THE MATH (GE Edition) – Friday, May 16

Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 237
McCain – 290
Ties – 11
Needed to Win – 270
Source: electoral-vote.com

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,926,827 (45.7%)
McCain – 55,822,826 (44.1%)
Undecided/Other – 12,971,346 (10.2%)

Strength of Projection – 35.5%

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Projected Electoral Votes




Tracking – Projected Electoral Votes



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Electoral Vote Strength




Tracking – Electoral Vote Strength



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Projected Popular Vote




Tracking – Projected Popular Vote



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Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 142 (26.4%)
McCain – 97 (18.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 230 (42.8%)
McCain – 221 (41.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 317 (58.9%)
McCain – 221 (41.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 230 (42.8%)
McCain – 308 (57.2%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 441 (82.0%)
McCain – 97 (18.0%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 142 (26.4%)
McCain – 396 (73.6%)


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Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)


Tracking – Poll Averages



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Obama Projected Win Index




Tracking – Strength of Projection



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Link to spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/df16y7u4ow


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