3.0 number is -107 (negative 107). Negative 107 means Senator Clinton has already lost this entire contest, as there would be no possible way for her to reach 2,024, according to Mr. Super.

Many thanks to the folks at DemConWatch (and Mr. Super) for all their work! There's much, much more at their website, so go check it out:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com /