THE MATH Monday, March 102:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)
Changes today:
- Popular vote (IA,ME,NV,WA added)
- Superdelegate totals updated
- More extra details
Delegates needed to win nomination 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in 2,619.0 of 3,227.0
81.2%
TOTAL DELEGATESEstimated Total Delegates as of March 10:
Hillary Clinton 1,477.5 (547.0 short)
Barack Obama 1,599.5 (425.0 short)
Remaining Delegates 945.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/10/08)
PLEDGED DELEGATESEstimated Pledged Delegates as of March 10:
Hillary Clinton 1,230.5
Barack Obama 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/10/08)
Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.
SUPERDELEGATESSuperdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton 247 (Source: AP 3/10/08)
Barack Obama 211 (Source: AP 3/10/08)
Remaining Superdelegates 337
POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)Status Quo as of March 10 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton 12,748,162
(Source: Wikipedia 3/10/08 plus states listed above)
Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 10 (includes WA):
Barack Obama 12,533,944
Hillary Clinton 12,150,484
Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 10:
Barack Obama 471,170
Hillary Clinton 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)
With Florida only added, as of March 10 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton 13,619,148
With Michigan only added, as of March 10
* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama 13,388,857
Hillary Clinton 13,076,471
*Uncommitted 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasnt on the ballot)With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 10
* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA):
Barack Obama 13,965,071
Hillary Clinton 13,947,457
*Uncommitted 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasnt on the ballot)
FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOSThese are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.
If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,619.0 of 3,540.0, or
74.0%.
Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)
The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigans slate of delegates are seated.
Scenario 1 Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%, in all remaining contestsScenario 2 New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%
Scenario 3 Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%Scenario 4 Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%
Scenario 5 Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%
Scenario 6 Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%
Scenario 7 Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%
Scenario 8 Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%
Scenario 9 Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%
Clintons wins over 58%: (3)
Arkansas 70%
New York 58%
Rhode Island 58%
Obamas wins over 58%: (18)
Idaho 80%
Hawaii 76%
Alaska 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska 68%
Washington 68%
Colorado 67%
Georgia 66%
Minnesota 66%
Illinois 65%
Virginia 64%
Louisiana 62%
North Dakota 62%
Wyoming 61%
Maine 60%
Maryland 60%
Vermont 59%
Wisconsin 58%
MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGANDemocratic National Committees official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:
"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along,
we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time.
The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.
Source:
http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_st... (emphasis mine)
PENNSYLVANIAThere are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.
If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 60.6% in all the remaining contests, under status quo.
If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 56.4% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan.
Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70%, would she catch up to Senator Obama.That's a very tall order, everything considered.
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