THE MATH – Wednesday, May 7 – After North Carolina and Indiana

3:30 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Please Note: We believe that we now have a mathematical presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for President of the United States: Barack Obama. If you agree with this statement, please click the link below and co-sign the document by replying and recommending. Thank you!

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Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,036.0 of 3,253.0 – 93.3%

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THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below and adding well-known add-on superdelegates for both candidates:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 42 of 213 remaining superdelegates needed, or 19.7%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 190 of 213 remaining superdelegates needed, or 89.2%

The Huckabee Index – 23 (or 10.8% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet (Feel free to download)



PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 1,692.5 (66 above HALF) <--- Expected to reach halfway mark on May 20
Hillary Clinton – 1,542.5 (84 below HALF)



Projected Hybrid “Popular” Vote at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 17,404,174 (+490,771)
Hillary Clinton – 16,913,403



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TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 1,846.5 (178 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,700.5 (324 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 483
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 5/07/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 256 (Source: NBC 5/07/08)
Hillary Clinton – 273 (Source: NBC 5/07/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 266

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 1,590.5 (36 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,427.5 (199 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 217
(Source: Wikipedia 5/07/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 32; Hillary Clinton – 17

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 17; Hillary Clinton – 14

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 17 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 9 Red

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HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 16,257,094 (+831,016)
Hillary Clinton – 15,426,078
(Source: Wikipedia 5/07/08)

With Florida only added, as of May 7:
Barack Obama – 16,833,308 (+536,244)
Hillary Clinton – 16,297,064

With Florida and Michigan added, as of May 7*:
Barack Obama – 16,833,308 (+207,935)
Hillary Clinton – 16,625,373
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

Special Sidenote:
Half of Senator Clinton’s total hybrid “popular” votes (50%) have come from only 5 states:
CA – 2,608,184
TX – 1,459,814
PA – 1,259,466
OH – 1,212,362
NY – 1,068,496
Total – 7,608,322 of 15,426,078

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 197 of 213, or 92.3% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 192 of 214, or 89.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 184 of 225, or 81.8% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 180 of 226, or 79.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 36 of 213, or 16.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 52 of 214, or 24.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 39 of 225, or 17.3% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 56 of 226, or 24.8% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 185 of 213, or 86.9% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 181 of 214, or 84.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 173 of 225, or 76.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 169 of 226, or 74.6% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 47 of 213, or 22.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 64 of 214, or 29.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 51 of 225, or 22.4% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 68 of 226, or 29.9% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 12.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 87.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 16.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 83.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 14.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 85.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 19.1% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 80.9% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

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Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/...

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GENERAL ELECTION SECTION

Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed):
Obama – 264
McCain – 263
Ties – 11
(Source: Electoral-Vote.com 5/07)

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,195,505 (45.9%)
McCain – 55,770,552 (44.0%)
Undecided/Other – 12,754,943 (10.1%)







Check out a preview of the new spreadsheet for the General Election Math!

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