This post is compiled and written jointly by grantcart and phrigndumass


I) Words Matter. Numbers Matter. Having just lived through 8 years of denial its time to show that the Democratic Party is not wishy washy but lives by clear analysis of facts and here are the facts:





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II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 27 add on Super Delegates that those that come from the following states Obama won decisively he will carry all of these add on delegates:

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008

We also know that he will get these 7 super delegates when he gets the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th.

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Gov. Roy Romer (CO) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)


III) When we add these "Highly Likely Obama Supporters" and "Highly Likely Clinton Supporters" it means that of the remaining 214 super delegates Hillary has to win 87.9%
Obama needs only 26 super delegates or only 12.1%.


IV) Given the trends since Super Tuesday below we find that a Clinton victory is no longer mathematically possible and that an Obama victory is mathematically certain.





V) Therefore the members of DU who have added their names below believe that we now have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. That while it will take the rest of the world to catch up with reality we don't think that the pretense that there is any rational chance that Senator Obama will not be our nominee should be maintained here.


Respectfully submitted,

Grantcart and Phrigndumass


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