THE MATH – Tuesday, April 29 – One Week Before North Carolina & Indiana (or Four Days Before Guam!)

7:00 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,845.0 of 3,253.0 – 87.5%

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THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 90 of 284 remaining superdelegates needed, or 31.7%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 214 of 284 remaining superdelegates needed, or 75.4%

The Huckabee Index – 70 (or 24.6% of remaining superdelegates needed)

Super Huck 3.0! Index – Negative 90 (-90) (more information)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet (Feel free to download)



PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 1,689.5 (63 above HALF) <--- Expected to reach halfway mark on May 20
Hillary Clinton – 1,545.5 (81 below HALF)

(Chart includes current superdelegate counts)



Projected Hybrid “Popular” Vote at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 16,770,112 (+660,322)
Hillary Clinton – 16,109,790



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TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 1,735.5 (288.5 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,601.5 (422.5 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 692.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 4/29/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 245 (Source: NBC 4/29/08)
Hillary Clinton – 265 (Source: NBC 4/29/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 284

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 1,490.5 (136.0 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,336.5 (290.0 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 408.0
(Source: Wikipedia 4/29/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 30; Hillary Clinton – 16

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 16; Hillary Clinton – 13

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 8 Red

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HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 14,735,413 (+613,692)
Hillary Clinton – 14,121,451
(Source: Wikipedia 4/29/08)

With Florida only added, as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 15,311,627 (+319,190)
Hillary Clinton – 14,992,437

With Florida and Michigan added, as of April 29*:
Barack Obama – 15,311,627
Hillary Clinton – 15,320,746 (+9,119)
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

Special Sidenote:
The majority of Senator Clinton’s total hybrid “popular” votes (54%) have come from only 5 states:
CA – 2,608,184
TX – 1,459,814
PA – 1,259,466
OH – 1,212,362
NY – 1,068,496
Total – 7,608,322 of 14,121,451 (54%)

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 219 of 284, or 76.9% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 215 of 285, or 75.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 207 of 296, or 69.8% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 203 of 297, or 68.2% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 85 of 284, or 29.8% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 102 of 285, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 89 of 296, or 29.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 106 of 297, or 35.5% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 198 of 284, or 69.5% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 194 of 285, or 67.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 186 of 296, or 62.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 182 of 297, or 61.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 106 of 284, or 37.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 123 of 285, or 43.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 110 of 296, or 37.0% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 127 of 297, or 42.6% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 31.1% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 68.9% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 33.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 66.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 32.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 67.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 34.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 65.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

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Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/...

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GENERAL ELECTION SECTION

Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed):
Obama – 243
McCain – 269
Ties – 26
(Source: Electoral-Vote.com 4/28)

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,272,518 (45.2%)
McCain – 58,116,615 (45.9%)
Undecided/Other – 11,331,866 (8.9%)







Check out a preview of the new spreadsheet for the General Election Math!

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