THE MATH Update – Monday, May 5 – A Range of Possibilities for North Carolina and Indiana

4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

********************************************

First, a visual:




********************************************

TODAY’S STANDINGS:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,849.0 of 3,253.0 – 87.6%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,744.5 (280 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,608.5 (416 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 677

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,491.5 (135 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,339.5 (287 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 404

Senator Obama needs 31.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 68.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 80 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 29.3%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 212 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%

Huckabee Index – 61 (or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed)

********************************************

BEST SCENARIO FOR SENATOR OBAMA IN NORTH CAROLINA AND INDIANA

POLL NC: Obama +10 (PPP)
POLL IN: Obama +2 (Zogby)

The Standings Would Be:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,845.5 (179 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,694.5 (330 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 490

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,592.5 (34 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,425.5 (201 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217

Senator Obama needs 11.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 88.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 80 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 29.3%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 212 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%

Huckabee Index – 61 (or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed)

********************************************

BEST SCENARIO FOR SENATOR CLINTON IN NORTH CAROLINA AND INDIANA

POLL NC: Obama +3 (Insider Advantage)
POLL IN: Clinton +12 (Survey USA)

The Standings Would Be:

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

Estimated Total Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,836.5 (188 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,703.5 (321 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 490

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 253
Hillary Clinton – 269
Remaining Superdelegates – 273

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,583.5 (43 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,434.5 (192 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217

Senator Obama needs 15.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 84.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 89 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 32.6%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 203 of 273 remaining superdelegates needed, or 74.4%

Huckabee Index – 70 (or 25.6% of remaining superdelegates needed)